Ulytau enter the match on a positive streak, having won their last game 3-0 against Zhetysu, while Altay (Kazakhstan) come off three consecutive defeats and a 0-1 loss to Zhenys. The model rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 62% probability to Ulytau’s triumph. This edge stems from Ulytau’s stronger home form, scoring 1.29 goals and conceding 1.57 against similar opposition, compared with Altay’s away average of 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. The expected total goals hover at 3.4, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Ulytau, carrying a 9.8% probability. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Home +2 handicap (93.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.5%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), and Over 1.5 (85.7%). The home win probability is 62%, the draw 21%, and the away win 17%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ulytau win
63.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) win
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ulytau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
1.12
1.81
0.64
1.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.93
1.00
2.00
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.31
1.29
1.57
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.50
2.31
1.38
1.71
1.59
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.38
1.33
2.33
1.20
2.40
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.30
2.60
1.10
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
9.0%
3-1
7.5%
1-0
7.0%
3-0
6.9%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.6%
Ulytau goals ↓
Altay (Kazakhstan) goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
2.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1
7.0%
9.3%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.0%
9.7%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.9%
7.5%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
4.0%
4.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ulytau goals (down), columns = Altay (Kazakhstan) goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Ulytau is 0.63 points better than Altay (Kazakhstan) in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Ulytau is 0.03 goals better than Altay (Kazakhstan) in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Ulytau is 1.40 goals better than Altay (Kazakhstan) in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ulytau
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ulytau
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ulytau or Draw
84.3%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
16%
covers Ulytau + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ulytau or Altay (Kazakhstan)
79.5%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
16%
covers Ulytau + Altay (Kazakhstan)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Altay (Kazakhstan)
36.2%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
16%
covers Draw + Altay (Kazakhstan)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ulytau over/under 0.5
Over
90.0%
Under
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 3.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ulytau, so a minus line means Ulytau give that many goals of a start and Altay (Kazakhstan) receive them. At -1, Ulytau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ulytau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ulytau)
Ulytau -2
22.9%
Draw -2
19.2%
Altay (Kazakhstan) +2
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ulytau)
Ulytau -1
42.1%
Draw -1
21.7%
Altay (Kazakhstan) +1
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ulytau)
Ulytau +1
84.3%
Draw +1
9.7%
Altay (Kazakhstan) -1
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ulytau)
Ulytau +2
94.1%
Draw +2
4.2%
Altay (Kazakhstan) -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ulytau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.56
0.75
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.71
0.56
0.89
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.57
0.57
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.82
0.76
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.33
1.67
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.3%
Under 0.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.4%
Under 1.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.1%
Under 2.5
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ulytau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.56
1.06
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.21
0.44
1.11
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.88
0.71
1.00
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.46
0.54
0.88
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.75
1.60
0.50
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.3%
Under 0.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.5%
Under 1.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.6%
Under 2.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Ulytau and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Ulytau and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Ulytau and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Ulytau and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Kaisar
Atyrau
Zhetysu