UCD’s defensive solidity is on display, conceding just one goal per game at home against weaker opposition, while Bray Wanderers have struggled to keep the ball away, conceding 0.71 goals per match on the road against stronger sides. The model projects a tight encounter with an expected 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.5% chance, and the model favours a home win. Home win probability is 42%, draw 32%, away win 27%. The single suggested pick is Under 3.5, a 83.2% chance. UCD’s recent form includes a win over Finn Harps, while Bray Wanderers are still recovering from two straight defeats. The match is likely to stay low-scoring, with the home side’s 1.6 goals per game and the away side’s 0.71 goals per game setting the stage for a cautious, balanced contest.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, UCD, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended the home side’s recent win streak but left the model’s home-win call incorrect. The model had given UCD a 42% chance of victory, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of a Bray Wanderers win. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, was made with an 83.2% probability and it hit, as the total of two goals stayed well below the threshold. Bray Wanderers, after two straight defeats, could not overturn the result, while UCD’s recent form note of coming off a win was not enough to secure the win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCD win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UCD
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.97
1.27
0.93
1.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.80
1.40
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.50
0.95
1.60
1.00
1.40
0.90
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.17
2.00
1.12
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
1.36
1.57
2.00
0.71
0.71
vs Similar (13)
1.69
1.00
2.43
0.57
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.5%
0-0
13.2%
1-0
13.1%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.0%
UCD goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.6%
5.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.7%
8.0%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.5%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cork City
2.17
UCD
1.55
Athlone Town
1.54
Wexford
1.50
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.22
Treaty United
1.22
Longford Town
0.81
Kerry
0.75
UCD is 0.14 points better than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
1.78
Wexford
1.61
Bray Wanderers
1.49
Athlone Town
1.38
UCD
1.26
Longford Town
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.14
Treaty United
1.14
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.94
UCD is 0.22 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cork City
0.64
UCD
1.03
Treaty United
1.19
Finn Harps
1.19
Bray Wanderers
1.28
Athlone Town
1.31
Wexford
1.50
Kerry
1.53
Cobh Ramblers
1.56
Longford Town
1.78
UCD is 0.26 goals better than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UCD
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.19
0.75
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.07
0.86
1.57
0.00
0.57
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.46
1.71
0.14
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UCD
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.35
0.80
0.40
0.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.81
0.38
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.29
0.71
0.43
0.71
0.14
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.54
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cork City
Athlone Town
Wexford
Finn Harps
Treaty United
Cobh Ramblers
Longford Town
Kerry