Treaty United's recent defeat against Cobh Ramblers, their last match, is a storyline worth noting. However, UCD's recent form, coming off a win, might suggest they're gaining momentum. The model's selection for this match is a Home win, with a probability of 44%. The draw percentage stands at 29, while the away win percentage is 28.
The expected total goals in this match is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.6%. UCD's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.4 and 1.3 goals per match, respectively, against similar opponents. Treaty United's away scoring and conceding averages are 1.0 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively, against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 (74.1%), with a 9% edge, and Over 1.5 (74.1%), which has already hit.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Treaty United pulled off a 1-2 away win against UCD, extending their win streak despite coming off a defeat. The pre-match favourite, UCD, was surprisingly outdone by the model's selection, Home win, which had a 44% chance of occurring, but ultimately proved incorrect. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's selection, Home win, had a 44% chance of occurring, but ultimately proved incorrect.
The model's selections, Under 3.5 and Over 1.5, both hit with probabilities of 74.1% and 74.1% respectively. Under 3.5 hit, as the final score was 1-2, and Over 1.5 hit, as the final score was 1-2.
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ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
UCD winâ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.60
Edge
-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Dafabet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.63
10Bet
1.63
Drawâ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.79
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.08
Dafabet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Treaty United winâ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.63
Edge
+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.00
Pinnacle
5.00
Dafabet
4.80
Betfair
4.75
Unibet
4.70
â― 2. Goal Analysis
UCD
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.57
1.21
1.69
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
0.90
1.80
1.00
1.80
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
1.70
1.44
1.33
1.64
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
1.60
1.27
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.36
1.57
1.57
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.25
1.71
1.00
0.89
1.44
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
@ 1.19-2.4%
Under 1.5
25.9%
@ 3.89+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.08
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.65-8.0%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 2.06+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Unibet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
@ 2.61-9.0%
Under 3.5
74.1%
@ 1.40+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
10Bet
2.80
888Sport
2.70
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
@ 1.67-1.8%
No
47.1%
@ 2.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
No
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Betfair
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.86+7.4%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.19+3.9%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.16+3.0%
0-0
8.8%@ 11.88+5.2%
2-0
8.1%@ 7.75+2.5%
0-1
7.3%@ 13.09+4.0%
1-2 â
6.9%@ 13.52+3.8%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.24+1.8%
UCD goals ↓
Treaty United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.3%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.8%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.0%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.4%
2.5%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).
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ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
UCD is 0.14 points better than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.43).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
UCD is 1.14 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.14).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
UCD is 0.86 goals worse than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.43).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UCD
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.64
0.86
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.75
0.56
0.89
1.00
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.50
0.33
0.47
0.20
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.64
0.29
0.86
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.44
0.43
0.14
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UCD
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.36
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.30
1.00
0.20
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.95
0.89
0.44
0.64
1.36
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.27
0.80
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
0.73
1.29
0.71
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.81
1.29
0.86
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.1%
1.40
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
+9.0%
â Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
-2.4%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →