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Tukums II vs Smiltene Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 2-1
Tukums II
Tukums II
Vs
49%
23%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Tukums II wināœ“ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene wināœ— Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-750W20W05L06L12L10W03L33D12L27LH·DIN15/10A·VAL21/10H·JDF29/10A·RÄŖG05/11H·SMI13/11H·VAL07/04H·RÄŖG15/04A·JDF23/04H·SKA30/04A·PRO06/05
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.601.502.441.002.79
vs Stronger (30)1.272.601.502.441.002.79
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-727L02L11D01L21W21W12L04L10W04LA·GRO16/10H·SAL22/10A·DIN30/10H·JDF05/11A·TUK13/11A·JDF08/04H·SKA14/04A·PRO23/04A·JFK29/04H·SAL07/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.873.200.793.070.943.31
vs Stronger (6)0.833.671.334.000.333.33
vs Similar (17)0.943.180.752.751.113.56
vs Weaker (7)0.712.860.333.001.002.75
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.2%
Under 2.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.1%
Under 3.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.8%
No
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.4%
2-1 āœ“
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
2-0
5.7%
3-2
4.8%
1-0
4.7%
Tukums II goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
01234
03.5%3.3%3.2%1.7%0.6%
14.7%9.4%6.7%3.5%1.3%
25.7%8.9%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.9%6.1%4.8%2.5%1.0%
42.0%3.2%2.5%1.3%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
RÄ«gas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo RÄ«ga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Tukums II is 0.42 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.85).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
RÄ«gas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo RÄ«ga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Tukums II is 0.38 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.19).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
RÄ«gas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo RÄ«ga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Tukums II is 0.50 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (2.08 vs 2.58).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D03L03L11D10W01L12L02L02LH·DIN15/10A·VAL21/10H·JDF29/10A·RÄŖG05/11H·SMI13/11H·VAL07/04H·RÄŖG15/04A·JDF23/04H·SKA30/04A·PRO06/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.270.621.190.361.36
vs Stronger (30)0.501.270.621.190.361.36
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L10W00D11D10W12L02L10W02LA·GRO16/10H·SAL22/10A·DIN30/10H·JDF05/11A·TUK13/11A·JDF08/04H·SKA14/04A·PRO23/04A·JFK29/04H·SAL07/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.370.431.140.501.56
vs Stronger (6)0.172.170.331.670.002.67
vs Similar (17)0.591.410.501.120.671.67
vs Weaker (7)0.430.570.330.670.500.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W20W02L03L01L00D02L21W10W25LH·DIN15/10A·VAL21/10H·JDF29/10A·RÄŖG05/11H·SMI13/11H·VAL07/04H·RÄŖG15/04A·JDF23/04H·SKA30/04A·PRO06/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.330.881.250.641.43
vs Stronger (30)0.771.330.881.250.641.43
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L01L01L10W11D00D02L00D02LA·GRO16/10H·SAL22/10A·DIN30/10H·JDF05/11A·TUK13/11A·JDF08/04H·SKA14/04A·PRO23/04A·JFK29/04H·SAL07/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.830.361.930.441.75
vs Stronger (6)0.671.501.002.330.330.67
vs Similar (17)0.351.760.251.620.441.89
vs Weaker (7)0.292.290.002.330.502.25
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.6%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 2.570.2%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
TI wins
0
Draws
1
SMI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums II vs Smiltene · H/A from TI
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/22HTI Vs Smiltene1-2
30/07/22ASmiltene Vs TI1-3

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs TI7-2
30/04/23HTI Vs Skanste1-2
23/04/23AJDFS Alberts Vs TI3-3
15/04/23HTI Vs RÄ«gas FS II0-3
07/04/23HTI Vs Valmiera II1-0
13/11/22HTI Vs Smiltene1-2
05/11/22ARÄ«gas FS II Vs TI6-0
29/10/22HTI Vs JDFS Alberts0-5
21/10/22AValmiera II Vs TI0-2
15/10/22HTI Vs Dinamo RÄ«ga5-0

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/23HSMI Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-4
29/04/23AJFK Ventspils Vs SMI0-1
23/04/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SMI4-0
14/04/23HSMI Vs Skanste1-2
08/04/23AJDFS Alberts Vs SMI1-2
13/11/22ATukums II Vs SMI1-2
05/11/22HSMI Vs JDFS Alberts0-1
30/10/22ADinamo RÄ«ga Vs SMI1-1
22/10/22HSMI Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-2
16/10/22AGrobiņa Vs SMI7-2

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL0.84
HomeLLWLL0.88
AwayLWLDL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%25%20%
AVG goals3.903.943.87
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %74%88%60%
Over 3.5 %55%56%53%
Scored1.291.501.07
Conceded2.612.442.80
BTTS48%50%47%
Clean Sheet19%19%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL0.71
HomeLLLLL0.53
AwayDWWLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%13%25%
AVG goals4.063.874.25
Over 1.5 %84%87%81%
Over 2.5 %77%80%75%
Over 3.5 %55%60%50%
Scored0.900.870.94
Conceded3.163.003.31
BTTS48%47%50%
Clean Sheet10%7%12%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RÄ«gaDinamo RÄ«ga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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