Unia Skierniewice face a clear outsider in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, whose recent unbeaten run of five games ends with a 2-2 draw, is favoured to win, a 62% chance that the model assigns to an away victory. The model’s pick is an away win, reflecting Pogoń’s strong away form of 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, versus Unia’s 1.0 scored and 1.67 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 0-2 for Pogoń, a 10.8% probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 15%, 23% and 62% respectively. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away +2 handicap (94.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.5%), Under 5.5 (92.2%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.9%) and Away under 3.5 goals (85.2%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Unia Skierniewice win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Unia Skierniewice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.40
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.36
1.50
1.25
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.56
1.38
1.54
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.9%
0-1
11.3%
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-3
7.6%
0-0
7.4%
1-3
6.3%
1-0
4.2%
Unia Skierniewice goals ↓
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
11%
12%
7.6%
3.7%
1
4.2%
11%
9.8%
6.3%
3.0%
2
2.2%
4.2%
4.0%
2.6%
1.2%
3
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Unia Skierniewice goals (down), columns = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Odra Opole
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Unia Skierniewice is 1.00 points worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Unia Skierniewice is 0.83 goals worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Unia Skierniewice is 0.67 goals worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Unia Skierniewice or Draw
37.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
23%
62%
covers Unia Skierniewice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
76.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
23%
62%
covers Unia Skierniewice + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
85.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
23%
62%
covers Draw + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5
Over
85.5%
Under
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 3.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Unia Skierniewice, so a minus line means Unia Skierniewice give that many goals of a start and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki receive them. At -1, Unia Skierniewice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Unia Skierniewice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice -2
1.1%
Draw -2
3.6%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +2
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice -1
4.6%
Draw -1
9.7%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +1
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice +1
37.7%
Draw +1
24.0%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -1
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Unia Skierniewice)
Unia Skierniewice +2
61.7%
Draw +2
19.5%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -2
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Unia Skierniewice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.40
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.54
0.54
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.5%
Under 0.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.4%
Under 1.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Unia Skierniewice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.00
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.81
0.85
1.00
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Unia Skierniewice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.6%
Under 0.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
Under 2.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Unia Skierniewice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's squad is €2m less valuable than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice's midfield is €1m less valuable than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Unia Skierniewice and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar defence value (both €0m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
US wins
0
Draws
0
PGM wins
Head-to-head
Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · H/A from US
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →