Turan Turkistan is expected to take the lead in this Kazakhstan: 1. Division match against Sport Academy Kairat, as they are on a 4-game winning run and have been scoring freely. However, their recent form note suggests they may be due for a drop in performance, which could be exploited by Sport Academy Kairat, who have shown resilience in their away form.
The model predicts a 53% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%.
Turan Turkistan have scored an average of 0.86 goals at home and conceded 1.57 goals against similar opponents. In contrast, Sport Academy Kairat have scored 0 goals away and conceded 1 goal against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 53% chance. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 selection, with an 81.2% chance. Turan Turkistan have a 53% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset came as Turan Turkistan, the pre-match favourite with a 54 % chance of victory, fell to a 0-4 defeat, leaving the model’s call wrong. The match finished with an away win, a result the model had not predicted. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was therefore incorrect. The model’s selection Under 7.5, with a 98.8 % probability, hit, as did Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 % and Under 6.5 at 96.6 %. Under 5.5, with 91.6 %, also hit. The other picks - Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.1 %) and Home +2 handicap (91.3 %) - missed, while Home under 2.5 HT goals (91.2 %) hit. The game’s final score of 0-4 confirmed the away side’s dominance, extending their recent form streak of wins.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan Turkistan win✗ Miss
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat win✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.00
1.19
1.81
1.00
2.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
3.56
1.00
3.60
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.35
1.20
1.00
1.30
1.70
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.40
2.81
1.31
1.79
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.09
1.50
2.50
1.25
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (8)
3.00
1.12
3.75
1.50
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
Turan Turkistan goals ↓
Sport Academy Kairat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.6%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.2%
12%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan Turkistan goals (down), columns = Sport Academy Kairat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Turan Turkistan is 0.16 points better than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Turan Turkistan is 0.04 goals better than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 2.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Turan Turkistan is 0.77 goals worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Turan Turkistan or Draw✗ Miss
78.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
22%
covers Turan Turkistan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan or Sport Academy Kairat✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
22%
covers Turan Turkistan + Sport Academy Kairat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sport Academy Kairat✓ Hit
46.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
22%
covers Draw + Sport Academy Kairat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Turan Turkistan, so a minus line means Turan Turkistan give that many goals of a start and Sport Academy Kairat receive them. At -1, Turan Turkistan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Turan Turkistan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Turan Turkistan)Actual: Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan -2
14.7%
Draw -2
16.7%
Sport Academy Kairat +2
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Turan Turkistan)Actual: Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan -1
31.4%
Draw -1
22.2%
Sport Academy Kairat +1
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Turan Turkistan)Actual: Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan +1
78.3%
Draw +1
13.0%
Sport Academy Kairat -1
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Turan Turkistan)Actual: Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan +2
91.3%
Draw +2
6.1%
Sport Academy Kairat -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.56
0.62
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.78
0.40
1.60
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.55
0.70
0.20
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.12
0.56
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.68
1.08
0.58
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.38
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.6%
Under 1.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.1%
Under 2.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.62
1.19
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.78
0.60
2.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.80
1.69
0.75
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.82
1.42
0.67
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2