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UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' Result & Analysis

Date: 14/10/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 3-0
UCSA
UCSA
Vs
50%
25%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCSA win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

UCSAUCSA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W13L32W00D50W50W21W11D34L11DA·KUD08/08H·SK 17/08A·YAR26/08H·MET01/09H·KRE11/09H·DIN16/09A·MET21/09H·VIK29/09H·KUD05/10A·SK 10/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.421.082.571.292.200.80
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (11)2.641.183.001.502.200.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %42% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W23L41W11D04L00D03L21W11DH·AHR24/05H·MET08/08H·UCS26/08A·DIN01/09H·MET06/09H·VIK11/09H·KUD16/09A·SK 22/09H·KRE27/09A·MET03/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.171.061.381.210.93
vs Stronger (10)0.701.100.401.001.001.20
vs Similar (20)1.351.201.361.551.330.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.5%
UCSA goals ↓
Yarud Mariupol' goals →
01234
05.5%4.6%3.6%1.5%0.5%
17.1%11%6.6%2.8%0.9%
27.5%9.6%6.1%2.6%0.8%
34.6%5.9%3.7%1.6%0.5%
42.1%2.7%1.7%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCSA goals (down), columns = Yarud Mariupol' goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chernihiv
3.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2.43
SK Poltava
1.88
Kudrivka
1.71
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.67
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.50
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.50
Metal Kharkiv
1.41
Nyva Ternopil
1.40
UCSA
1.38
Bukovyna
1.36
Prykarpattia
1.33
Minai
1.17
Yarud Mariupol'
1.17
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.15
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.71
Kremin'
0.61
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Khust City
0.00
UCSA is 0.21 points better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chernihiv
2.50
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.91
UCSA
1.62
SK Poltava
1.46
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.42
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.33
Prykarpattia
1.33
Khust City
1.33
Metal Kharkiv
1.32
Kudrivka
1.25
Nyva Ternopil
1.24
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04
Minai
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.92
Bukovyna
0.91
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.86
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.79
Kremin'
0.65
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
UCSA is 0.58 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chernihiv
0.00
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.71
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.74
Kudrivka
0.79
SK Poltava
0.88
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.88
Bukovyna
0.91
Metal Kharkiv
0.95
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.08
Nyva Ternopil
1.16
Prykarpattia
1.17
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.18
Minai
1.30
UCSA
1.46
Yarud Mariupol'
1.46
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.54
Kremin'
1.78
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.92
Khust City
3.00
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.46).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

UCSAUCSA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L12L00D30W40W01L11D13L10WA·KUD08/08H·SK 17/08A·YAR26/08H·MET01/09H·KRE11/09H·DIN16/09A·MET21/09H·VIK29/09H·KUD05/10A·SK 10/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.831.431.000.800.60
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (11)1.270.911.671.170.800.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W21W20W01L02L00D01L10W01LH·AHR24/05H·MET08/08H·UCS26/08A·DIN01/09H·MET06/09H·VIK11/09H·KUD16/09A·SK 22/09H·KRE27/09A·MET03/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.750.750.500.43
vs Stronger (10)0.300.700.200.600.400.80
vs Similar (20)0.800.551.000.820.560.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCSA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

UCSAUCSA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W00D20W10W20W00D21W01LA·KUD08/08H·SK 17/08A·YAR26/08H·MET01/09H·KRE11/09H·DIN16/09A·MET21/09H·VIK29/09H·KUD05/10A·SK 10/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.251.140.291.400.20
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (11)1.360.271.330.331.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L21W10W02L00D02L11D10WH·AHR24/05H·MET08/08H·UCS26/08A·DIN01/09H·MET06/09H·VIK11/09H·KUD16/09A·SK 22/09H·KRE27/09A·MET03/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.310.620.710.50
vs Stronger (10)0.400.400.200.400.600.40
vs Similar (20)0.550.650.360.730.780.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCSA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (26)
€28m
BUK (25)
€9m
ED (23)
€6m
KUD (24)
€5m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
KKI (3)
€0m
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€10m
BUK (10)
€4m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (6)
€7m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€11m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
UCS wins
0
Draws
0
YM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' · H/A from UCS
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/24AYarud Mariupol' Vs UCS2-3

UCSAUCSA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/10/24ASK Poltava Vs UCS1-1
05/10/24HUCS Vs Kudrivka3-4
29/09/24HUCS Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka1-1
21/09/24AMetalurh Zaporizhya Vs UCS1-2
16/09/24HUCS Vs Dinaz Vyshhorod5-0
11/09/24HUCS Vs Kremin'5-0
01/09/24HUCS Vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0-0
26/08/24AYarud Mariupol' Vs UCS2-3
17/08/24HUCS Vs SK Poltava1-3
08/08/24AKudrivka Vs UCS0-1

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/24AMetalist 1925 Kharkiv Vs YM1-1
27/09/24HYM Vs Kremin'2-1
22/09/24ASK Poltava Vs YM3-0
16/09/24HYM Vs Kudrivka0-0
11/09/24HYM Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-4
06/09/24HYM Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya1-1
01/09/24ADinaz Vyshhorod Vs YM1-4
26/08/24HYM Vs UCSA2-3
08/08/24HYM Vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv1-0
24/05/24HYM Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

UCSA
UCSA
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD2.00
HomeDWWDL1.57
AwayWWWWD2.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%43%80%
AVG goals3.503.863.00
Over 1.5 %83%86%80%
Over 2.5 %67%71%60%
Over 3.5 %58%71%40%
Scored2.422.572.20
Conceded1.081.290.80
BTTS58%57%60%
Clean Sheet42%43%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD1.22
HomeLDLDW1.08
AwayLDWLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%23%33%
AVG goals2.282.382.17
Over 1.5 %68%69%67%
Over 2.5 %38%42%33%
Over 3.5 %20%23%17%
Scored1.121.001.25
Conceded1.161.380.92
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet24%19%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Epitsentr DunayivtsiEpitsentr Dunayivtsi2356
74%
2.4
4417+27
2.7
74%
48%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
1231.90.7
-
2SK PoltavaSK Poltava2445
54%
1.9
3521+14
2.3
67%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.9
-
3KudrivkaKudrivka2441
50%
1.7
3019+11
2.0
67%
29%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.20.8
-
4Metalist 1925 KharkivMetalist 1925 Kharkiv2440
46%
1.7
3421+13
2.3
75%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
28
107111.40.9
-
5Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka2436
38%
1.5
3217+15
2.0
62%
29%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.30.7
-
6Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2535
36%
1.4
3129+2
2.4
72%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.2
-
7UCSAUCSA2433
38%
1.4
3935+4
3.1
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.5
-
8Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk2233
45%
1.5
1926-7
2.0
59%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.91.2
-
9PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2432
33%
1.3
3228+4
2.5
67%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.2
-
10Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv2231
36%
1.4
2921+8
2.3
73%
41%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.31.0
-
11BukovynaBukovyna2230
36%
1.4
2020+0
1.8
64%
23%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4230.90.9
-
12Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2630
27%
1.2
2428-4
2.0
65%
31%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
13Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'2428
33%
1.2
2535-10
2.5
71%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.5
-
14MinaiMinai2327
30%
1.2
2330-7
2.3
70%
48%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
15Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya2626
23%
1.0
2440-16
2.5
77%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
16Dinaz VyshhorodDinaz Vyshhorod2417
12%
0.7
1946-27
2.7
79%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
17KreminKremin'2314
13%
0.6
1541-26
2.4
70%
52%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
18ChernihivChernihiv26
100%
3.0
50+5
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.50.0
-
19Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
20Khust CityKhust City30
0%
0.0
49-5
4.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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