Turan Turkistan, riding a 4-game winning streak, hosts Astana II, which is coming off a defeat against the same opponent. The recent-form storyline suggests a high-scoring match, with Turan Turkistan averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home, while Astana II averages 0.56 goals scored and 3.78 conceded away against stronger opponents. The expected total goals stand at 3.4, indicating a high-scoring encounter.
The model predicts a home win with a 53% probability, a draw with 23%, and an away win with 24%. The most likely score is 1-1 with 10% probability. The home side's home scoring and conceding statistics are favourable, while the away side's away performance is concerning.
The model's selection is the home win, with the home team's home scoring and conceding statistics supporting this choice. The model also selects the Over 1.5 with a high probability of 86.6%, which is likely driven by the home side's attacking prowess.
Results analysis
Turan Turkistan's win extends their 4-game winning run, having come from behind to beat Astana II 5-1. The final scoreline was a resounding victory for the home side, confirming the model's call of a home win, which was correct. The model had tipped Turan Turkistan at 53% probability, and this selection largely came in. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with this market closing at 86.6%. The most likely total goals was 3, but the actual score was far more one-sided, with Turan Turkistan scoring four more than the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan Turkistan win✓ Hit
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Astana II win✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.10
0.94
1.88
1.21
2.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
3.40
1.00
3.33
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.47
0.78
1.00
1.60
1.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.80
1.33
2.33
0.93
3.27
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
3.12
1.75
2.25
0.25
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.18
2.68
1.18
2.36
1.18
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
3-0
4.7%
Turan Turkistan goals ↓
Astana II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.5%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.8%
10%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.7%
6.5%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.4%
3.3%
2.3%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan Turkistan goals (down), columns = Astana II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Turan Turkistan is 1.16 points better than Astana II in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Turan Turkistan is 1.16 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Turan Turkistan is 1.11 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.44
0.69
0.64
1.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.70
0.33
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.68
0.56
0.22
0.90
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.00
0.87
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.88
1.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.86
0.73
0.91
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.50
1.19
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.70
0.67
1.83
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.79
0.22
0.78
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.93
0.33
1.47
0.33
2.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.25
0.00
1.50
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
1.82
0.45
1.45
0.36
2.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2