Trethomas Bluebirds look poised for a high-scoring outing, with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 2.5 conceded at home against similar-strength opposition. Caerphilly Athletic, meanwhile, averages just 0.33 goals a game and concedes two on the road, suggesting a defensive battle that could still see plenty of firepower. The model projects a 54% chance of a home win, 22% draw, and 24% away win, making a Trethomas victory the favourite outcome. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.6% chance. The Bluebirds’ recent two-game winning streak and a 3-2 win over Carmarthen Town add confidence, while Caerphilly’s two-game run and a 1-0 victory over Baglan Dragons hint at resilience. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.5%), Under 7.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.2%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.8%), Under 6.5 (93.2%), and Home +2 handicap (89.5%).
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 2.13 | 2.31 | 2.23 | 1.00 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.10 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Caerphilly Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerphilly Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Caerphilly Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 0.47 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Caerphilly Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 92.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 91.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 89.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 5-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-2 |
Caerphilly Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |