Ulytau vs FC Astana Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026

Time: 13:00

Final 0-2

Ulytau

25%

27%

48%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

FC Astana

Kazakhstan: Premier League

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

In this Kazakhstan Premier League match, a recent-form storyline emerges as FC Astana, on a 3-game winning run, faces off against Ulytau, who comes off a draw. However, the model's prediction suggests an away win for FC Astana, which has a 48% chance of occurring. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals has a 77.3% probability, with a 4% edge, while Under 3.5 goals is also the model's selection, with a 70.2% probability and 1% edge. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, and the most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability. Ulytau has scored an average of 1.18 goals at home, while conceding 1.55, but faces a similar-strength opponent. FC Astana, meanwhile, has scored 1.5 goals away, while conceding 1.2, against a similar-strength opponent. The model's selection of Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 goals both have a high probability, indicating a closely contested match. The model's pick, an away win, has a 48% chance, with Ulytau having a 25% chance and a draw a 27% chance.

Results analysis

The win extends Ulytau's recent run of draws, however, their home form hasn't been enough to prevent a 0-2 defeat to FC Astana, who secured the actual result of Away win. The model's selection, Away win, came in as the predicted favourite with a 48% probability, and its call was correct. In the model's suggested picks, Over 1.5 goals landed with a 77.3% probability, while Under 3.5 goals also hit with a 70.2% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ulytau win✗ Miss

24.9%

Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.33

Edge

+4.1%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

4.75

1xBet

4.74

Betfair

4.60

Marathonbet

4.55

William Hil

4.50

Draw✗ Miss

26.9%

Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.46

Edge

+0.8%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

3.67

Pinnacle

3.65

Bet365

3.60

Betfair

3.60

Superbet

3.55

FC Astana win✓ Hit

48.2%

Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.70

Edge

-4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Unibet

1.79

Betano

1.75

Superbet

1.73

1xBet

1.72

Dafabet

1.71

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ulytau

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.0

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.03	1.57	1.33	1.67	0.73	1.47
vs Stronger (15)	0.67	1.73	1.12	1.75	0.14	1.71
vs Similar (14)	1.21	1.50	1.17	1.83	1.25	1.25
vs Weaker (1)	4.00	0.00	4.00	0.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	17% (-11pp vs league)

This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Astana

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

4.6

Avg scored

2.9

Avg conceded

1.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.43	1.20	3.27	1.53	1.60	0.87
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (13)	2.00	1.69	2.67	2.33	1.43	1.14
vs Weaker (17)	2.76	0.82	3.67	1.00	1.75	0.62
Clean sheet %	33% (+6pp vs league)

This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

77.3%

@ 1.24+4.3%

Under 1.5

22.7%

@ 3.35-4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.28

Betano

1.27

Betfair

1.25

888Sport

1.25

Superbet

1.24

Under

Betfair

3.60

Unibet

3.55

Marathonbet

3.50

1xBet

3.50

10Bet

3.40

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

52.0%

@ 1.83+1.5%

Under 2.5

48.0%

@ 1.87-1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

SBO

1.90

Pinnacle

1.86

1xBet

1.86

Betfair

1.85

Bet365

1.85

Under

Bet365

1.95

Pinnacle

1.93

Unibet

1.91

1xBet

1.90

10Bet

1.90

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

29.8%

@ 2.98-0.6%

Under 3.5

70.2%

@ 1.30+0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

3.30

888Sport

3.20

10Bet

3.10

1xBet

2.97

Marathonbet

2.97

Under

Unibet

1.34

10Bet

1.33

Betano

1.32

Superbet

1.31

1xBet

1.30

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

55.4%

@ 1.75+3.5%

44.6%

@ 1.89-3.5%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

William Hil

1.80

Betfair

1.80

Superbet

1.80

888Sport

1.80

Marathonbet

1.77

Unibet

1.98

1xBet

1.92

Superbet

1.92

Betfair

1.91

888Sport

1.91

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.8%@ 6.17+6.0%

1-2

9.5%@ 7.08+3.6%

0-1

9.2%@ 6.15+2.4%

0-2 ✓

8.5%@ 7.34+2.8%

0-0

7.5%@ 9.03+2.9%

2-1

6.5%@ 12.25+3.1%

1-0

6.0%@ 10.76+2.0%

2-2

5.3%@ 13.16+2.1%

Ulytau goals ↓

	FC Astana goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	9.2%	8.5%	4.6%	1.9%
1	6.0%	13%	9.5%	5.2%	2.1%
2	4.0%	6.5%	5.3%	2.9%	1.2%
3	1.5%	2.4%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ulytau goals (down), columns = FC Astana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Kairat Almaty

2.27

FC Astana

2.19

FK Tobol Kostanay

2.08

Yelimay Semey

1.85

Aktobe

1.65

Zhenys

1.38

Ordabasy

1.35

Irtysh

1.33

Kaspiy

1.32

Altay (Kazakhstan)

1.27

Okzhetpes

1.23

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.04

Zhetysu

0.92

Ulytau

0.88

Kaisar

0.85

Atyrau

0.73

Ulytau is 1.31 points worse than FC Astana in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

FC Astana

2.54

Kairat Almaty

2.04

Yelimay Semey

1.81

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.73

Aktobe

1.50

Ordabasy

1.42

Zhenys

1.42

Okzhetpes

1.35

Irtysh

1.33

Kaspiy

1.32

Altay (Kazakhstan)

1.27

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.96

Kaisar

0.92

Atyrau

0.85

Zhetysu

0.81

Ulytau

0.77

Ulytau is 1.77 goals worse than FC Astana in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 2.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Kairat Almaty

0.73

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.96

Ordabasy

1.08

Aktobe

1.12

FC Astana

1.15

Zhenys

1.15

Yelimay Semey

1.19

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.23

Irtysh

1.39

Kaspiy

1.41

Altay (Kazakhstan)

1.46

Zhetysu

1.58

Ulytau

1.58

Kaisar

1.62

Atyrau

1.73

Okzhetpes

1.73

Ulytau is 0.42 goals worse than FC Astana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ulytau

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FC Astana

For 5.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 4.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 17.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 26.5

⚠️ Fouls

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Ulytau

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (20)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (21)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (9)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Astana

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	8.6	8.2	9.0	0.8	0.8	0.7	21.2	20.8	21.8
vs Stronger (1)	6.0	6.0	-	1.0	1.0	-	15.0	15.0	-
vs Similar (26)	9.0	9.0	9.0	1.4	1.7	1.2	22.1	22.7	21.8
vs Weaker (23)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	38%	50%	25%	8%	8%	8%	50%	50%	50%
% under line	62%	50%	75%	92%	92%	92%	50%	50%	50%

This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Okzhetpes

13.0

Kairat Almaty

10.3

Aktobe

9.5

FK Tobol Kostanay

9.3

FC Astana

8.8

Kyzyl-Zhar

8.5

Ordabasy

8.3

Zhetysu

6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Zhetysu

6.1

FK Tobol Kostanay

5.6

Ordabasy

5.1

Aktobe

5.1

Kaisar

5.0

Kairat Almaty

4.0

FC Astana

4.0

Kyzyl-Zhar

3.2

Okzhetpes

2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

FK Tobol Kostanay

30.1

Ordabasy

30.0

Aktobe

27.0

Kairat Almaty

26.3

FC Astana

23.5

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

0.0%

Under 9.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.07

Superbet

2.02

Under

Superbet

1.70

Marathonbet

1.64

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

0.0%

Under 3.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

0.0%

Under 21.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	77.3%	1.24	10Bet 1.28	Betano 1.27	Betfair 1.25	888Sport 1.25	Superbet 1.24	+4.3%	✓ Hit
Under 3.5	70.2%	1.30	Unibet 1.34	10Bet 1.33	Betano 1.32	Superbet 1.31	1xBet 1.30	+0.6%	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FTK (21)

€11m

ORD (22)

€10m

AKT (25)

€10m

KA (22)

€8m

FA (19)

€8m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AKT (12)

€5m

FTK (6)

€4m

KA (7)

€3m

ORD (8)

€3m

FA (6)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ORD (4)

€3m

FTK (5)

€3m

FA (3)

€2m

KA (5)

€2m

AKT (4)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ORD (10)

€4m

FA (10)

€4m

FTK (10)

€4m

KA (10)

€3m

AKT (9)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Ulytau vs FC Astana · H/A from ULY

Date	H/A	Game	Score
17/08/25	A	FC Astana Vs ULY	4-0
18/05/25	H	ULY Vs FC Astana	0-2

Ulytau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	H	ULY Vs Irtysh	1-2
26/10/25	H	ULY Vs FK Tobol Kostanay	2-2
18/10/25	H	ULY Vs Kaisar	1-1
27/09/25	H	ULY Vs Atyrau	1-5
20/09/25	H	ULY Vs Aktobe	2-1
13/09/25	A	Turan Turkistan Vs ULY	1-1
24/08/25	H	ULY Vs Ordabasy	2-1
17/08/25	A	FC Astana Vs ULY	4-0
09/08/25	H	ULY Vs Kyzyl-Zhar	1-1
02/08/25	A	Kairat Almaty Vs ULY	1-0

FC Astana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/07/26	H	FA Vs Altay (Kazakhstan)	4-1
26/10/25	A	Kairat Almaty Vs FA	1-1
19/10/25	H	FA Vs Aktobe	5-3
28/09/25	A	Okzhetpes Vs FA	1-2
19/09/25	A	FK Tobol Kostanay Vs FA	2-3
14/09/25	H	FA Vs Yelimay Semey	3-3
28/08/25	H	FA Vs Kaisar	5-1
23/08/25	A	Zhenys Vs FA	3-2
17/08/25	H	FA Vs Ulytau	4-0
14/08/25	H	FA Vs Lausanne	0-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Ulytau

Kazakhstan: Premier League

Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLDDL	1.54
Home	WLDDL	1.68
Away	LLLLD	1.40

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	44%	48%	40%
AVG goals	2.94	3.20	2.68
Over 1.5 %	84%	92%	76%
Over 2.5 %	56%	64%	48%
Over 3.5 %	30%	36%	24%
Scored	1.66	1.88	1.44
Conceded	1.28	1.32	1.24
BTTS	58%	72%	44%
Clean Sheet	22%	16%	28%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

FC Astana

Kazakhstan: Premier League

Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWWDW	2.00
Home	WWDWW	2.24
Away	LLWWD	1.76

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	60%	68%	52%
AVG goals	3.20	4.08	2.32
Over 1.5 %	86%	96%	76%
Over 2.5 %	50%	76%	24%
Over 3.5 %	34%	52%	16%
Scored	2.12	2.84	1.40
Conceded	1.08	1.24	0.92
BTTS	52%	64%	40%
Clean Sheet	36%	32%	40%
Corners	8.62	8.25	9.00
Cards	5.43	5.00	6.00

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Ordabasy	5	12	80%	2.4	13	4	+9	3.4	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	3	3	4	2.6	0.8	-
2	FC Astana	4	10	75%	2.5	9	3	+6	3.0	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	1	2	4	2.2	0.8	-
3	Aktobe	5	10	60%	2.0	10	8	+2	3.6	100%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	5	2	3	2.0	1.6	-
4	Kairat Almaty	3	9	100%	3.0	8	3	+5	3.7	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	3	2	3	2.7	1.0	-
5	Kyzyl-Zhar	4	8	50%	2.0	8	5	+3	3.2	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.2	-
6	Okzhetpes	4	6	50%	1.5	8	5	+3	3.2	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.2	-
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	3	6	67%	2.0	3	2	+1	1.7	67%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	11	4	3	4	1.0	0.7	-
8	Kaspiy	5	6	20%	1.2	9	9	+0	3.6	100%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	-
9	Yelimay Semey	5	6	20%	1.2	7	7	+0	2.8	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.4	-
10	Irtysh	4	6	50%	1.5	6	8	-2	3.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	2.0	-
11	Zhenys	3	4	33%	1.3	6	4	+2	3.3	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.3	-
12	Kaisar	3	2	0%	0.7	3	4	-1	2.3	100%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.3	-
13	Atyrau	5	2	0%	0.4	3	8	-5	2.2	80%	20%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.6	-
14	Ulytau	4	1	0%	0.2	3	8	-5	2.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.0	-
15	Zhetysu	4	1	0%	0.2	3	11	-8	3.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.8	-
16	Altay (Kazakhstan)	5	1	0%	0.2	7	17	-10	4.8	100%	100%	100%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	3.4	-

Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches

Ulytau vs FC Astana Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ulytau

FC Astana

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ulytau

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

FC Astana

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Ulytau

FC Astana

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Ulytau

FC Astana

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature