This highly anticipated match between UCD and Wexford in the Ireland: First Division is finely balanced, with recent form suggesting an intriguing storyline. UCD is coming off a win against Wexford, securing a 4-1 victory, while Wexford is looking to bounce back from a 1-4 defeat against the same opponent. UCD's home form is impressive, scoring 3 goals on average at home while conceding just 1, particularly against stronger opponents. In contrast, Wexford's away form is less convincing, scoring 1.57 goals on average while conceding 1.14.
The model predicts a 41% chance of a UCD home win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of a Wexford away win. The model's selection is a UCD home win. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has a 77.8% probability. UCD has a 41% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing. The model's selection of Over 1.5 has a 77.8% probability, with no edge.
Results analysis
The win extends UCD's run, with the team coming off a win and having a strong recent form at home, scoring an average of 3 goals while conceding just 1. The final score of 4-1 confirms the actual result of a home win, which was the model's correct call. The model's selection was the home win, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting, having a probability of 77.8%. The model's call was correct, vindicating the pre-match favourite.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCD win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 1.93
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.97
SBO
1.96
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.48
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.78
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
Wexford win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.31
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.60
1xBet
3.46
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UCD
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
1.53
1.27
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.00
1.80
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.52
1.71
1.40
1.40
1.64
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wexford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.13
1.47
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.70
0.40
1.60
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.30
1.25
1.50
1.40
1.10
1.10
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
@ 1.18+0.1%
Under 1.5
22.2%
@ 4.09-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.61-4.4%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 2.14+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.65
888Sport
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 2.49-6.2%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.44+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
10Bet
2.62
888Sport
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
@ 1.54-1.9%
No
42.7%
@ 2.24+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
No
William Hil
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.41+6.4%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.68+3.3%
1-0
8.1%@ 8.31+2.9%
1-2
7.7%@ 10.36+3.5%
0-0
7.4%@ 12.35+3.9%
2-0
6.9%@ 9.94+2.6%
0-1
6.8%@ 11.11+2.9%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.01+1.8%
UCD goals ↓
Wexford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.8%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.7%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
8.9%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.4%
4.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Wexford goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
UCD is 0.57 points better than Wexford in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
UCD is 1.29 goals better than Wexford in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
UCD is 0.43 goals worse than Wexford in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UCD
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
0.80
0.80
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.71
0.50
0.80
1.00
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wexford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
0.50
0.85
0.70
1.00
0.30
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UCD
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.47
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.33
1.00
0.20
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
1.00
0.90
0.60
0.64
1.36
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wexford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.8%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
+0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →