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Tukums II vs Rīgas FS II Result & Analysis

Date: 02/11/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 1-2
Tukums II
Tukums II
Vs
20%
23%
58%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums II win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-941W12L12L20W02L09L07L22D14L22DH·VAL09/08H·SMI25/08A·MĀR31/08H·OGR14/09A·SUP22/09A·RIG27/09A·SKA05/10A·PRO09/10A·JDF19/10A·LEE28/10
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.631.072.401.472.87
vs Stronger (30)1.272.631.072.401.472.87
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W30W31W21W02L11D51W03L10W20WH·PRO10/08A·SMI17/08H·MĀR24/08A·OGR31/08H·SUP15/09A·RIG22/09H·SKA28/09A·JDF06/10H·LEE20/10A·RĒZ26/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.731.073.501.001.861.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.751.083.291.292.000.80
vs Weaker (18)2.721.063.670.781.781.33
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2 ✓
9.8%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
7.1%
1-3
6.9%
0-3
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
5.5%
Tukums II goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
01234
04.8%7.1%8.4%5.9%3.1%
13.5%10%9.8%6.9%3.6%
22.6%5.5%5.7%4.0%2.1%
31.0%2.1%2.2%1.6%0.8%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Tukums II is 1.69 points worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Tukums II is 1.77 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 2.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Tukums II is 1.92 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.62 vs 0.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L02L00D02L03L01L12L02L20WH·VAL09/08H·SMI25/08A·MĀR31/08H·OGR14/09A·SUP22/09A·RIG27/09A·SKA05/10A·PRO09/10A·JDF19/10A·LEE28/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.270.401.070.471.47
vs Stronger (30)0.431.270.401.070.471.47
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W10W10W01L00D31W02L00D10WH·PRO10/08A·SMI17/08H·MĀR24/08A·OGR31/08H·SUP15/09A·RIG22/09H·SKA28/09A·JDF06/10H·LEE20/10A·RĒZ26/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.501.810.441.000.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.330.331.430.291.200.40
vs Weaker (18)1.500.612.110.560.890.67
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W00D10W20W00D06L06L10W12L02LH·VAL09/08H·SMI25/08A·MĀR31/08H·OGR14/09A·SUP22/09A·RIG27/09A·SKA05/10A·PRO09/10A·JDF19/10A·LEE28/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.370.671.331.001.40
vs Stronger (30)0.831.370.671.331.001.40
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W11D01L11D20W01L10W10WH·PRO10/08A·SMI17/08H·MĀR24/08A·OGR31/08H·SUP15/09A·RIG22/09H·SKA28/09A·JDF06/10H·LEE20/10A·RĒZ26/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.571.690.560.860.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.420.751.861.000.800.40
vs Weaker (18)1.220.441.560.220.890.67
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
TI wins
0
Draws
4
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums II vs Rīgas FS II · H/A from TI
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/24ARīgas FS II Vs TI6-0
11/08/23ARīgas FS II Vs TI0-1
15/04/23HTI Vs Rīgas FS II0-3
05/11/22ARīgas FS II Vs TI6-0
22/07/22HTI Vs Rīgas FS II0-5

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/24ALeevon / PPK Vs TI2-2
19/10/24AJDFS Alberts Vs TI4-1
09/10/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs TI2-2
05/10/24ASkanste Vs TI7-0
27/09/24ARiga FC II Vs TI9-0
22/09/24ASuper Nova Vs TI2-0
14/09/24HTI Vs Ogre United2-0
31/08/24AMārupe Vs TI2-1
25/08/24HTI Vs Smiltene1-2
09/08/24HTI Vs Valmiera II4-1

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24ARēzekne FA Vs RFI0-2
20/10/24HRFI Vs Leevon / PPK1-0
06/10/24AJDFS Alberts Vs RFI3-0
28/09/24HRFI Vs Skanste5-1
22/09/24ARiga FC II Vs RFI1-1
15/09/24HRFI Vs Super Nova0-2
31/08/24AOgre United Vs RFI1-2
24/08/24HRFI Vs Mārupe3-1
17/08/24ASmiltene Vs RFI0-3
10/08/24HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.02
HomeLLWLW1.25
AwayLLDLD0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals3.663.124.15
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %70%67%73%
Over 3.5 %44%33%54%
Scored1.281.171.38
Conceded2.381.962.77
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet16%12%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.92
HomeWWLWW2.35
AwayWWDLW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%77%42%
AVG goals3.724.273.12
Over 1.5 %86%88%83%
Over 2.5 %70%73%67%
Over 3.5 %50%62%38%
Scored2.543.381.62
Conceded1.180.881.50
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet36%50%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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