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Turku PS vs Ilves Result & Analysis

Date: 20/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-3
Turku PS
Turku PS
Vs
56%
23%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilves
Ilves
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Turku PS host Ilves in a Finland: Veikkausliiga match on July 20, 2026. Recent form suggests Turku PS are coming off a win, having beaten Mariehamn 3-0, while Ilves are after two straight defeats, losing 0-1 to HNK Rijeka. Despite this, the model predicts a home win for Turku PS, with a 56% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of an Ilves win. The expected total goals is 3.3, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely total number of goals is 3, and the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.4%. Turku PS have scored an average of 2.45 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.91. Ilves have scored 3.5 goals away against stronger opponents, while conceding 3. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 84.8% chance of hitting. The home win percentage is 56%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 21%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a 84.8% chance of hitting.

Results analysis

The home team's three-goal win over Turku PS extends their recent form, coming off a win. However, the upset of the day belonged to Ilves, as they secured an away win with a 1-3 final score. The pre-match favourite, the home win, did not come through, with the model's selection being wrong. The model had picked the home win with a 56% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of the home win was incorrect, as the actual result was an away win.

The model's suggested picks also included Over 1.5, which hit with an 84.8% probability.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Turku PS win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilves win✓ Hit
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Turku PSTurku PS

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L12L10W01L12L00D32W13L30WH·HJK08/05A·AC 16/05A·INT23/05H·VPS30/05A·ILV13/06H·KUP17/06A·LAH23/06H·FF 27/06A·SJK04/07H·AC 11/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.301.941.121.361.50
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (7)0.861.001.000.250.672.00
vs Weaker (22)1.951.362.361.361.551.36
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlvesIlves

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W22D13L20W05L10W50W34L22D12LH·AC 08/05A·HJK16/05H·INT20/05H·GNI23/05A·LAH30/05H·TUR13/06H·FF 17/06A·KUP23/06H·SJK27/06A·FF 04/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.831.931.331.802.33
vs Stronger (4)2.252.501.002.003.503.00
vs Similar (19)1.741.682.001.221.502.10
vs Weaker (7)2.001.862.251.251.672.67
Clean sheet %20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.5%
Turku PS goals ↓
Ilves goals →
01234
04.7%3.6%2.8%1.1%0.3%
16.9%10%5.7%2.3%0.7%
28.0%9.8%5.9%2.4%0.7%
35.5%6.7%4.1%1.6%0.5%
42.8%3.5%2.1%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turku PS goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KuPS
2.11
Inter Turku
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.63
AC Oulu
1.58
Gnistan
1.53
VPS
1.50
Turku PS
1.45
Lahti
1.37
Ilves
1.32
SJK
0.90
FF Jaro
0.79
Mariehamn
0.40
Turku PS is 0.13 points better than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.32).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.79
Ilves
1.63
HJK Helsinki
1.53
Gnistan
1.53
VPS
1.40
Turku PS
1.35
Inter Turku
1.32
SJK
1.20
AC Oulu
1.16
Lahti
1.16
FF Jaro
0.95
Mariehamn
0.55
Turku PS is 0.28 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.63).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.74
Lahti
0.84
KuPS
0.89
VPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.10
AC Oulu
1.16
HJK Helsinki
1.21
Gnistan
1.26
SJK
1.55
Ilves
1.63
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn
2.05
Turku PS is 0.53 goals better than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.63).

⏱ïļ Possession

Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Turku PS is 0.3 percentage points better than Ilves in terms of average possession (50% vs 49%).

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Turku PSTurku PS

For 5.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

15033471435662841051061117118121015A·SJKH·FF A·LAHA·ILVA·FF H·GNIH·SJKA·MARA·KOO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

90311314236242217311469648A·SJKH·FF A·LAHA·ILVA·FF H·GNIH·SJKA·MARA·KOO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 13.2 · Total 22.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

430197532121081817268141213152210125222643222537A·SJKH·FF A·LAHA·ILVA·FF H·GNIH·SJKA·MARA·KOO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

IlvesIlves

For 4.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

170224463345443454943107489797913717A·FF A·KUPH·FF H·TURH·GNIA·HJKA·MARA·INTH·KUPH·SJK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70111113421331221520224644417A·FF A·KUPH·FF H·TURH·GNIA·HJKA·MARA·INTH·KUPH·SJK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 10.1 · Total 18.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

3001214859101211191111911810658143221422302220181122A·FF A·KUPH·FF H·TURH·GNIA·HJKA·MARA·INTH·KUPH·SJK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Turku PSTurku PS

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.010.38.30.80.61.122.425.720.8
vs Stronger (1)---0.00.0----
vs Similar (10)8.312.06.51.31.01.818.022.016.0
vs Weaker (39)9.39.59.20.70.51.024.727.523.2
% over line56%67%50%12%7%17%67%67%67%
% under line44%33%50%88%93%83%33%33%33%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlvesIlves

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.510.810.31.61.61.618.918.819.0
vs Stronger (10)9.610.09.31.31.01.617.613.020.7
vs Similar (27)10.29.310.91.91.52.118.318.318.2
vs Weaker (13)13.716.09.01.42.30.624.026.020.0
% over line55%40%67%24%21%27%45%50%42%
% under line45%60%33%76%79%73%55%50%58%
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
SJK
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
10.0
KuPS
10.0
Ilves
9.9
VPS
9.9
Lahti
9.7
AC Oulu
9.7
Turku PS
9.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Turku PS
4.7
Lahti
4.7
Gnistan
4.0
Mariehamn
3.9
SJK
3.9
AC Oulu
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.4
FF Jaro
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.1

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.5
Lahti
23.3
Inter Turku
23.1
AC Oulu
22.8
Gnistan
22.5
Turku PS
22.4
VPS
22.4
Mariehamn
22.3
KuPS
21.7
HJK Helsinki
20.8
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.6%
Under 9.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
35.6%
Under 21.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ĩ 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Turku PS vs Ilves · H/A from TP
DateH/AGameScore
13/06/26AIlves Vs TP1-0

Turku PSTurku PS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26HTP Vs AC Oulu3-0
04/07/26ASJK Vs TP3-1
27/06/26HTP Vs FF Jaro3-2
23/06/26ALahti Vs TP0-0
17/06/26HTP Vs KuPS1-2
13/06/26AIlves Vs TP1-0
30/05/26HTP Vs VPS1-0
23/05/26AInter Turku Vs TP2-1
16/05/26AAC Oulu Vs TP1-0
08/05/26HTP Vs HJK Helsinki1-0

IlvesIlves

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26AFF Jaro Vs ILV2-1
27/06/26HILV Vs SJK2-2
23/06/26AKuPS Vs ILV4-3
17/06/26HILV Vs FF Jaro5-0
13/06/26HILV Vs Turku PS1-0
30/05/26ALahti Vs ILV5-0
23/05/26HILV Vs Gnistan2-0
20/05/26HILV Vs Inter Turku1-3
16/05/26AHJK Helsinki Vs ILV2-2
08/05/26HILV Vs AC Oulu1-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Turku PS
Turku PS
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.72
HomeWWLWW2.00
AwayLLLDL1.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%63%35%
AVG goals3.363.413.30
Over 1.5 %82%85%78%
Over 2.5 %68%74%61%
Over 3.5 %44%41%48%
Scored1.962.151.74
Conceded1.401.261.57
BTTS66%63%70%
Clean Sheet24%30%17%
Corners9.0010.338.33
Cards4.675.334.33
Ilves
Ilves
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.54
HomeLWWWD2.00
AwayDDLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%58%31%
AVG goals3.603.333.85
Over 1.5 %86%79%92%
Over 2.5 %74%71%77%
Over 3.5 %56%50%62%
Scored1.882.001.77
Conceded1.721.332.08
BTTS62%67%58%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners10.5510.8010.33
Cards3.383.553.23

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KuPSKuPS1940
58%
2.1
3417+17
2.7
84%
42%
26%
8.1
33%
1.9
11%
19.9
44%
0
0001.80.9
57%
2Inter TurkuInter Turku1935
47%
1.8
2514+11
2.1
68%
32%
16%
10.7
67%
2.3
14%
19.7
57%
5
2121.30.7
58%
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki1931
47%
1.6
2923+6
2.7
68%
53%
26%
7.0
14%
3.0
43%
18.4
43%
6
2131.51.2
55%
4VPSVPS2030
40%
1.5
2821+7
2.5
65%
45%
30%
7.1
30%
3.4
50%
21.8
70%
0
0001.41.1
48%
5AC OuluAC Oulu1930
47%
1.6
2222+0
2.3
58%
37%
16%
9.5
38%
3.8
62%
22.6
50%
4
1111.21.2
48%
6GnistanGnistan1929
42%
1.5
2924+5
2.8
79%
42%
26%
10.1
57%
3.6
50%
24.2
71%
3
1111.51.3
44%
7Turku PSTurku PS2029
40%
1.4
2722+5
2.5
70%
50%
25%
7.7
40%
3.9
60%
20.3
60%
0
0001.41.1
50%
8LahtiLahti1926
37%
1.4
2216+6
2.0
63%
26%
11%
8.3
50%
3.8
60%
22.6
80%
2
1011.20.8
56%
9IlvesIlves1925
37%
1.3
3131+0
3.3
79%
63%
53%
8.1
11%
3.0
56%
18.0
44%
4
1121.61.6
49%
10SJKSJK2018
20%
0.9
2431-7
2.8
85%
55%
30%
9.0
57%
3.9
57%
20.4
57%
4
1121.21.6
50%
11FF JaroFF Jaro1915
16%
0.8
1838-20
2.9
84%
58%
32%
8.4
30%
3.1
40%
19.2
50%
2
1110.92.0
47%
12MariehamnMariehamn208
5%
0.4
1141-30
2.6
85%
45%
20%
10.5
70%
3.0
64%
21.3
64%
2
1110.62.0
45%
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →

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