This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.10
2.13
0.60
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.00
1.78
0.44
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
1.22
3.00
1.00
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Umeå FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.9%
Under 2.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.6%
Under 3.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
0-2
9.9%
1-2 ✓
9.9%
0-1
9.7%
0-0
6.9%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
6.1%
2-1
5.3%
Umeå FC goals ↓
Vasteras SK FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
9.7%
9.9%
6.1%
2.8%
1
4.8%
12%
9.9%
6.1%
2.8%
2
2.9%
5.3%
4.9%
3.0%
1.4%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Umeå FC goals (down), columns = Vasteras SK FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vasteras SK FK
2.17
Kalmar FF
2.13
Norrby IF
2.00
Orgryte IS
1.87
Oddevold
1.60
Falkenbergs FF
1.53
Hammarby Talang
1.50
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.43
Sandviken
1.37
Landskrona BoIS
1.37
IK brage
1.37
Helsingborg
1.37
GIF Sundsvall
1.33
Ostersunds FK
1.20
Utsikten
0.97
Orebro SK
0.78
Trelleborg
0.73
Umeå FC
0.63
Umeå FC is 1.53 points worse than Vasteras SK FK in terms of average points per game (0.63 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vasteras SK FK
2.07
Norrby IF
2.00
Orgryte IS
1.90
Falkenbergs FF
1.77
Kalmar FF
1.73
IK brage
1.70
Utsikten
1.53
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.50
Oddevold
1.40
Helsingborg
1.40
Landskrona BoIS
1.30
Orebro SK
1.25
Sandviken
1.20
GIF Sundsvall
1.20
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Umeå FC
1.00
Trelleborg
0.77
Hammarby Talang
0.50
Umeå FC is 1.07 goals worse than Vasteras SK FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hammarby Talang
0.50
Kalmar FF
0.70
Vasteras SK FK
1.00
Orgryte IS
1.10
Falkenbergs FF
1.20
Oddevold
1.20
GIF Sundsvall
1.27
Helsingborg
1.30
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.40
Norrby IF
1.50
Sandviken
1.57
Landskrona BoIS
1.57
Ostersunds FK
1.70
IK brage
1.70
Trelleborg
1.70
Orebro SK
1.72
Utsikten
1.78
Umeå FC
1.90
Umeå FC is 0.90 goals worse than Vasteras SK FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.90 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby Talang
64%
Landskrona BoIS
63%
Sandviken
56%
Ostersunds FK
56%
Kalmar FF
53%
Vasteras SK FK
53%
Orebro SK
52%
IK brage
52%
GIF Sundsvall
48%
Trelleborg
48%
Helsingborg
48%
Utsikten
47%
Orgryte IS
47%
Varbergs BoIS FC
46%
Umeå FC
44%
Oddevold
44%
Norrby IF
42%
Falkenbergs FF
41%
Umeå FC is 8.6 percentage points worse than Vasteras SK FK in terms of average possession (44% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Umeå FC
For 5.2 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasteras SK FK
For 4.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 14.7 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Umeå FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
10.3
9.5
12.0
2.2
3.3
1.4
27.6
27.4
28.0
vs Stronger (17)
11.1
10.4
12.0
2.5
3.1
2.0
28.7
29.2
28.0
vs Similar (7)
8.0
8.0
-
1.6
3.7
0.0
24.3
24.3
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
25%
75%
38%
55%
23%
83%
88%
75%
% under line
58%
75%
25%
62%
45%
77%
17%
12%
25%
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.6
10.8
2.3
2.0
2.7
23.5
23.1
23.8
vs Stronger (3)
9.5
9.5
-
1.0
1.5
0.0
24.5
24.5
-
vs Similar (37)
11.0
10.8
11.2
2.4
1.9
2.8
22.8
21.6
23.7
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
10.5
8.7
2.6
2.4
2.8
27.0
30.5
24.7
% over line
63%
56%
68%
30%
24%
36%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
37%
44%
32%
70%
76%
64%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Umeå FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Orgryte IS
11.1
Trelleborg
10.7
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.7
Vasteras SK FK
10.5
Helsingborg
10.5
Umeå FC
10.3
GIF Sundsvall
10.3
Utsikten
10.3
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.1
Ostersunds FK
10.1
Orebro SK
10.0
Norrby IF
9.9
Kalmar FF
9.8
Sandviken
9.7
Oddevold
9.1
Falkenbergs FF
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Utsikten
5.0
Umeå FC
4.5
Norrby IF
4.3
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Orebro SK
3.9
Ostersunds FK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
Orgryte IS
3.6
IK brage
3.6
Trelleborg
3.5
Sandviken
3.5
Falkenbergs FF
3.4
Vasteras SK FK
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.2
Oddevold
3.2
Kalmar FF
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Utsikten
28.2
Umeå FC
27.6
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.9
Trelleborg
25.2
Ostersunds FK
25.1
Norrby IF
24.6
IK brage
24.4
Falkenbergs FF
23.9
Helsingborg
23.9
Landskrona BoIS
23.8
Sandviken
23.8
Vasteras SK FK
23.7
Orebro SK
23.5
Kalmar FF
23.1
Orgryte IS
21.8
GIF Sundsvall
21.2
Oddevold
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Umeå FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.29
0.88
0.36
0.82
0.23
0.92
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
1.00
0.38
1.12
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.47
0.78
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.40
0.80
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Umeå FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Umeå FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Umeå FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Umeå FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Umeå FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
1.12
0.27
0.91
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.94
0.38
0.88
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.57
0.00
1.00
0.75
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.20
0.13
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.53
1.00
0.11
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.60
0.20
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Umeå FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Umeå FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Umeå FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Umeå FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Umeå FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eythor Bjørgolfsson43%
Hugo Lundqvist33%
Jørgen Voilås14%
Emmanuel Yeboah11%
Mikael Harbosen Haga8%
Ludvig Ohman0%
Stefan Lindmark0%
Jakob Hedenquist0%
Linus Marklund0%
Maximilian Dejene0%
Daniel Persson0%
Tobias Westin0%
Pontus Eriksson0%
David Ekman0%
Alfredo Martiatu Nordeman0%
Melker Uppenberg0%
Elias Cederblad0%
Tim Olsson0%
Djoseph Bangala0%
Lukas Vikgren0%
Joel Hedstrom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ludvig Ohman50%
Maximilian Dejene33%
Stefan Lindmark25%
Jakob Hedenquist25%
Linus Marklund25%
Daniel Persson25%
Mikael Harbosen Haga25%
Alfredo Martiatu Nordeman23%
Joel Hedstrom18%
Tobias Westin17%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson14%
Emmanuel Yeboah11%
Lukas Vikgren11%
Pontus Eriksson10%
Djoseph Bangala8%
Jørgen Voilås0%
Hugo Lundqvist0%
David Ekman0%
Melker Uppenberg0%
Elias Cederblad0%
Tim Olsson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lukas Vikgren33%
Daniel Persson17%
Linus Marklund12%
Stefan Lindmark8%
Mikael Harbosen Haga8%
Ludvig Ohman0%
Jørgen Voilås0%
Emmanuel Yeboah0%
Jakob Hedenquist0%
Maximilian Dejene0%
Hugo Lundqvist0%
Tobias Westin0%
Pontus Eriksson0%
David Ekman0%
Alfredo Martiatu Nordeman0%
Melker Uppenberg0%
Elias Cederblad0%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson0%
Tim Olsson0%
Djoseph Bangala0%
Joel Hedstrom0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eythor Bjørgolfsson36%
Lukas Vikgren11%
Mikael Harbosen Haga8%
Ludvig Ohman0%
Jørgen Voilås0%
Stefan Lindmark0%
Emmanuel Yeboah0%
Jakob Hedenquist0%
Linus Marklund0%
Maximilian Dejene0%
Daniel Persson0%
Hugo Lundqvist0%
Tobias Westin0%
Pontus Eriksson0%
David Ekman0%
Alfredo Martiatu Nordeman0%
Melker Uppenberg0%
Elias Cederblad0%
Tim Olsson0%
Djoseph Bangala0%
Joel Hedstrom0%
Vasteras SK FK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jabir Abdihakim Ali67%
Mikkel Ladefoged67%
Aaron Bibout50%
Simon Gefvert25%
Alexander Warneryd23%
Taonsa Axel23%
Mamadou Diagne20%
Jens Magnusson14%
Jonathan Ring13%
Julius Johansson8%
Max Larsson8%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva7%
Karl Gunnarsson7%
Anton Fagerström0%
Simon Johansson0%
Pedro Ribeiro0%
Victor Wernersson0%
Hugo Engstrom0%
Elijah Dixon-Bonner0%
Bernardo Vilar0%
Herman Magnusson0%
Tim Hartzell0%
Liiban Abdirahman Abadid0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mamadou Diagne50%
Max Larsson33%
Simon Johansson25%
Elijah Dixon-Bonner25%
Aaron Bibout20%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva14%
Jonathan Ring13%
Karl Gunnarsson13%
Liiban Abdirahman Abadid12%
Pedro Ribeiro10%
Bernardo Vilar9%
Tim Hartzell9%
Alexander Warneryd8%
Anton Fagerström0%
Victor Wernersson0%
Hugo Engstrom0%
Simon Gefvert0%
Julius Johansson0%
Herman Magnusson0%
Jabir Abdihakim Ali0%
Jens Magnusson0%
Mikkel Ladefoged0%
Taonsa Axel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Warneryd31%
Victor Wernersson15%
Taonsa Axel15%
Jens Magnusson14%
Jonathan Ring13%
Julius Johansson8%
Karl Gunnarsson7%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva0%
Anton Fagerström0%
Simon Johansson0%
Pedro Ribeiro0%
Hugo Engstrom0%
Elijah Dixon-Bonner0%
Simon Gefvert0%
Bernardo Vilar0%
Herman Magnusson0%
Tim Hartzell0%
Jabir Abdihakim Ali0%
Max Larsson0%
Mikkel Ladefoged0%
Mamadou Diagne0%
Liiban Abdirahman Abadid0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aaron Bibout40%
Jabir Abdihakim Ali33%
Mikkel Ladefoged33%
Liiban Abdirahman Abadid12%
Mamadou Diagne10%
Julius Johansson8%
Max Larsson8%
Alexander Warneryd8%
Taonsa Axel8%
Jens Magnusson7%
Jonathan Ring7%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva0%
Anton Fagerström0%
Simon Johansson0%
Pedro Ribeiro0%
Victor Wernersson0%
Hugo Engstrom0%
Elijah Dixon-Bonner0%
Simon Gefvert0%
Bernardo Vilar0%
Herman Magnusson0%
Tim Hartzell0%
Karl Gunnarsson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Sweden: Superettan 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
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Kalmar FF
Orgryte IS
Oddevold
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Helsingborg
IK brage
Landskrona BoIS
Sandviken
GIF Sundsvall
Ostersunds FK
Utsikten
Orebro SK
Trelleborg
Norrby IF
Hammarby Talang