PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Turan vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 31/03/2023
Time: 11:30
Final 2-3
Turan
Turan
Vs
47%
30%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D23L12L10W20W20W02L04L11D11DA·QAB24/12H·QAR25/01A·SUM30/01A·ŞAM06/02H·KAP11/02A·SAB19/02H·ZIR24/02A·NEF05/03H·QAB11/03A·SƏB16/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.781.300.921.540.641.07
vs Stronger (6)0.832.000.672.001.002.00
vs Similar (15)0.531.330.571.710.501.00
vs Weaker (6)1.330.502.000.670.670.33
Clean sheet %41% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L13L21W02L10W12L12L10W04L06LH·SAB23/12A·ZIR25/01H·TUR30/01A·NEF05/02H·ŞAM12/02A·QAB18/02H·KAP25/02A·SƏB04/03A·SAB10/03H·QAR15/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.850.771.770.501.93
vs Stronger (12)0.333.000.403.600.292.57
vs Similar (15)0.870.931.000.620.711.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %26% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.5%
Turan goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
01234
011%7.7%4.2%1.3%0.3%
112%14%5.9%1.8%0.4%
29.6%8.9%4.1%1.3%0.3%
34.5%4.2%1.9%0.6%0.1%
41.6%1.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Turan is 0.22 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Turan is 0.28 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Turan is 0.58 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L11D00D10W10W02L02L11D11DA·QAB24/12H·QAR25/01A·SUM30/01A·ŞAM06/02H·KAP11/02A·SAB19/02H·ZIR24/02A·NEF05/03H·QAB11/03A·SƏB16/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.740.620.920.210.57
vs Stronger (6)0.331.330.331.330.331.33
vs Similar (15)0.270.670.431.000.120.38
vs Weaker (6)0.830.331.330.330.330.33
Clean sheet %56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W11D00D10W01L02L00D01L04LH·SAB23/12A·ZIR25/01H·TUR30/01A·NEF05/02H·ŞAM12/02A·QAB18/02H·KAP25/02A·SƏB04/03A·SAB10/03H·QAR15/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.260.780.381.000.140.57
vs Stronger (12)0.171.000.201.800.140.43
vs Similar (15)0.330.600.500.500.140.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %52% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L10W10W10W00D02L00D00DA·QAB24/12H·QAR25/01A·SUM30/01A·ŞAM06/02H·KAP11/02A·SAB19/02H·ZIR24/02A·NEF05/03H·QAB11/03A·SƏB16/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.560.310.620.430.50
vs Stronger (6)0.500.670.330.670.670.67
vs Similar (15)0.270.670.140.710.380.62
vs Weaker (6)0.500.170.670.330.330.00
Clean sheet %56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L10W02L00D11D10W10W03L02LH·SAB23/12A·ZIR25/01H·TUR30/01A·NEF05/02H·ŞAM12/02A·QAB18/02H·KAP25/02A·SƏB04/03A·SAB10/03H·QAR15/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.070.380.770.361.36
vs Stronger (12)0.172.000.201.800.142.14
vs Similar (15)0.530.330.500.120.570.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %44% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar squad value (both €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Turan's defence is €1m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€5m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
TUR wins
1
Draws
1
SUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan vs Sumqayıt · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
30/01/23ASumqayıt Vs TUR2-1
28/10/22HTUR Vs Sumqayıt1-0
26/08/22ASumqayıt Vs TUR0-0

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/23ASəbail Vs TUR1-1
11/03/23HTUR Vs Qabala1-1
05/03/23ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR4-0
24/02/23HTUR Vs Zira0-2
19/02/23ASabah FA Vs TUR0-2
11/02/23HTUR Vs Kapaz2-0
06/02/23AŞamaxı FK Vs TUR0-1
30/01/23ASumqayıt Vs TUR2-1
25/01/23HTUR Vs Qarabag2-3
24/12/22AQabala Vs TUR0-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/23HSUM Vs Qarabag0-6
10/03/23ASabah FA Vs SUM4-0
04/03/23ASəbail Vs SUM0-1
25/02/23HSUM Vs Kapaz1-2
18/02/23AQabala Vs SUM2-1
12/02/23HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
05/02/23ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM2-0
30/01/23HSUM Vs Turan2-1
25/01/23AZira Vs SUM3-1
23/12/22HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-6

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.04
HomeLLWLD0.85
AwayLWWLD1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%23%29%
AVG goals2.072.461.71
Over 1.5 %63%77%50%
Over 2.5 %33%31%36%
Over 3.5 %22%31%14%
Scored0.780.920.64
Conceded1.301.541.07
BTTS33%38%29%
Clean Sheet41%23%57%
Corners---
Cards---
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.78
HomeLWWLL1.08
AwayLLLWL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%23%14%
AVG goals2.482.542.43
Over 1.5 %67%77%57%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored0.630.770.50
Conceded1.851.771.93
BTTS33%38%29%
Clean Sheet26%31%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches