União de Leiria vs Feirense Result & Analysis

União de Leiria is the clear favourite, with a 46 % chance of victory, a 27 % chance of a draw and a 27 % chance of Feirense winning. The model expects 2.8 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9 %. The home side, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded, while Feirense away averages 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 94.5 % (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 90.0 %, Over 3.5 cards at 86.2 % (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 82.8 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.4 %, Over 1.5 goals at 77.9 % (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 73.7 %, and Over 4.5 cards at 73.5 % (miss). The match is expected to be a close affair, with the home side’s recent win suggesting a slight edge, yet both teams have shown similar offensive and defensive outputs.

The match ended 2-2, a draw that surprised the pre-match favourite, the home side, which the model had picked to win with a 46 % chance. The prediction was therefore wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, but the model’s call did not. The model’s selections were: Over 2.5 cards hit at 94.5 %; Over 3.5 cards missed at 86.2 %; Over 1.5 hit at 77.9 %; Over 4.5 cards missed at 73.5 %. The home team, coming off a win, had a recent form of WLLDL, while the away side, after two straight defeats, had a form of LLDDL. The game’s 2-2 finish was the most likely score, with a 12.9 % probability.