Univer Comrat, riding a win after a 6-1 thrashing of Spartanii Selemet, looks poised to extend its momentum at home against Zimbru II, who are still reeling from four consecutive defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a 21% chance of a draw and a 32% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 4.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1, a 7.3% probability.
Univer’s home form shows an average of 2.36 goals scored and 2.18 conceded against weaker opposition, while Zimbru II, playing away against stronger teams, averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (93.5%), Under 7.5 (92.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.7%), Away over 0.5 goals (85.7%), Under 6.5 (85.5%), Home +2 handicap (82.9%) and Over 2.5 (80.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Univer Comrat win
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II win
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Univer Comrat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.18
1.93
2.06
1.94
2.33
1.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.89
1.40
1.40
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.63
1.95
2.36
2.18
3.00
1.62
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.81
1.86
1.36
1.85
2.31
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.38
2.00
0.80
2.00
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.5%
Under 1.5
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
80.3%
Under 2.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
62.4%
Under 3.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
78.2%
No
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.1%
1-1
6.8%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
5.6%
2-3
4.6%
1-3
3.9%
Univer Comrat goals ↓
Zimbru II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
2.0%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
1
2.6%
6.8%
6.0%
3.9%
1.9%
2
3.8%
7.3%
7.1%
4.6%
2.2%
3
3.0%
5.8%
5.6%
3.6%
1.8%
4
1.7%
3.4%
3.3%
2.1%
1.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Univer Comrat goals (down), columns = Zimbru II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Univer Comrat is 0.09 points better than Zimbru II in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Univer Comrat is 0.14 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Univer Comrat is 0.09 goals worse than Zimbru II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Univer Comrat or Draw
68.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
21%
32%
covers Univer Comrat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat or Zimbru II
79.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
21%
32%
covers Univer Comrat + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zimbru II
52.7%
Avg Implied -
47%
21%
32%
covers Draw + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5
Over
90.5%
Under
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5
Over
68.2%
Under
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 3.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Univer Comrat, so a minus line means Univer Comrat give that many goals of a start and Zimbru II receive them. At -1, Univer Comrat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Univer Comrat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Univer Comrat)
Univer Comrat -2
15.0%
Draw -2
14.0%
Zimbru II +2
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Univer Comrat)
Univer Comrat -1
29.1%
Draw -1
18.2%
Zimbru II +1
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Univer Comrat)
Univer Comrat +1
68.0%
Draw +1
14.9%
Zimbru II -1
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Univer Comrat)
Univer Comrat +2
82.9%
Draw +2
9.6%
Zimbru II -2
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Univer Comrat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.92
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.89
1.60
0.80
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.40
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Univer Comrat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
1.00
1.07
1.20
1.42
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.20
0.80
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.33
1.06
1.00
1.40
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.93
1.07
0.79
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti