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Tuzla City vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-5
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
Vs
34%
29%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tuzla City win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✓ Hit
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tuzla CityTuzla City

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L15L11D31W01L23L12L02L26L04LA·SLO16/03H·FK 29/03A·POS06/04H·SIR12/04A·GOŠ19/04A·ZVI24/04H·IGM29/04A·ZEL03/05H·BOR13/05A·ZRI20/05
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.071.801.800.872.33
vs Stronger (12)1.253.251.673.170.833.33
vs Similar (18)1.391.281.890.890.891.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W11D01L31W10W03L20W10W33DH·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04A·ZRI13/04H·ZVI19/04H·SLO23/04A·FK 28/04H·POS03/05A·SIR11/05H·GOŠ20/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.901.730.730.931.07
vs Stronger (9)0.561.221.250.250.002.00
vs Similar (17)1.470.711.670.671.250.75
vs Weaker (4)2.501.003.002.002.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tuzla City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
6.1%
Tuzla City goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
08.8%8.7%6.5%2.9%0.9%
18.3%14%8.3%3.6%1.2%
26.1%8.0%5.3%2.3%0.8%
32.6%3.4%2.2%1.0%0.3%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tuzla City goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Tuzla City is 0.97 points worse than Velež in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Tuzla City is 0.15 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Tuzla City is 1.24 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (2.09 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tuzla CityTuzla City

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L02L10W11D00D11D10W01L14L02LA·SLO16/03H·FK 29/03A·POS06/04H·SIR12/04A·GOŠ19/04A·ZVI24/04H·IGM29/04A·ZEL03/05H·BOR13/05A·ZRI20/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.030.800.870.331.20
vs Stronger (12)0.421.750.671.830.171.67
vs Similar (18)0.670.560.890.220.440.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L01L10W10W01L10W10W11DH·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04A·ZRI13/04H·ZVI19/04H·SLO23/04A·FK 28/04H·POS03/05A·SIR11/05H·GOŠ20/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.670.400.270.67
vs Stronger (9)0.110.670.250.250.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.590.530.780.440.380.62
vs Weaker (4)0.750.251.000.500.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tuzla City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tuzla City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tuzla City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tuzla City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tuzla CityTuzla City

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D13L01L20W01L12L02L01L12L02LA·SLO16/03H·FK 29/03A·POS06/04H·SIR12/04A·GOŠ19/04A·ZVI24/04H·IGM29/04A·ZEL03/05H·BOR13/05A·ZRI20/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.031.000.930.531.13
vs Stronger (12)0.831.501.001.330.671.67
vs Similar (18)0.720.721.000.670.440.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W00D21W00D02L10W00D22DH·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04A·ZRI13/04H·ZVI19/04H·SLO23/04A·FK 28/04H·POS03/05A·SIR11/05H·GOŠ20/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.371.070.330.670.40
vs Stronger (9)0.440.561.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.880.180.890.220.880.12
vs Weaker (4)1.750.752.001.501.500.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tuzla City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tuzla City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tuzla City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tuzla City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.574.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
TC wins
3
Draws
2
VEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tuzla City vs Velež · H/A from TC
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/24AVelež Vs TC1-1
23/10/23HTC Vs Velež1-1
14/04/23HTC Vs Velež1-1
26/02/23HTC Vs Velež0-1
05/09/22AVelež Vs TC4-0

Tuzla CityTuzla City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/24AZrinjski Vs TC4-0
13/05/24HTC Vs Borac Banja Luka2-6
03/05/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs TC2-0
29/04/24HTC Vs Igman Konjic1-2
24/04/24AZvijezda 09 Vs TC3-2
19/04/24AGOŠK Gabela Vs TC1-0
12/04/24HTC Vs Siroki Brijeg3-1
06/04/24APosušje Vs TC1-1
29/03/24HTC Vs FK Sarajevo1-5
16/03/24ASloga Doboj Vs TC3-1

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/24HVEL Vs GOŠK Gabela3-3
11/05/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-1
03/05/24HVEL Vs Posušje2-0
28/04/24AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL3-0
23/04/24HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
19/04/24HVEL Vs Zvijezda 093-1
13/04/24AZrinjski Vs VEL1-0
07/04/24HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1
29/03/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
17/03/24HVEL Vs Igman Konjic2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.86
HomeWLWLL1.21
AwayDLLLL0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%33%12%
AVG goals3.003.212.81
Over 1.5 %80%88%73%
Over 2.5 %58%71%46%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.221.620.85
Conceded1.781.581.96
BTTS60%67%54%
Clean Sheet16%25%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.64
HomeDWWWD1.89
AwayLWLLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%36%
AVG goals2.442.821.95
Over 1.5 %60%68%50%
Over 2.5 %36%39%32%
Over 3.5 %24%32%14%
Scored1.421.790.95
Conceded1.021.041.00
BTTS38%46%27%
Clean Sheet46%50%41%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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