Defensive solidity will shape the early stages, with UCD’s home form showing a modest 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against weaker opposition, while Bray Wanderers, playing away against stronger teams, average only 0.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. The model favours a UCD victory, assigning a 44% chance to a home win, a 31% chance to a draw and a 25% chance to an away win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight affair, most likely ending 1-1 with a 14.3% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, the only one highlighted. Suggested picks include the model’s selection of Under 3.5 with an 81.7% probability. UCD’s recent win over Finn Harps and Bray’s struggle after two defeats set the narrative, but the numbers still lean strongly toward a home win.
Results analysis
The win extends UCD’s recent run, as they came off a 5-4 victory over Finn Harps. Bray Wanderers, still recovering from two straight defeats, were the underdogs. The model predicted a home win with a 44% probability, and that call proved correct as UCD edged Bray 1-0. The most likely total was 2 goals, with an 81.7% chance of under 3.5, a selection that hit. The model’s other picks were not listed. The final score of 1-0 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome and the accuracy of the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCD win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UCD
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.07
1.20
1.00
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.80
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
1.10
1.40
1.10
1.27
1.09
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
2.00
0.87
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.14
2.43
0.57
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.1%
Under 2.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
12.8%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.6%
UCD goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.8%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.1%
8.4%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.9%
3.6%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cork City
2.17
UCD
1.55
Athlone Town
1.54
Wexford
1.50
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.22
Treaty United
1.22
Longford Town
0.81
Kerry
0.75
UCD is 0.14 points better than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
1.78
Wexford
1.61
Bray Wanderers
1.49
Athlone Town
1.38
UCD
1.26
Longford Town
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.14
Treaty United
1.14
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.94
UCD is 0.22 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cork City
0.64
UCD
1.03
Treaty United
1.19
Finn Harps
1.19
Bray Wanderers
1.28
Athlone Town
1.31
Wexford
1.50
Kerry
1.53
Cobh Ramblers
1.56
Longford Town
1.78
UCD is 0.26 goals better than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UCD
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.56
0.20
0.40
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.62
0.71
0.60
0.70
0.64
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
1.13
0.53
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.83
1.17
0.14
0.29
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.43
1.57
0.14
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UCD
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.71
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.64
0.36
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.31
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.29
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.71
0.86
0.43
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cork City
Athlone Town
Wexford
Finn Harps
Treaty United
Cobh Ramblers
Longford Town
Kerry