Turan Turkistan arrive at home riding a strong five-game run that includes a recent 4-2 win over Ekibastuz, giving the model a clear edge for a home victory. The prediction shows a 74% chance of Turan winning, 14% for a draw and 12% for Ekibastuz, with the model_pick confirming the home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 4.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 3-1, which carries a 7.8% probability. Turan’s home form shows they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Ekibastuz’s away record is 1.36 scored and 2.55 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (94.8%), Over 2.5 (83.6%), Home win (73.8%) and BTTS Yes (71.5%). All selections are listed with their exact percentages, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Results analysis
The latest clash saw Turan Turkistan extend a winning run, finishing 6-1 over Ekibastuz. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved accurate, matching the final result. The prediction also nailed every suggested pick: Over 1.5 goals hit, Over 2.5 goals hit, the Home win pick hit, and BTTS Yes hit, all with high probabilities of 94.8%, 83.6%, 73.8% and 71.5% respectively. Turan’s recent form, a string of wins, and their strong home scoring average of 3.0 goals per game helped justify the 74% chance of victory, while Ekibastuz’s away struggles and higher conceded average of 2.55 goals per match set the stage for a decisive home triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan Turkistan win✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
3.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.12
1.06
3.25
1.25
3.00
0.89
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.17
3.00
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
6.50
1.00
7.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
29% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
2.30
2.19
1.88
1.36
2.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
7.00
-
-
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (25)
1.80
2.32
2.14
2.14
1.36
2.55
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.8%
Under 1.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
83.6%
Under 2.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.5%
No
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.8%
2-1
7.2%
4-1
6.3%
3-0
5.8%
2-0
5.4%
3-2
5.3%
1-1
4.9%
2-2
4.9%
Turan Turkistan goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
2.9%
4.9%
3.0%
1.3%
0.5%
2
5.4%
7.2%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
3
5.8%
7.8%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
4
4.7%
6.3%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan Turkistan goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Turan Turkistan
2.46
Zhenys
2.07
Akzhayik
1.93
Kyran
1.79
Sport Academy Kairat
1.25
Khan Tengri
1.25
Arys
1.18
Ekibastuz
1.14
Jas Qyran
1.14
Yassy Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.11
Aktobe Jas
0.82
Akademiya Ontustik
0.75
Astana II
0.68
Turan Turkistan is 1.32 points better than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (2.46 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan Turkistan
3.07
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Zhenys
2.21
Akzhayik
2.21
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Kyran
1.96
Jas Qyran
1.79
Ekibastuz
1.68
Yassy Turkistan
1.68
Taraz
1.68
Akademiya Ontustik
1.64
Arys
1.46
Khan Tengri
1.39
Aktobe Jas
1.32
Astana II
1.14
Turan Turkistan is 1.39 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (3.07 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yelimay Semey
0.61
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akzhayik
1.04
Zhenys
1.21
Khan Tengri
1.36
Jas Qyran
1.86
Sport Academy Kairat
1.89
Taraz
2.04
Kyran
2.04
Yassy Turkistan
2.07
Ekibastuz
2.21
Arys
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.68
Aktobe Jas
2.75
Astana II
3.04
Turan Turkistan is 1.21 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.40
1.86
0.57
1.62
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
1.73
0.36
1.80
0.40
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.19
0.88
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.12
1.21
1.00
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.80
1.71
0.86
1.62
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.64
0.82
1.60
1.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.23
1.00
1.00
1.07
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.24
0.93
1.14
1.00
1.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →