Turku PS are set to host KuPS in a tight, low-scoring encounter, with defensive figures hinting at a cautious game. The model favours a home win, assigning 39% to Turku PS, 32% to a draw and 29% to KuPS. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.7% probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Turku PS, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, average 1.91 goals scored and 0.82 conceded; KuPS, on the road, average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 83.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.4% and Under 5.5 cards at 76.0%. The last five games for Turku PS show an unbeaten run, while KuPS are coming off a defeat.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Turku PS, fell short of the model’s home-win call, which carried a 39% probability. The final score of 1-2 gave KuPS the away win, proving the model’s pick was wrong. Turku’s unbeaten run in their last five matches, highlighted by a 1-1 draw with Gnistan, did not translate into victory. KuPS, after a recent defeat to Inter Turku, capitalised on their 1-0 win to secure the win. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit with an 83.7% probability, confirming the low-scoring nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turku PS win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KuPS win✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turku PS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.20
2.07
1.00
1.40
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.10
1.91
0.82
1.00
1.44
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
1.40
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.47
0.87
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.50
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.64
1.43
0.57
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.6%
Under 1.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.3%
Under 2.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.5%
1-0
12.7%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
7.7%
1-2 ✓
6.4%
0-2
5.5%
Turku PS goals ↓
KuPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.1%
7.7%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.1%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turku PS goals (down), columns = KuPS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Turku PS is 0.55 points worse than KuPS in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Turku PS is 0.45 goals worse than KuPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Turku PS and KuPS are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Turku PS is 7.7 percentage points worse than KuPS in terms of average possession (50% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Turku PS
For 6.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 17.2 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KuPS
For 4.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.1 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Turku PS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.0
10.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
29.2
32.5
27.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
10.6
10.0
11.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
30.0
32.5
28.3
vs Weaker (20)
10.0
-
10.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
67%
50%
75%
12%
9%
15%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
33%
50%
25%
88%
91%
85%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (KuPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.4
10.4
1.7
1.4
2.0
19.7
18.9
20.2
vs Stronger (6)
8.8
8.7
9.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
19.8
17.7
22.0
vs Similar (19)
10.9
9.6
12.5
1.5
2.1
0.8
17.8
18.8
16.5
vs Weaker (25)
9.9
9.7
10.0
1.6
0.5
2.5
21.0
20.3
21.2
% over line
44%
36%
50%
22%
21%
23%
30%
27%
31%
% under line
56%
64%
50%
78%
79%
77%
70%
73%
69%
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.8
Inter Turku
10.5
Turku PS
10.5
SJK
10.4
Mariehamn
10.4
FF Jaro
10.3
Ilves
10.3
VPS
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.0
KuPS
10.0
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.2
Lahti
4.7
Mariehamn
4.2
Gnistan
4.1
Ilves
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Inter Turku
3.9
VPS
3.8
FF Jaro
3.6
KuPS
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
29.2
SJK
24.2
Ilves
23.9
Inter Turku
23.6
Lahti
23.6
Mariehamn
23.3
VPS
22.9
Gnistan
22.6
KuPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
HJK Helsinki
21.0
FF Jaro
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.1%
Under 9.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.7%
Under 3.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.0%
Under 21.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turku PS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
1.07
0.20
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.35
0.91
0.18
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.37
0.60
0.40
0.27
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.08
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turku PS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turku PS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.75
1.00
0.64
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.90
1.00
1.25
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.21
0.71
0.29
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turku PS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Turku PS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Albijon Muzaci50%
T. Tsirigotis33%
S. Anini33%
Pau Juvanteny14%
Luke Ivanovic0%
Atte Sihvonen0%
M. Hrádecký0%
L. Ikonen0%
M. Kauppila0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
N. Talo0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Tobias Karkulowski0%
Elmer Vauhkonen0%
E. Turkki0%
Oscar Haggstrom0%
Eetu Turkki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Anini67%
Eetu Turkki67%
Oscar Haggstrom50%
Luke Ivanovic25%
Atte Sihvonen25%
L. Ikonen25%
Tobias Karkulowski17%
Pau Juvanteny14%
M. Hrádecký0%
T. Tsirigotis0%
M. Kauppila0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
N. Talo0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Elmer Vauhkonen0%
E. Turkki0%
Albijon Muzaci0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eetu Turkki67%
N. Talo33%
E. Turkki33%
Luke Ivanovic25%
Tobias Karkulowski17%
Atte Sihvonen0%
M. Hrádecký0%
L. Ikonen0%
T. Tsirigotis0%
M. Kauppila0%
S. Anini0%
Pau Juvanteny0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Elmer Vauhkonen0%
Oscar Haggstrom0%
Albijon Muzaci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
E. Turkki33%
Luke Ivanovic25%
Elmer Vauhkonen25%
Albijon Muzaci25%
Atte Sihvonen0%
M. Hrádecký0%
L. Ikonen0%
T. Tsirigotis0%
M. Kauppila0%
S. Anini0%
Pau Juvanteny0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
N. Talo0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Tobias Karkulowski0%
Oscar Haggstrom0%
Eetu Turkki0%
KuPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaime Moreno83%
Bob Nii Armah43%
P. Pennanen29%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba25%
Gustav Engvall22%
Otto Ruoppi12%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Gasc33%
Arttu Lötjönen25%
A. Puukko25%
Jaime Moreno17%
S. Heiskanen17%
Kasim Adams14%
Clinton Antwi11%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Gustav Engvall0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Puukko25%
P. Pennanen14%
S. Savolainen14%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Otto Ruoppi12%
Gustav Engvall11%
Clinton Antwi11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Jaime Moreno0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
V. Gasc0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jaime Moreno67%
Bob Nii Armah57%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Gustav Engvall11%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Turku PS's squad is €5m less valuable than KuPS's (€2m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Turku PS's attack is €1m less valuable than KuPS's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Turku PS's midfield is €2m less valuable than KuPS's (€0m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Turku PS's defence is €2m less valuable than KuPS's (€1m vs €3m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn