Unia Skierniewice, still rattled after a 0-1 loss to Stal Rzeszów, face Nieciecza, who have returned from a 2-2 draw with Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The model sees a clear favourite in the away side, rating an 73% chance of victory. This preference stems from Nieciecza’s strong away form, scoring an average of two goals while conceding only one against weaker opponents, versus Unia’s home record of 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 0-2 for the visitors at 10.4%. The model picks an away win and expects 3 goals on average. Home win probability sits at 10%, draw at 17%, and away win at 73%. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 7.5 (97.5%), Away +2 handicap (96.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.9%), Under 6.5 (93.8%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.4%), Draw or Away (90.0%), and Away +1 handicap (90.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Unia Skierniewice win
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza win
72.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Unia Skierniewice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.40
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nieciecza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.83
1.27
1.53
1.53
2.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.35
2.05
1.36
1.64
1.33
2.56
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-3
8.8%
1-1
8.0%
1-3
7.9%
0-1
7.4%
0-4
5.6%
1-4
5.0%
Unia Skierniewice goals ↓
Nieciecza goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
7.4%
10%
8.8%
5.6%
1
2.1%
8.0%
9.3%
7.9%
5.0%
2
1.3%
3.3%
4.2%
3.5%
2.3%
3
0.4%
1.0%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Unia Skierniewice goals (down), columns = Nieciecza goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Unia Skierniewice is 0.17 points worse than Nieciecza in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Unia Skierniewice is 0.67 goals worse than Nieciecza in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Unia Skierniewice is 0.17 goals better than Nieciecza in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Unia Skierniewice or Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
10%
17%
72%
covers Unia Skierniewice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice or Nieciecza
82.7%
Avg Implied -
10%
17%
72%
covers Unia Skierniewice + Nieciecza
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nieciecza
89.7%
Avg Implied -
10%
17%
72%
covers Draw + Nieciecza
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5
Over
92.2%
Under
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 1.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 2.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 3.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Unia Skierniewice, so a minus line means Unia Skierniewice give that many goals of a start and Nieciecza receive them. At -1, Unia Skierniewice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Unia Skierniewice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice -2
0.8%
Draw -2
2.6%
Nieciecza +2
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice -1
3.4%
Draw -1
6.9%
Nieciecza +1
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice +1
27.5%
Draw +1
21.0%
Nieciecza -1
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice +2
48.5%
Draw +2
20.9%
Nieciecza -2
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Unia Skierniewice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.40
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nieciecza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.53
0.67
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.00
0.55
0.55
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Unia Skierniewice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.00
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nieciecza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.73
0.87
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.29
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.05
0.82
1.09
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nieciecza · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kamil Zapolnik23%
Ivan Durdov19%
Rafał Kurzawa17%
Jesús Jiménez16%
Krzysztof Kubica16%
Damian Hilbrycht15%
Morgan Fassbender10%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz7%
Artem Putivtsev6%
Sergio Guerrero4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Isik Gabriel3%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Putivtsev33%
Krzysztof Kubica28%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz21%
Bartosz Kopacz21%
Rafał Kurzawa21%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz21%
Dominik Biniek20%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Damian Hilbrycht18%
Miłosz Matysik18%
Maciej Wolski16%
Sergio Guerrero14%
Isik Gabriel14%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Wojciech Jakubik9%
Lucas Masoero5%
Radu Boboc4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Jesús Jiménez3%
Ivan Durdov0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Morgan Fassbender0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Damian Hilbrycht12%
Radu Boboc7%
Sergio Guerrero7%
Jesús Jiménez6%
Ivan Durdov6%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz6%
Lucas Masoero5%
Maciej Wolski5%
Wojciech Jakubik4%
Krzysztof Kubica4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz3%
Isik Gabriel3%
Morgan Fassbender3%
Rafał Kurzawa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Andrzej Trubeha0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krzysztof Kubica24%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Morgan Fassbender14%
Ivan Durdov12%
Bartosz Kopacz11%
Isik Gabriel7%
Andrzej Trubeha5%
Rafał Kurzawa4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Damian Hilbrycht3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz0%
Jesús Jiménez0%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's squad is €3m less valuable than Nieciecza's (€0m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's attack is €2m less valuable than Nieciecza's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's midfield is €1m less valuable than Nieciecza's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →