Turku PS is the clear favourite to take the win, with a 68% probability of success. This is largely due to their home form, where they have averaged 2.27 goals scored and just 1 conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, Mariehamn have struggled on the road, scoring only 0.93 goals and conceding 2.43 against stronger teams.
The most likely match result is a home win, which aligns with the model's pick. The expected total goals stands at 3.0, suggesting a relatively high-scoring encounter. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 11.7%.
The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, which has an 81.6% chance of occurring. This selection also offers a 3% edge. The home side's home win percentage stands at 68%, while the draw percentage is 20% and the away win percentage is 12%.
Results analysis
Turku PS's win extends their recent form, having come off a draw. The final score was 3-0, resulting in a home win for Turku PS. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The model's call was spot on as the favourite. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 81.6%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals was correct, as the actual total was indeed 3 goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turku PS win✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.51
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Dafabet
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.20
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.54
Dafabet
4.50
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Mariehamn win✗ Miss
11.8%
Avg Implied 16.9% · @ 5.47
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.71
Marathonbet
5.70
Pinnacle
5.65
Dafabet
5.60
William Hil
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turku PS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
2.00
0.93
1.12
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.18
1.60
0.90
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (13)
2.00
1.23
3.00
1.00
1.56
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.93
1.12
1.56
1.29
2.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
2.21
1.12
1.50
0.50
3.17
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.69
1.12
1.62
1.88
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
@ 1.19+3.5%
Under 1.5
18.4%
@ 4.24-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.64+1.3%
Under 2.5
41.4%
@ 2.19-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Bet365
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.2%
@ 2.57+0.0%
Under 3.5
63.8%
@ 1.45-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
@ 1.71-3.0%
No
48.9%
@ 2.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%@ 7.26+5.6%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.26+3.6%
1-0
9.7%@ 7.25+3.6%
1-1
9.7%@ 7.55+3.8%
3-0 ✓
8.6%@ 10.46+4.4%
3-1
7.1%@ 10.51+3.0%
0-0
5.7%@ 12.45+2.1%
4-0
4.8%@ 18.76+2.4%
Turku PS goals ↓
Mariehamn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
3.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
9.7%
9.7%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.6%
7.1%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.8%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turku PS goals (down), columns = Mariehamn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.05
Inter Turku
1.86
Gnistan
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.62
AC Oulu
1.57
VPS
1.57
Turku PS
1.43
Lahti
1.38
Ilves
1.19
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.71
Mariehamn
0.52
Turku PS is 0.90 points better than Mariehamn in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.81
Gnistan
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.62
Ilves
1.57
VPS
1.38
Inter Turku
1.33
Turku PS
1.29
SJK
1.19
Lahti
1.19
AC Oulu
1.19
FF Jaro
0.86
Mariehamn
0.71
Turku PS is 0.57 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.76
Lahti
0.90
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.19
HJK Helsinki
1.24
Gnistan
1.33
SJK
1.57
Ilves
1.67
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn
2.05
Turku PS is 1.00 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Turku PS is 5.1 percentage points better than Mariehamn in terms of average possession (50% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Turku PS
For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Turku PS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
10.3
7.6
0.9
0.7
1.0
21.6
25.7
19.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.3
10.3
6.8
1.4
1.3
1.6
21.3
25.7
18.0
vs Weaker (29)
8.7
-
8.7
0.4
0.0
0.8
22.3
-
22.3
% over line
50%
67%
43%
12%
8%
15%
60%
67%
57%
% under line
50%
33%
57%
88%
92%
85%
40%
33%
43%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.2
9.5
1.4
1.8
0.9
20.1
20.6
19.2
vs Stronger (26)
9.7
10.0
9.3
0.8
0.9
0.5
19.4
20.0
18.3
vs Similar (24)
11.0
11.8
9.6
2.0
3.2
1.1
20.5
20.9
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
71%
77%
62%
22%
32%
12%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
29%
23%
38%
78%
68%
88%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Turku PS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
SJK
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
Ilves
9.9
KuPS
9.9
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
SJK
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.5
Lahti
23.1
Inter Turku
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
Mariehamn
22.0
KuPS
21.7
Turku PS
21.6
HJK Helsinki
20.7
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.1%
@ 1.60-13.7%
Under 9.5
55.9%
@ 2.19+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.8%
Under 21.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turku PS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.70
0.60
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.44
0.69
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.86
0.62
0.75
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.25
0.62
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turku PS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turku PS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.14
0.43
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.47
0.90
0.30
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.85
1.75
0.75
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.69
0.88
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.36
0.50
0.75
0.33
2.17
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.00
0.88
1.00
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turku PS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turku PS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
1.46
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
+15.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
VPS
AC Oulu
Lahti
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro