Union Berlin, fresh from a 3-3 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt, will host FC Schalke 04, who return after a 0-3 loss to FC Augsburg. The model points to a Union Berlin win as the most likely outcome, with a 52% chance of a home victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of a Schalke win. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a modestly high-scoring game, yet the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.5% probability. Union’s home form shows 1.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Schalke’s away record is 1.33 scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%), Home +2 handicap (95.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.9%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.6%). Each pick carries its own probability, with edges ranging from 3% to 13%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Union Berlin win
51.7%
Avg Implied 45.6% · @ 2.06
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Dafabet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.05
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.68
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.78
Pinnacle
3.77
Unibet
3.75
FC Schalke 04 win
22.2%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.25
Edge
-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
Pinnacle
3.36
Betano
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Union Berlin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.67
1.67
1.60
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.14
1.50
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.52
1.73
1.64
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
1.79
0.79
1.25
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.46
1.04
1.62
0.77
1.33
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.15-3.4%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 4.90+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Under
Unibet
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.54-8.4%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 2.40+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Under
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 2.38-9.7%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.59+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Both teams to score
Yes
54.7%
@ 1.48-8.4%
No
45.3%
@ 2.53+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
No
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 7.03+5.9%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.23+4.1%
1-0
9.6%@ 9.81+4.9%
2-0
9.2%@ 11.60+5.2%
0-0
7.4%@ 15.66+4.4%
1-2
6.0%@ 10.54+1.6%
3-1
5.6%@ 12.84+2.0%
0-1
5.5%@ 12.48+1.8%
Union Berlin goals ↓
FC Schalke 04 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.5%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.6%
12%
6.0%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.7%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.3%
5.6%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.4%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Union Berlin goals (down), columns = FC Schalke 04 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Union Berlin is 0.15 points better than FC Schalke 04 in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Union Berlin is 0.15 goals better than FC Schalke 04 in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Union Berlin is 0.41 goals better than FC Schalke 04 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Union Berlin
For 4.9 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 8.5 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Schalke 04
For 3.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.6 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.6
3.8
4.2
3.4
21.7
22.6
20.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.7
11.0
10.5
3.1
4.2
2.3
19.8
20.0
19.7
vs Similar (38)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.1
4.2
3.8
22.3
23.2
21.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
52%
50%
50%
60%
40%
41%
44%
38%
% under line
49%
48%
50%
50%
40%
60%
59%
56%
62%
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
4.4
3.9
4.8
23.7
23.6
23.8
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
9.6
9.4
9.9
4.5
4.2
4.6
23.9
24.1
23.7
vs Weaker (7)
10.3
9.5
11.3
4.6
3.2
6.3
22.4
21.0
24.3
% over line
45%
42%
48%
64%
60%
68%
65%
62%
68%
% under line
55%
58%
52%
36%
40%
32%
35%
38%
32%
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.6%
@ 1.75-4.0%
Under 9.5
51.4%
@ 1.94+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Under
Unibet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.6%
Under 3.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
40.4%
Under 21.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Union Berlin or Draw
86.1%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.33
Edge
+15.0%
52%
26%
22%
covers Union Berlin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Union Berlin or FC Schalke 04
77.2%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
+2.3%
52%
26%
22%
covers Union Berlin + FC Schalke 04
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Draw or FC Schalke 04
36.8%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.74
Edge
-17.3%
52%
26%
22%
covers Draw + FC Schalke 04
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
@ 1.13+3.9%
Under
13.9%
@ 5.22-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Union Berlin over/under 1.5
Over
58.7%
@ 1.75+5.1%
Under
41.3%
@ 2.02-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Union Berlin over/under 2.5
Over
31.6%
@ 3.32+3.6%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.29-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.39
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
10Bet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Union Berlin over/under 3.5
Over
13.8%
@ 7.22+0.9%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.07-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
FC Schalke 04 over/under 0.5
Over
56.3%
@ 1.25-17.7%
Under
43.7%
@ 3.57+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.64
Betano
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
FC Schalke 04 over/under 1.5
Over
20.1%
@ 2.30-20.6%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.58+20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
FC Schalke 04 over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
@ 5.27-12.5%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.13+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.20
Unibet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
FC Schalke 04 over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
@ 12.33-6.7%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Union Berlin, so a minus line means Union Berlin give that many goals of a start and FC Schalke 04 receive them. At -1, Union Berlin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Union Berlin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Union Berlin)
Union Berlin -2
19.6%
@ 7.12+7.1%
Draw -2
19.7%
@ 5.75+4.2%
FC Schalke 04 +2
60.6%
@ 1.25-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.20
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (Union Berlin)
Union Berlin -1
39.4%
@ 3.52+13.6%
Draw -1
23.8%
@ 4.01+1.2%
FC Schalke 04 +1
36.8%
@ 1.76-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.25
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.79
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Handicap +1 (Union Berlin)
Union Berlin +1
86.1%
@ 1.32+17.7%
Draw +1
9.4%
@ 5.15-8.1%
FC Schalke 04 -1
4.5%
@ 6.40-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
6.75
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Handicap +2 (Union Berlin)
Union Berlin +2
95.5%
@ 1.09+12.2%
Draw +2
3.5%
@ 8.75-6.9%
FC Schalke 04 -2
1.0%
@ 14.25-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
Unibet
14.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.60
0.73
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.78
0.64
0.82
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.14
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.43
0.77
0.15
0.80
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.9%
@ 1.27-1.7%
Under 0.5
28.1%
@ 3.54+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
@ 2.26-8.6%
Under 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.61+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Betano
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 5.12-3.0%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.14+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.20
Betano
5.10
Under
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.2%
@ 1.69-4.8%
Under
49.8%
@ 2.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.6%
@ 4.51-6.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.16+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.4%
@ 10.00-3.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
FC Schalke 04 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.1%
@ 2.04-4.5%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.71+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
Unibet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
FC Schalke 04 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
@ 6.30-4.3%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
1xBet
6.00
Under
1xBet
1.11
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
FC Schalke 04 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
@ 12.00-5.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.07
0.87
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.74
1.09
0.82
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.93
0.64
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.61
0.85
0.62
0.53
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.15+1.0%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 5.01-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.2%
@ 1.74-1.7%
Under 1.5
47.8%
@ 2.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.5%
@ 3.30-3.7%
Under 2.5
75.5%
@ 1.30+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
William Hil
3.30
Unibet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.1%
@ 1.49-2.9%
Under
39.9%
@ 2.52+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Under
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.8%
@ 3.23-0.9%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.30+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.0%
@ 8.00+0.4%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.04-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
FC Schalke 04 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.0%
@ 1.70-11.6%
Under
57.0%
@ 2.05+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
FC Schalke 04 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.4%
@ 4.46-8.4%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.17+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
FC Schalke 04 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 9.75-6.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
Home +2 handicap
95.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.07
-
+12.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+12.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 5.5
93.5%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
+5.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.09
1xBet
1.11
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-0.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+8.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
86.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-0.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+3.9%
Home or Draw
86.1%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+15.0%
Home +1 handicap
86.1%
1.32
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.29
+17.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+6.0%
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.19
+7.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+3.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.0%
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
-3.4%
Home or Away
77.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.25
+2.3%
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.30
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+3.7%
Under 23.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
1.36
Unibet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.2%
1.30
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+0.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-1.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Union Berlin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Skov25%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Rani Khedira17%
Woo-Yeong Jeong16%
Andrej Ilić15%
Oliver Burke13%
Ilyas Ansah11%
Danilho Doekhi11%
Josip Juranović9%
Tom Rothe8%
Stanley N'Soki7%
András Schäfer6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Derrick Köhn3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Livan Burcu26%
Christopher Trimmel26%
Janik Haberer26%
Rani Khedira20%
Andrej Ilić18%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Derrick Köhn17%
Diogo Leite16%
Aljoscha Kemlein16%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke13%
András Schäfer10%
Josip Juranović9%
Frederik Rønnow6%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Alex Král5%
Tom Rothe4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Robert Skov0%
Tim Skarke0%
Carl Klaus0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dmytro Bogdanov33%
Andrej Ilić24%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Christopher Trimmel13%
Josip Juranović9%
Derrick Köhn7%
Oliver Burke6%
Janik Haberer6%
Aljoscha Kemlein6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong3%
András Schäfer3%
Rani Khedira3%
Ilyas Ansah3%
Danilho Doekhi3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Carl Klaus0%
Leopold Querfeld0%
Tom Rothe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić29%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke10%
Leopold Querfeld9%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tom Rothe4%
Derrick Köhn3%
András Schäfer3%
Stanley N'Soki0%
Diogo Leite0%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Josip Juranović0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Tim Skarke0%
Rani Khedira0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
FC Schalke 04 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Edin Džeko45%
Kenan Karaman35%
Bryan Lasme23%
Adil Aouchiche21%
Dejan Ljubičić20%
Moussa Sylla19%
Hasan Kuruçay12%
Vitalie Becker9%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei7%
Soufian El-Faouzi6%
Finn Porath5%
Christian Gomis5%
Nikola Katić4%
Amin Younes0%
Loris Karius0%
Kevin Müller0%
Anton Donkor0%
Janik Bachmann0%
Ron Schallenberg0%
Timo Becker0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Adrian Gantenbein0%
Emil Højlund0%
Peter Remmert0%
Mertcan Ayhan0%
Max Grüger0%
Felipe Sánchez0%
Paul Friedrich Pöpperl0%
Mika Wallentowitz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitalie Becker32%
Nikola Katić25%
Adrian Gantenbein24%
Adil Aouchiche21%
Mertcan Ayhan21%
Dejan Ljubičić20%
Emil Højlund20%
Hasan Kuruçay19%
Amin Younes17%
Max Grüger17%
Finn Porath16%
Timo Becker15%
Kenan Karaman15%
Moussa Ndiaye14%
Ron Schallenberg12%
Soufian El-Faouzi11%
Felipe Sánchez11%
Christian Gomis11%
Loris Karius10%
Janik Bachmann8%
Mika Wallentowitz8%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei7%
Moussa Sylla3%
Edin Džeko0%
Bryan Lasme0%
Kevin Müller0%
Anton Donkor0%
Peter Remmert0%
Paul Friedrich Pöpperl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Peter Remmert25%
Edin Džeko18%
Kenan Karaman15%
Adil Aouchiche14%
Moussa Ndiaye14%
Soufian El-Faouzi14%
Dejan Ljubičić13%
Mika Wallentowitz8%
Nikola Katić7%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei7%
Moussa Sylla6%
Finn Porath5%
Christian Gomis5%
Vitalie Becker5%
Timo Becker4%
Ron Schallenberg3%
Amin Younes0%
Loris Karius0%
Bryan Lasme0%
Kevin Müller0%
Anton Donkor0%
Janik Bachmann0%
Hasan Kuruçay0%
Adrian Gantenbein0%
Emil Højlund0%
Mertcan Ayhan0%
Max Grüger0%
Felipe Sánchez0%
Paul Friedrich Pöpperl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edin Džeko64%
Moussa Sylla47%
Adil Aouchiche29%
Kenan Karaman24%
Dejan Ljubičić20%
Bryan Lasme15%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei7%
Soufian El-Faouzi6%
Christian Gomis5%
Timo Becker4%
Nikola Katić4%
Amin Younes0%
Loris Karius0%
Kevin Müller0%
Anton Donkor0%
Janik Bachmann0%
Finn Porath0%
Hasan Kuruçay0%
Ron Schallenberg0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Adrian Gantenbein0%
Emil Højlund0%
Peter Remmert0%
Mertcan Ayhan0%
Vitalie Becker0%
Max Grüger0%
Felipe Sánchez0%
Paul Friedrich Pöpperl0%
Mika Wallentowitz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Union Berlin's squad is €56m more valuable than FC Schalke 04's (€123m vs €67m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Union Berlin's attack is €30m more valuable than FC Schalke 04's (€46m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Union Berlin's midfield is €2m more valuable than FC Schalke 04's (€26m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Union Berlin's defence is €24m more valuable than FC Schalke 04's (€50m vs €26m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart