Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils Result & Analysis

Tukums II are tipped to win, a 42% chance that the Latvian side will come away with the victory, with a 28% draw and a 30% chance for JFK Ventspils. The model expects an average of 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Tukums II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, usually score 1.5 goals and concede 1.86, while JFK Ventspils, on the road against a weaker side, average 0.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 75% chance and Under 3.5 with a 73% chance. The home win probability is 42%, the draw probability 28%, and the away win probability 30%.

The draw shocked everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong. Tukums II had been on a shaky run, their last five results showing two straight defeats, while JFK Ventspils had just drawn their previous match. The final score of 1-1 confirmed a draw, the model’s prediction of a home win with a 42% probability proved incorrect. The model’s selections over 1.5 and under 3.5 were both hit, with probabilities of 75% and 73% respectively. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, at 13.6% probability, materialised, and the expected total of 2.6 goals was met by the 2-goal tally.