Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for JFK Ventspils, 31% for Tukums II and 27% for a draw. The expected total is three goals, yet the most likely total is two, reflecting the 24% probability of that outcome. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% chance. Tukums II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.93 conceded, while JFK Ventspils, away against a weaker side, averages 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 with an 80.5% probability. The recent form narrative shows Tukums II after two straight defeats and a heavy 2-6 loss, while JFK Ventspils comes off a draw. The final score of 1-1 confirms the predicted draw, though the model still favoured the away side.

The pre-match favourite, the away win, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call incorrect. Tukums II, after two straight defeats, had been struggling at home, while JFK Ventspils, coming off a draw, had been in better form away. The model’s prediction of an away win carried a 43% probability, yet the result was a stalemate. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.5% chance, and it hit as the match produced two goals. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the expected total of three goals was not reached.