The encounter between União de Leiria and Tondela is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win chances sit at 36 % and 37 % respectively, while a draw is 28 %. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total goal count being two, a 25 % probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.2 % chance.
União de Leiria, playing at home, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded against similarly ranked opposition. Tondela, on the road, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded versus the same tier. Recent form shows União coming off a win, whereas Tondela is after two straight defeats.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 %, Under 6.5 at 97.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.9 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.6 %.
Results analysis
União de Leiria continued their two-game winning run, beating Tondela 2-0 as the model predicted a home victory with a 37% probability. The predicted result came through, confirming the model’s pick. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.9%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.6%. Each hit matched the final score, with no selection missed. The match reinforced the model’s reliability in both outcome and total-goals predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
União de Leiria win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.20
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.29
Dafabet
2.26
William Hil
2.25
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.21
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.32
Dafabet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Tondela win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.10
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Betano
3.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
União de Leiria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
1.69
1.62
1.59
1.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.55
1.48
1.69
1.62
1.44
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.50
0.76
1.24
0.92
1.85
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.17
1.33
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.21
1.20
1.10
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.31+6.9%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 3.19-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 2.00+5.8%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.75-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.06
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 3.47+3.7%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.26-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.63
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.77+5.4%
No
42.4%
@ 1.93-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
No
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.83+5.7%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.28+3.1%
1-2
8.2%@ 10.32+4.0%
1-0
7.5%@ 6.87+1.1%
0-0
7.4%@ 8.66+2.3%
0-1
7.3%@ 8.41+2.1%
2-0 ✓
6.1%@ 9.80+1.7%
0-2
5.8%@ 14.51+2.8%
União de Leiria goals ↓
Tondela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.3%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.5%
13%
8.2%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.1%
8.4%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.9%
4.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = União de Leiria goals (down), columns = Tondela goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
União de Leiria is 0.12 points better than Tondela in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
União de Leiria is 0.36 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
União de Leiria is 0.19 goals worse than Tondela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
União de Leiria
For 4.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 30.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
For 4.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
União de Leiria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.9
11.0
4.3
4.2
4.4
25.1
22.0
30.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.8
8.9
11.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
26.1
23.4
30.1
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
1.7
1.5
2.0
5.0
5.0
-
% over line
56%
56%
57%
60%
52%
67%
76%
69%
88%
% under line
44%
44%
43%
40%
48%
33%
24%
31%
12%
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.6
4.1
5.2
25.7
24.9
26.5
vs Stronger (16)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.6
4.9
4.1
25.5
25.9
25.1
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.0
9.9
4.8
3.9
5.6
25.8
24.2
27.1
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
53%
50%
58%
58%
58%
80%
80%
81%
% under line
49%
47%
50%
42%
42%
42%
20%
20%
19%
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
AVS
25.7
Tondela
25.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
União de Leiria
23.1
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.2%
@ 2.08-1.4%
Under 9.5
56.8%
@ 1.67+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.60
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
83.0%
Under 3.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.3%
Under 21.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
União de Leiria or Draw✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.32
Edge
-5.7%
37%
28%
35%
covers União de Leiria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
União de Leiria or Tondela✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.2%
37%
28%
35%
covers União de Leiria + Tondela
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
Draw or Tondela✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.61
Edge
+5.6%
37%
28%
35%
covers Draw + Tondela
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.67
SBO
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.5%
@ 1.25+1.1%
Under
24.5%
@ 3.62-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
União de Leiria over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 2.22-0.7%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.59+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.29
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
União de Leiria over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.98-1.9%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.14+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
União de Leiria over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 11.19-3.0%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Tondela over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.6%
@ 1.38+7.5%
Under
25.4%
@ 2.83-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.80
Tondela over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.9%
@ 2.88+7.7%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.37-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Tondela over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 7.30+3.3%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.06-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Tondela over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 17.50-0.4%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to União de Leiria, so a minus line means União de Leiria give that many goals of a start and Tondela receive them. At -1, União de Leiria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal União de Leiria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (União de Leiria)Actual: Draw
União de Leiria -2
6.5%
@ 9.22-3.0%
Draw -2
11.2%
@ 5.86-3.8%
Tondela +2
82.3%
@ 1.17+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
8.70
Marathonbet
6.20
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap -1 (União de Leiria)Actual: União de Leiria
União de Leiria -1
17.7%
@ 4.06-4.0%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 3.69-4.7%
Tondela +1
63.1%
@ 1.62+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (União de Leiria)Actual: União de Leiria
União de Leiria +1
64.7%
@ 1.31-2.7%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 4.59-0.5%
Tondela -1
16.7%
@ 6.57+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.24
Draw
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Superbet
6.40
Unibet
5.60
Handicap +2 (União de Leiria)Actual: União de Leiria
União de Leiria +2
83.3%
@ 1.09-1.2%
Draw +2
10.6%
@ 9.15+0.6%
Tondela -2
6.0%
@ 17.00+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.30
Away
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
União de Leiria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.00
0.62
0.94
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.97
0.59
1.00
0.62
0.94
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.41
0.53
0.38
0.54
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.70
0.60
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.2%
@ 1.40+2.0%
Under 0.5
31.8%
@ 2.73-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Under
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Superbet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.90-0.0%
Under 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.37+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 7.44-1.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.06+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.9%
@ 2.00-2.7%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.74+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 6.21-3.9%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.09+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.92-3.3%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Tondela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.5%
@ 2.33-0.4%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.54+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Tondela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 8.16-1.6%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Tondela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 28.00-1.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
10Bet
26.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
União de Leiria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.69
1.00
0.65
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.90
0.69
1.00
0.50
0.81
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.35
0.71
0.54
1.31
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.50
0.17
1.00
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.68
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.24+0.7%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.59-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.2%
@ 2.19-3.3%
Under 1.5
60.8%
@ 1.62+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.6%
@ 4.84-3.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
@ 1.15+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Superbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.3%
@ 1.70-5.2%
Under
50.7%
@ 2.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 4.42-7.1%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.17+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 11.50-5.8%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Tondela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.7%
@ 1.95+1.0%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.77-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Tondela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 5.79-1.1%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.10+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Tondela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 17.08-2.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.09
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.1%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.12
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.9%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+3.4%
-
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.30
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
1.38
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
+0.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
União de Leiria · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Muñoz33%
Victor Rofino33%
Pablo Fernández29%
Jordan van der Gaag20%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes17%
Jair da Silva17%
Dieu-Merci Michel14%
João Silva12%
Daniel Borges12%
José Pedro10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Maga0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
Genaro0%
Marc Baró0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Borges50%
Maga45%
Marc Baró36%
Victor Rofino33%
Jair da Silva33%
Dieu-Merci Michel29%
Marcelo25%
Albert Lottin20%
José Pedro20%
Miguel Pires18%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes17%
Genaro14%
Pablo Fernández14%
Jordan van der Gaag10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Juan Muñoz0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan van der Gaag20%
Pablo Fernández20%
Marc Baró18%
Juan Muñoz17%
Dieu-Merci Michel14%
Daniel Borges12%
Lucho Vega10%
Maga9%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Genaro0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
José Pedro0%
Victor Rofino0%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Jair da Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Muñoz58%
Jair da Silva50%
Dieu-Merci Michel43%
Daniel Borges12%
Jordan van der Gaag10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Maga0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Genaro0%
Marc Baró0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
José Pedro0%
Victor Rofino0%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Tondela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Pedro Henryque15%
Bebeto12%
Emmanuel Maviram10%
João Silva8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Cicero6%
Makan Aïko6%
Rodrigo Conceição5%
Jordan Siebatcheu5%
Sphephelo Sithole4%
Joe Hodge4%
Tiago Manso4%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Hugo Félix0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rémy Vita50%
Brayan Medina36%
Cicero33%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka30%
Tiago Manso25%
Miro25%
João Afonso23%
Sphephelo Sithole23%
Pedro Henryque21%
Rodrigo Conceição20%
Emmanuel Maviram20%
Christian Marques19%
Rony Lopes19%
Bebeto17%
Afonso Rodrigues14%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Joe Hodge12%
Makan Aïko11%
Juan Rodríguez10%
João Silva8%
Moudjatovic8%
Ivan Cavaleiro8%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Bernardo Fontes6%
Hélder Tavares5%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
André Ceitil0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Yarlen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Makan Aïko11%
Rony Lopes6%
Pedro Henryque6%
Cicero6%
Emmanuel Maviram5%
Brayan Medina4%
Joe Hodge4%
Hugo Félix4%
Tiago Manso4%
Jordan Siebatcheu0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Yefrei Rodriguez0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Henryque30%
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Makan Aïko6%
Juan Rodríguez3%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Cicero0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Joe Hodge0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
União de Leiria and Tondela have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
União de Leiria's attack is €1m more valuable than Tondela's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
União de Leiria and Tondela have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
União de Leiria's defence is €2m less valuable than Tondela's (€4m vs €6m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves