PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

UCD vs Longford Town Prediction & Stats

Date: 09/10/2026
Time: 18:45
UCD
UCD
Vs
51%
22%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

A high-scoring affair is on the cards as UCD’s average 2.4 goals per game at home clashes with Longford Town’s 1.6 away. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 27%. The expected total is 3.7 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.1% probability. UCD’s home form shows they concede just 1.0 goal on average against similar opposition, while Longford concedes 2.0 away. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.0%), Under 6.5 (92.0%), Over 1.5 (89.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.3%), Home +2 handicap (87.3%), Under 5.5 (83.2%), and Home under 3.5 goals (82.9%). With UCD coming off a 5-4 win and Longford a 2-2 draw, the stage is set for a lively contest.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCD win
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town win
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

UCDUCD

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-643W01L23L06L52W00D12L41W11D54WA·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07A·ATH31/07H·TRE03/08H·WEX07/08A·KER21/08H·FIN28/08
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.502.071.471.801.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)2.221.002.401.002.001.00
vs Weaker (21)1.811.711.901.701.731.73
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W31W21W43W12L10W50W12L42W22DA·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08A·ATH07/08H·BRA22/08A·COB28/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.502.071.291.251.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.562.001.502.001.602.00
vs Weaker (21)1.671.292.301.001.091.55
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.2%
Under 2.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.2%
No
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.1%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
2-0
5.8%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.6%
UCD goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
01234
03.3%3.0%3.0%1.5%0.6%
14.6%9.1%6.4%3.3%1.3%
25.8%8.9%6.8%3.5%1.3%
34.2%6.4%4.9%2.5%1.0%
42.2%3.4%2.6%1.3%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
UCD is 0.29 points worse than Longford Town in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
UCD is 0.29 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 2.57).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
UCD is 0.71 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
UCD or Draw
73.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
22%
27%
covers UCD + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCD or Longford Town
77.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
22%
27%
covers UCD + Longford Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Longford Town
49.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
22%
27%
covers Draw + Longford Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
UCD over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 3.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to UCD, so a minus line means UCD give that many goals of a start and Longford Town receive them. At -1, UCD must win by two or more to land; a one-goal UCD win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (UCD)
UCD -2
15.5%
Draw -2
15.5%
Longford Town +2
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (UCD)
UCD -1
31.0%
Draw -1
20.0%
Longford Town +1
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (UCD)
UCD +1
73.3%
Draw +1
14.0%
Longford Town -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (UCD)
UCD +2
87.3%
Draw +2
7.9%
Longford Town -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

UCDUCD

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D11D02L22D00D00D20W10W12LA·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07A·ATH31/07H·TRE03/08H·WEX07/08A·KER21/08H·FIN28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.700.730.871.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.561.000.600.750.50
vs Weaker (21)0.860.760.601.001.090.55
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L21W01L10W10W02L31W20WA·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08A·ATH07/08H·BRA22/08A·COB28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.930.500.620.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.780.780.750.500.801.00
vs Weaker (21)0.760.521.000.500.550.55
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

UCDUCD

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L12L04L30W00D12L21W01L42WA·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07A·ATH31/07H·TRE03/08H·WEX07/08A·KER21/08H·FIN28/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.801.330.600.801.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.330.441.400.401.250.50
vs Weaker (21)0.950.951.300.700.641.18
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W20W22D11D00D40W10W11D02LA·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08A·ATH07/08H·BRA22/08A·COB28/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.901.140.790.621.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.781.220.751.500.801.00
vs Weaker (21)0.900.761.300.500.551.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.596.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.0%-------
Under 6.592.0%-------
Over 1.589.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals88.3%-------
Home +2 handicap87.3%-------
Under 5.583.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals82.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.5%-------
Home or Away77.6%-------
Home or Draw73.3%-------
Home +1 handicap73.3%-------
Over 2.571.2%-------
BTTS Yes70.2%-------

🎽 13. Player market rates

UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
UCD wins
2
Draws
0
LT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

UCD vs Longford Town · H/A from UCD
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25HUCD Vs Longford Town2-1
28/06/25ALongford Town Vs UCD0-2
09/05/25HUCD Vs Longford Town1-1
12/04/25ALongford Town Vs UCD0-1
18/10/24HUCD Vs Longford Town2-2
27/07/24ALongford Town Vs UCD1-2
03/05/24HUCD Vs Longford Town1-0
29/03/24ALongford Town Vs UCD1-2

UCDUCD

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HUCD Vs Finn Harps5-4
21/08/26AKerry Vs UCD1-1
07/08/26HUCD Vs Wexford4-1
03/08/26HUCD Vs Treaty United1-2
31/07/26AAthlone Town Vs UCD0-0
24/07/26HUCD Vs Cork City5-2
10/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs UCD6-0
28/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs UCD3-2
24/10/25HUCD Vs Bray Wanderers0-1
17/10/25AFinn Harps Vs UCD3-4

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ACobh Ramblers Vs LT2-2
22/08/26HLT Vs Bray Wanderers4-2
07/08/26AAthlone Town Vs LT2-1
03/08/26HLT Vs Finn Harps5-0
31/07/26ATreaty United Vs LT0-1
25/07/26HLT Vs Wexford1-2
10/07/26ACork City Vs LT3-4
17/10/25AAthlone Town Vs LT1-2
10/10/25HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers3-1
05/10/25ATreaty United Vs LT1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.46
HomeLWLWW1.52
AwayWLLDD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.802.762.84
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.421.521.32
Conceded1.381.241.52
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.38
HomeWWLWW1.80
AwayWWWLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%52%24%
AVG goals2.962.883.04
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.421.761.08
Conceded1.541.121.96
BTTS60%56%64%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

← all matches