The contest between UCSA and Chernihiv is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modest scoring affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5 % chance. UCSA’s home form shows a balanced attack and defence, scoring an average of 1.27 goals and conceding 0.91 against similar opposition, while Chernihiv’s away numbers are weaker, with 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 38 % for a UCSA victory, 31 % for a draw and 31 % for a Chernihiv win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 5.5 (96.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4 %), Under 4.5 (91.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.3 %) and Home under 2.5 goals (87.3 %). Both sides have shown resilience in recent fixtures, with UCSA unbeaten in five games and Chernihiv ending a draw streak. The match remains finely balanced, but the model’s pick points to a UCSA win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCSA win
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv win
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UCSA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.27
1.47
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
3.40
1.33
3.33
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.08
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.38
1.25
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.15
1.29
1.43
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.44
1.11
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
UCSA goals ↓
Chernihiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.6%
8.0%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCSA goals (down), columns = Chernihiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
UCSA is 0.40 points better than Chernihiv in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
UCSA is 0.60 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
UCSA is 0.40 goals worse than Chernihiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
UCSA or Draw
69.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
30%
covers UCSA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCSA or Chernihiv
68.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
30%
covers UCSA + Chernihiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chernihiv
61.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
30%
covers Draw + Chernihiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
UCSA over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to UCSA, so a minus line means UCSA give that many goals of a start and Chernihiv receive them. At -1, UCSA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal UCSA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (UCSA)
UCSA -2
5.6%
Draw -2
11.4%
Chernihiv +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (UCSA)
UCSA -1
17.0%
Draw -1
21.2%
Chernihiv +1
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (UCSA)
UCSA +1
69.6%
Draw +1
18.3%
Chernihiv -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (UCSA)
UCSA +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.6%
Chernihiv -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UCSA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.67
0.25
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.81
0.56
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
1.00
0.44
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.6%
Under 0.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.4%
Under 1.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.7%
Under 2.5
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCSA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UCSA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.58
0.75
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.56
0.69
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.17
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.4%
Under 0.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.8%
Under 1.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCSA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
UCSA and Chernihiv have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
UCSA and Chernihiv have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
UCSA and Chernihiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
UCSA and Chernihiv have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka