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Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy Prediction & Stats

Date: 15/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Turan Turkistan
Turan Turkistan
Vs
34%
25%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Turan Turkistan’s recent 4-2 win over Ekibastuz shows a team that can score but still concedes 1.4 goals on average at home against similar opposition. Shakhter Karagandy, on a five-game winning streak and averaging 1.82 goals scored while conceding 1.45 at away venues, appears the stronger side. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 41% chance, a 34% chance of a home win and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.2% probability. The match is projected to be high-scoring, with the total likely around three goals. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Under 6.5 (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.5%), Under 5.5 (88.8%), Over 1.5 (84.7%), Away +2 handicap (83.2%) and Away over 0.5 goals (82.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan Turkistan win
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy win
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-534L14L40W21W10W51W00D04L42W30WA·OKZ26/10H·YEL08/04A·ARY16/07H·TOB24/07A·KHA30/07H·AST07/08A·TAR14/08H·SPO21/08A·EKI27/08A·KAS04/09← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.131.072.131.402.13
vs Stronger (7)0.714.291.004.250.334.33
vs Similar (22)1.361.501.001.401.671.58
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W23L23L41W20W10W61W40W30W40WH·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04H·ARY24/07A·TOB31/07H·KAS06/08A·AKT13/08H·AST21/08A·YEL27/08H·KHA03/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.501.172.940.942.001.43
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (24)2.541.173.141.001.701.40
vs Weaker (4)3.251.003.001.003.331.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
1-0
4.9%
1-3
4.9%
Turan Turkistan goals ↓
Shakhter Karagandy goals →
01234
04.8%5.5%5.6%3.2%1.4%
14.9%11%8.7%4.9%2.1%
24.6%7.9%6.8%3.8%1.6%
32.4%4.1%3.5%2.0%0.8%
40.9%1.6%1.4%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan Turkistan goals (down), columns = Shakhter Karagandy goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.38
Ekibastuz
1.29
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Tobol 2
0.38
Turan Turkistan is 0.62 points worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 3.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Jaiyq
1.12
Astana II
1.12
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Turan Turkistan is 1.05 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals scored per game (2.38 vs 3.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
0.88
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.88
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Turan Turkistan is 0.71 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Turan Turkistan or Draw
59.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
25%
41%
covers Turan Turkistan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan or Shakhter Karagandy
74.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
25%
41%
covers Turan Turkistan + Shakhter Karagandy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy
65.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
25%
41%
covers Draw + Shakhter Karagandy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Turan Turkistan, so a minus line means Turan Turkistan give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Karagandy receive them. At -1, Turan Turkistan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Turan Turkistan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan -2
6.7%
Draw -2
10.4%
Shakhter Karagandy +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan -1
17.0%
Draw -1
17.3%
Shakhter Karagandy +1
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan +1
59.4%
Draw +1
19.0%
Shakhter Karagandy -1
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan +2
78.4%
Draw +2
12.5%
Shakhter Karagandy -2
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L02L20W00D00D20W00D02L10W20WA·OKZ26/10H·YEL08/04A·ARY16/07H·TOB24/07A·KHA30/07H·AST07/08A·TAR14/08H·SPO21/08A·EKI27/08A·KAS04/09← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.470.730.731.07
vs Stronger (7)0.292.000.501.750.002.33
vs Similar (22)0.730.590.500.400.920.75
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W11D10W00D20W20W20W20WH·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04H·ARY24/07A·TOB31/07H·KAS06/08A·AKT13/08H·AST21/08A·YEL27/08H·KHA03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.601.000.500.860.71
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.000.671.070.570.900.80
vs Weaker (4)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L20W21W10W31W00D02L32W10WA·OKZ26/10H·YEL08/04A·ARY16/07H·TOB24/07A·KHA30/07H·AST07/08A·TAR14/08H·SPO21/08A·EKI27/08A·KAS04/09← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.230.601.400.671.07
vs Stronger (7)0.432.290.502.500.332.00
vs Similar (22)0.640.910.501.000.750.83
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W12L03L30W10W10W41W20W10W20WH·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04H·ARY24/07A·TOB31/07H·KAS06/08A·AKT13/08H·AST21/08A·YEL27/08H·KHA03/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.571.940.441.140.71
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.540.502.070.430.800.60
vs Weaker (4)2.251.002.001.002.331.00
Clean sheet %63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Under 6.595.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals90.6%-------
Under 5.588.7%-------
Over 1.584.7%-------
Away +2 handicap83.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals81.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals78.9%-------
Home +2 handicap78.4%-------
Under 4.576.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals75.6%-------
Home or Away74.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
TT wins
0
Draws
0
SK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy · H/A from TT
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24HTT Vs Shakhter Karagandy2-1
30/03/24AShakhter Karagandy Vs TT0-2

Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26AKaspij Aktau 2 Vs TT0-3
27/08/26AEkibastuz Vs TT2-4
21/08/26HTT Vs Sport Academy Kairat0-4
14/08/26ATaraz Vs TT0-0
07/08/26HTT Vs Astana II5-1
30/07/26AKhan Tengri Vs TT0-1
24/07/26HTT Vs Tobol 22-1
16/07/26AArys Vs TT0-4
08/04/26HTT Vs Yelimay Semey1-4
26/10/25AOkzhetpes Vs TT4-3

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HSK Vs Khan Tengri4-0
27/08/26AYelimay Semey 2 Vs SK0-3
21/08/26HSK Vs Astana II4-0
13/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs SK1-6
06/08/26HSK Vs Kaspij Aktau 21-0
31/07/26ATobol 2 Vs SK0-2
24/07/26HSK Vs Arys4-1
09/04/26HSK Vs Okzhetpes2-3
17/10/25AKaspiy Vs SK3-2
03/10/25HSK Vs Taraz2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan Turkistan
Turan Turkistan
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW0.98
HomeLLWWL1.24
AwayWWDWW0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals3.062.763.36
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored1.101.121.08
Conceded1.961.642.28
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.50
HomeLWWWW1.76
AwayWLWWW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals3.363.483.24
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %70%76%64%
Over 3.5 %46%56%36%
Scored1.882.241.52
Conceded1.481.241.72
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet28%40%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan819
75%
2.4
198+11
3.4
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.0
-
3Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
4Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6JaiyqJaiyq811
38%
1.4
97+2
2.0
62%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
7Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2810
38%
1.2
1214-2
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
8EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
9Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 286
25%
0.8
615-9
2.6
62%
50%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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