Miedz Legnica is the favourite to win this match, with a recent-form storyline emerging from their away performance against Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, where they suffered a 0-1 defeat. However, their away scoring and conceding statistics against weaker opponents suggest they may struggle to find the net. Unia Skierniewice, on the other hand, have shown resilience at home, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 1.0 against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 56% chance of an away win, a 25% chance of a draw, and an 19% chance of a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.9%.
The model's selection is the away win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, having an 78.1% probability. Unia Skierniewice's home win percentage is 19%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 56%.
Results analysis
The win extends Unia Skierniewice's losing streak to four games, coming off a defeat in their previous match against Miedz Legnica. Meanwhile, Miedz Legnica's recent form has been more consistent, having won their last match against Unia Skierniewice. The final score was 0-3 in favour of Miedz Legnica, resulting in an away win. The model correctly predicted the away win, which was the pre-match favourite with a 56% probability. The model's selection, the away win, was correct.
The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.1%, as the final score was indeed 0-3.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Unia Skierniewice win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied 35.7% · @ 2.54
Edge
-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.63
Betano
2.62
Unibet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.51
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.83
Dafabet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Miedz Legnica win✓ Hit
56.0%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.36
Edge
+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.44
Dafabet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Unia Skierniewice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.43
1.17
1.17
1.00
3.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.17
1.17
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Miedz Legnica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.72
1.22
1.17
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.21
1.71
1.14
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.25
1.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
@ 1.16-2.2%
Under 1.5
21.9%
@ 4.71+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.98
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.55-6.5%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 2.30+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.71
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
@ 2.36-8.5%
Under 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.53+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
BetVictor
1.54
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.45-9.8%
No
46.4%
@ 2.52+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
No
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.52
888Sport
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.69+5.3%
0-2
10.0%@ 13.63+6.8%
0-1
9.9%@ 10.87+5.8%
1-2
9.9%@ 8.55+4.7%
0-0
7.1%@ 14.99+4.2%
0-3 ✓
6.1%@ 23.76+4.2%
1-3
6.0%@ 15.01+3.0%
2-1
5.3%@ 8.82+0.3%
Unia Skierniewice goals ↓
Miedz Legnica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
9.9%
10%
6.1%
2.8%
1
4.9%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.7%
2
2.9%
5.3%
4.9%
2.9%
1.3%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Unia Skierniewice goals (down), columns = Miedz Legnica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Unia Skierniewice is 1.17 points worse than Miedz Legnica in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Unia Skierniewice is 0.83 goals worse than Miedz Legnica in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Unia Skierniewice is 1.00 goals worse than Miedz Legnica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Unia Skierniewice or Draw✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Unia Skierniewice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice or Miedz Legnica✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Unia Skierniewice + Miedz Legnica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Miedz Legnica✓ Hit
81.0%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Draw + Miedz Legnica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Unia Skierniewice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.43
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.43
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Miedz Legnica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.83
0.78
0.25
0.58
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Unia Skierniewice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
3.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Miedz Legnica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
0.89
0.44
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.54
0.86
0.43
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Draw or Away
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.16
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Miedz Legnica · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Chuca20%
Luciano Narsingh17%
Maciej Śliwa12%
Kamil Drygas12%
Giannis Masouras7%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Nemanja Mijušković7%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi7%
Andrzej Niewulis7%
Dawid Drachal6%
Santiago Naveda6%
Olaf Kobacki4%
Maxime Dominguez3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Michael Kostka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carlos Julio Martínez50%
Maxime Dominguez34%
Jens Martin Gammelby33%
Nemanja Mijušković32%
Damian Tront30%
Levent Gülen30%
Kamil Drygas29%
Ángelo Henríquez28%
Jon Aurtenetxe25%
Jurich Carolina22%
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Szymon Matuszek21%
Olaf Kobacki21%
Andrzej Niewulis20%
Dawid Drachal19%
Hubert Matynia18%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi17%
Giannis Masouras14%
Santiago Naveda12%
Michael Kostka11%
Jerónimo Cacciabue9%
Kamil Zapolnik8%
Luciano Narsingh7%
Chuca7%
Mateusz Abramowicz5%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Jens Martin Gammelby17%
Olaf Kobacki17%
Maxime Dominguez14%
Hubert Matynia14%
Damian Tront10%
Carlos Julio Martínez8%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Jurich Carolina4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Ángelo Henríquez3%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Kamil Drygas0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Chuca0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Michael Kostka0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Kamil Drygas18%
Olaf Kobacki8%
Giannis Masouras7%
Chuca7%
Levent Gülen4%
Michael Kostka4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Szymon Matuszek0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Maxime Dominguez0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's squad is €4m less valuable than Miedz Legnica's (€0m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's attack is €1m less valuable than Miedz Legnica's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's midfield is €1m less valuable than Miedz Legnica's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's defence is €1m less valuable than Miedz Legnica's (€0m vs €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów