This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.33
1.27
0.93
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.11
1.20
0.80
1.22
1.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
1.73
1.40
1.20
0.67
2.17
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
Union Berlin goals ↓
FC St. Pauli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
5.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.7%
5.7%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Union Berlin goals (down), columns = FC St. Pauli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Union Berlin is 0.24 points better than FC St. Pauli in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Union Berlin is 0.24 goals better than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Union Berlin is 0.59 goals better than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Union Berlin
For 5.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
For 3.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.1
2.6
2.8
2.4
28.6
29.8
27.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
10.7
10.7
10.7
2.9
3.2
2.6
29.8
28.3
31.0
vs Weaker (30)
9.5
9.3
9.6
2.4
2.6
2.2
27.9
30.5
25.0
% over line
56%
50%
61%
36%
44%
28%
92%
94%
89%
% under line
44%
50%
39%
64%
56%
72%
8%
6%
11%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
9.9
2.9
3.1
2.7
25.5
27.4
23.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
10.1
9.7
10.5
2.6
2.8
2.5
23.9
25.4
22.3
vs Weaker (17)
9.5
10.2
8.8
3.4
3.8
3.1
28.8
31.3
26.3
% over line
44%
50%
39%
42%
48%
36%
81%
89%
72%
% under line
56%
50%
61%
58%
52%
64%
19%
11%
28%
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
15.0
Hamburger SV
10.8
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Arminia Bielefeld
10.2
1. FC Heidenheim
10.2
Ingolstadt
10.0
Holstein Kiel
10.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.0
1. FC Köln
9.9
Union Berlin
9.9
Regensburg
9.9
FC St. Pauli
9.9
VfL Bochum
9.8
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
Erzgebirge Aue
9.3
SV Sandhausen
9.1
Duisburg
8.6
1. FC Magdeburg
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.7
Regensburg
5.1
Holstein Kiel
4.7
1. FC Heidenheim
4.5
VfL Bochum
4.4
Erzgebirge Aue
4.3
Duisburg
4.2
SV Sandhausen
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
Dynamo Dresden
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3.9
Hamburger SV
3.9
1. FC Köln
3.8
Union Berlin
3.6
Arminia Bielefeld
3.5
1. FC Magdeburg
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
31.8
SV Sandhausen
31.7
Ingolstadt
30.6
SC Paderborn 07
30.3
1. FC Heidenheim
29.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
29.3
Erzgebirge Aue
28.9
Union Berlin
28.6
Holstein Kiel
28.5
VfL Bochum
28.3
Hamburger SV
28.0
Duisburg
28.0
SV Darmstadt 98
27.7
1. FC Köln
27.6
Dynamo Dresden
27.6
1. FC Magdeburg
27.0
FC St. Pauli
25.5
Arminia Bielefeld
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.9%
Under 9.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.5%
Under 21.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.73
0.13
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.20
0.40
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.35
1.00
0.00
0.30
0.70
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.73
1.00
0.60
0.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
0.93
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
0.60
1.40
0.40
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.85
0.70
1.00
0.90
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.53
0.70
0.30
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Union Berlin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Skov25%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Rani Khedira17%
Woo-Yeong Jeong16%
Andrej Ilić15%
Oliver Burke13%
Ilyas Ansah11%
Danilho Doekhi11%
Josip Juranović9%
Tom Rothe8%
Stanley N'Soki7%
András Schäfer6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Derrick Köhn3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Livan Burcu26%
Christopher Trimmel26%
Janik Haberer26%
Rani Khedira20%
Andrej Ilić18%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Derrick Köhn17%
Diogo Leite16%
Aljoscha Kemlein16%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke13%
András Schäfer10%
Josip Juranović9%
Frederik Rønnow6%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Alex Král5%
Tom Rothe4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Robert Skov0%
Tim Skarke0%
Carl Klaus0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dmytro Bogdanov33%
Andrej Ilić24%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Christopher Trimmel13%
Josip Juranović9%
Derrick Köhn7%
Oliver Burke6%
Janik Haberer6%
Aljoscha Kemlein6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong3%
András Schäfer3%
Rani Khedira3%
Ilyas Ansah3%
Danilho Doekhi3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Carl Klaus0%
Leopold Querfeld0%
Tom Rothe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić29%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke10%
Leopold Querfeld9%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tom Rothe4%
Derrick Köhn3%
András Schäfer3%
Stanley N'Soki0%
Diogo Leite0%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Josip Juranović0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Tim Skarke0%
Rani Khedira0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
FC St. Pauli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Union Berlin's squad is €77m more valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€123m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Union Berlin's attack is €37m more valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€46m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Union Berlin's midfield is €11m more valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€26m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Union Berlin's defence is €29m more valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€50m vs €21m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Sandhausen
Ingolstadt
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg