Turan Turkistan are tipped to win, a result the model sees as the most likely, with a 50 % chance of triumph, a 26 % chance of a draw and a 25 % chance of Yelimay Semey 2 taking the victory. The match is expected to see three goals on average, but the most probable total is two, with a 24 % chance of that exact figure. The single score the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12 % probability, and that is the only scoreline to be mentioned. Turan’s home form shows they average 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against similar opposition, while Yelimay’s away record is 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (96.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7 %), Under 5.5 (92.0 %), Home +2 handicap (89.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (89.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.1 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.0 %). Turan’s recent form, after a defeat, and Yelimay’s recent losses set the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan Turkistan win
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 win
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.17
1.07
2.13
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
3.88
1.00
4.25
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.57
1.00
1.40
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.86
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
2.20
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Turan Turkistan goals ↓
Yelimay Semey 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.8%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.1%
12%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.7%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.0%
5.9%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan Turkistan goals (down), columns = Yelimay Semey 2 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Turan Turkistan is 1.43 points better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Turan Turkistan is 1.43 goals better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Turan Turkistan is 0.71 goals better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Turan Turkistan or Draw
76.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
23%
covers Turan Turkistan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan or Yelimay Semey 2
74.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
23%
covers Turan Turkistan + Yelimay Semey 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yelimay Semey 2
48.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
23%
covers Draw + Yelimay Semey 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5
Over
83.7%
Under
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Turan Turkistan, so a minus line means Turan Turkistan give that many goals of a start and Yelimay Semey 2 receive them. At -1, Turan Turkistan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Turan Turkistan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan -2
13.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
Yelimay Semey 2 +2
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan -1
29.5%
Draw -1
22.0%
Yelimay Semey 2 +1
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan +1
76.6%
Draw +1
13.8%
Yelimay Semey 2 -1
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Turan Turkistan)
Turan Turkistan +2
90.4%
Draw +2
6.6%
Yelimay Semey 2 -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.88
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.95
0.50
1.00
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.14
0.25
1.25
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Tobol 2