UCD are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 43% chance of victory against Bray Wanderers, who face a 28% chance of triumph and a 29% chance of a draw. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% probability. UCD’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against weaker opposition, while Bray Wanderers, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 75.5% and Over 1.5 goals at 72.7%. The home win probability is 43%, the draw probability 29%, and the away win probability 28%. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 is hit, while Over 1.5 is miss.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Bray Wanderers snatching a 0-1 victory over UCD. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 43% probability but proved wrong. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.5% chance, while its Over 1.5 pick missed at 72.7%. UCD’s recent form, a win, had been promising, yet they fell short against an away side that had just endured two defeats. Bray’s lone goal sealed the result, confirming the model’s under-goals call and overturning the expected home advantage. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCD win✗ Miss
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers win✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UCD
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.20
1.21
1.14
1.62
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.73
0.80
0.80
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
1.47
1.44
1.33
1.60
1.60
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.40
2.31
1.25
1.50
1.57
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
1.23
1.57
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (14)
2.00
1.50
2.43
1.43
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.67
4.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.2%
0-1 ✓
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
4.9%
UCD goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.6%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
8.9%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.2%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dundalk
2.19
Cobh Ramblers
1.89
Bray Wanderers
1.82
UCD
1.51
Treaty United
1.31
Wexford
1.26
Longford Town
1.25
Finn Harps
1.00
Kerry
1.00
Athlone Town
0.56
UCD is 0.31 points worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.51 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dundalk
2.06
Cobh Ramblers
1.87
Bray Wanderers
1.74
Treaty United
1.33
UCD
1.32
Wexford
1.20
Longford Town
1.19
Finn Harps
1.17
Kerry
1.11
Athlone Town
0.81
UCD is 0.42 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dundalk
0.86
Cobh Ramblers
1.03
UCD
1.19
Treaty United
1.28
Wexford
1.37
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.58
Kerry
1.61
Longford Town
1.64
Athlone Town
1.92
UCD is 0.22 goals better than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UCD
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.50
0.79
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.36
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.74
0.56
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.00
0.62
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.77
0.71
0.57
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.79
1.00
0.86
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UCD
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
0.40
0.40
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.74
0.89
0.33
0.60
1.10
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.31
0.62
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.46
0.86
0.43
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.71
1.43
0.57
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
2.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundalk
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Longford Town
Wexford
Finn Harps
Kerry
Athlone Town