This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.97
1.40
1.00
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.20
1.25
1.38
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
0.46
1.67
0.33
2.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.7%
1-1
11.5%
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
0-3
7.3%
1-3 ✓
6.1%
1-0
4.5%
TSV Hartberg goals ↓
Sturm Graz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
11%
12%
7.3%
3.4%
1
4.5%
11%
9.8%
6.1%
2.9%
2
2.3%
4.4%
4.1%
2.6%
1.2%
3
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TSV Hartberg goals (down), columns = Sturm Graz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sturm Graz
2.09
Red Bull Salzburg
2.09
Lask Linz
1.62
Austria Vienna
1.57
Rapid Vienna
1.41
Wolfsberger AC
1.39
TSV Hartberg
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt
1.22
FC BW Linz
1.00
SCR Altach
0.97
WSG Wattens
0.81
Austria Lustenau
0.66
TSV Hartberg is 0.77 points worse than Sturm Graz in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Red Bull Salzburg
2.31
Sturm Graz
1.75
TSV Hartberg
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.47
Lask Linz
1.34
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
Austria Klagenfurt
1.25
Austria Vienna
1.14
FC BW Linz
1.03
WSG Wattens
0.91
SCR Altach
0.84
Austria Lustenau
0.69
TSV Hartberg is 0.28 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
0.72
Red Bull Salzburg
0.91
Austria Vienna
1.03
Lask Linz
1.03
Rapid Vienna
1.09
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
SCR Altach
1.25
FC BW Linz
1.50
Austria Klagenfurt
1.56
TSV Hartberg
1.62
WSG Wattens
1.72
Austria Lustenau
1.81
TSV Hartberg is 0.90 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 0.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
59%
Austria Vienna
56%
Lask Linz
55%
Rapid Vienna
54%
TSV Hartberg
53%
Sturm Graz
50%
Wolfsberger AC
50%
WSG Wattens
48%
Austria Klagenfurt
48%
FC BW Linz
44%
SCR Altach
44%
Austria Lustenau
40%
TSV Hartberg is 3.0 percentage points better than Sturm Graz in terms of average possession (53% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
TSV Hartberg
For 4.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
For 5.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
TSV Hartberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.2
4.7
4.8
4.6
23.7
24.7
22.7
vs Stronger (16)
9.6
10.4
8.9
4.8
5.5
4.1
24.6
27.9
21.2
vs Similar (34)
9.0
8.6
9.3
4.6
4.4
4.8
23.3
23.1
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
46%
46%
76%
83%
69%
70%
71%
69%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
24%
17%
31%
30%
29%
31%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
4.3
4.7
3.9
24.6
24.4
24.7
vs Stronger (4)
8.8
9.5
8.0
1.8
3.0
0.5
22.2
21.5
23.0
vs Similar (22)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.8
5.1
4.4
25.7
25.6
25.8
vs Weaker (24)
10.3
10.5
10.2
4.3
4.6
4.1
24.0
23.7
24.2
% over line
64%
68%
60%
64%
64%
64%
74%
76%
72%
% under line
36%
32%
40%
36%
36%
36%
26%
24%
28%
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.6
Wolfsberger AC
10.5
Sturm Graz
10.1
SCR Altach
10.0
WSG Wattens
9.8
Rapid Vienna
9.8
Lask Linz
9.8
Austria Lustenau
9.4
Red Bull Salzburg
9.3
FC BW Linz
9.2
Austria Klagenfurt
9.2
TSV Hartberg
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Austria Vienna
5.5
Rapid Vienna
5.3
Austria Lustenau
4.8
TSV Hartberg
4.8
SCR Altach
4.6
Wolfsberger AC
4.6
Red Bull Salzburg
4.6
Sturm Graz
4.5
Lask Linz
4.5
Austria Klagenfurt
4.2
WSG Wattens
4.1
FC BW Linz
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Austria Vienna
26.9
Rapid Vienna
26.9
SCR Altach
26.9
Lask Linz
26.4
FC BW Linz
24.8
Sturm Graz
24.6
Wolfsberger AC
24.3
Austria Lustenau
24.0
Austria Klagenfurt
23.9
TSV Hartberg
23.7
WSG Wattens
23.4
Red Bull Salzburg
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.5%
Under 9.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.2%
Under 3.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.7%
Under 21.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.65
0.80
0.50
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.31
0.67
0.33
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.65
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.47
0.62
0.62
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.15
1.00
0.00
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
TSV Hartberg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maximilian Entrup42%
Donis Avdijaj33%
Christoph Lang29%
Dominik Prokop12%
Christoph Urdl11%
Dominik Frieser9%
Maximilian Fillafer7%
Ruben Providence7%
Jurgen Heil6%
Ousmane Diakité3%
Mamadou Sangare3%
Ibane Bowat3%
Tobias Kainz3%
Michael Steinwender0%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Manuel Pfeifer0%
Thomas Rotter0%
Paul Komposch0%
Angelo Brückner0%
Jürgen Lemmerer0%
Julian Halwachs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jurgen Heil31%
Mamadou Sangare23%
Dominik Prokop22%
Thomas Rotter20%
Maximilian Entrup19%
Donis Avdijaj19%
Manuel Pfeifer18%
Ousmane Diakité16%
Julian Halwachs15%
Raphael Sallinger15%
Tobias Kainz12%
Christoph Lang12%
Christoph Urdl11%
Ruben Providence10%
Ibane Bowat10%
Paul Komposch9%
Maximilian Fillafer7%
Dominik Frieser3%
Michael Steinwender0%
Angelo Brückner0%
Jürgen Lemmerer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dominik Prokop16%
Donis Avdijaj15%
Mamadou Sangare13%
Dominik Frieser12%
Christoph Lang12%
Maximilian Entrup12%
Christoph Urdl11%
Manuel Pfeifer9%
Angelo Brückner9%
Ruben Providence7%
Tobias Kainz6%
Jurgen Heil6%
Paul Komposch3%
Raphael Sallinger3%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Thomas Rotter0%
Jürgen Lemmerer0%
Maximilian Fillafer0%
Ibane Bowat0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maximilian Entrup42%
Donis Avdijaj15%
Christoph Lang12%
Ruben Providence3%
Mamadou Sangare3%
Dominik Prokop3%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Dominik Frieser0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Tobias Kainz0%
Manuel Pfeifer0%
Thomas Rotter0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Christoph Urdl0%
Paul Komposch0%
Angelo Brückner0%
Jürgen Lemmerer0%
Maximilian Fillafer0%
Ibane Bowat0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Sturm Graz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mika Biereth37%
Otar Kiteishvili25%
Alexander Prass17%
Manprit Sarkaria16%
Tomi Horvat15%
William Bøving15%
Szymon Włodarczyk14%
Jon Gorenc Stanković12%
Seedy Jatta10%
Amady Camara10%
Gregory Wüthrich8%
Mohammed Fuseini7%
Dimitri Lavalėe7%
David Affengruber5%
Jusuf Gazibegović5%
David Schnegg0%
Alexandar Borković0%
Stefan Hierländer0%
Bryan Silva Teixeira0%
Kjell Scherpen0%
Amadou Dante0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Max Johnston0%
Javier Serrano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitri Lavalėe30%
Otar Kiteishvili28%
Javier Serrano23%
Stefan Hierländer21%
David Schnegg18%
Jon Gorenc Stanković18%
Alexander Prass17%
Gregory Wüthrich16%
Bryan Silva Teixeira13%
David Affengruber12%
Jusuf Gazibegović12%
Mika Biereth11%
Manprit Sarkaria8%
Max Johnston7%
Amadou Dante6%
Seedy Jatta5%
Kjell Scherpen4%
William Bøving2%
Alexandar Borković0%
Tomi Horvat0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Mohammed Fuseini0%
Amady Camara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Otar Kiteishvili17%
Tomi Horvat15%
William Bøving12%
Alexander Prass12%
Jusuf Gazibegović12%
David Schnegg12%
Mika Biereth11%
Manprit Sarkaria8%
Bryan Silva Teixeira7%
Amadou Dante6%
David Affengruber5%
Max Johnston4%
Szymon Włodarczyk3%
Gregory Wüthrich3%
Alexandar Borković0%
Stefan Hierländer0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Kjell Scherpen0%
Dimitri Lavalėe0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Javier Serrano0%
Mohammed Fuseini0%
Amady Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Otar Kiteishvili19%
Mika Biereth16%
Alexander Prass12%
Manprit Sarkaria12%
Tomi Horvat10%
Szymon Włodarczyk8%
David Affengruber5%
Seedy Jatta5%
Amady Camara5%
Jon Gorenc Stanković2%
William Bøving2%
Jusuf Gazibegović2%
Gregory Wüthrich0%
David Schnegg0%
Alexandar Borković0%
Stefan Hierländer0%
Bryan Silva Teixeira0%
Kjell Scherpen0%
Dimitri Lavalėe0%
Amadou Dante0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Max Johnston0%
Javier Serrano0%
Mohammed Fuseini0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
SA (23)
€9m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
TSV Hartberg's squad is €42m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€10m vs €52m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's attack is €23m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€3m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
TSV Hartberg's midfield is €11m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€3m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
FBL (8)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's defence is €8m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€5m vs €13m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Vienna
Lask Linz
Wolfsberger AC
Rapid Vienna
Austria Klagenfurt
FC BW Linz
SCR Altach
WSG Wattens
Austria Lustenau