Ural, coming off a win, hosts FC UFA on August 8th in the Russia: First League. The home side's recent form has been marked by a 3-0 win over Ska-khabarovsk, but their overall home form shows an impressive average of 2.33 goals scored and none conceded against weaker opponents.
FC UFA, meanwhile, has been in a mixed form, with a draw against KAMAZ preceded by three consecutive wins. Their away form is less impressive, with an average of 0.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 58% probability of Ural taking all three points. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-0 win for Ural, with a 16.1% probability.
The model suggests three selections: Under 9.5 corners (100% probability), Under 21.5 fouls (100% probability), and Under 3.5 total goals (82.2% probability), with a 6% edge for the latter. Home win percentage is 58%, draw percentage is 28%, and away win percentage is 15%.
The win extends Ural's run to 2 games, following a 3-0 victory over FC UFA. The final score was 3-0, confirming the actual result of a home win. The model correctly picked Ural to win, with a pre-match probability of 58%. The predicted most likely total goals was 2, with a 28% probability. The model's selection of Ural to win came in, as did the selection of Under 3.5 goals, which hit with an 82.2% probability.
Ural| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.93 | 1.38 | 0.69 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 1.46 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.57 | 0.00 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
FC UFA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.09 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| FC UFA goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16% | 12% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Ural
FC UFA
Ural| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 26.8 | 24.0 | 29.5 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 3.0 | - | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 26.8 | 24.0 | 29.5 |
| vs Weaker (11) | - | - | - | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 34% | 35% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 66% | 65% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
FC UFA| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (14) | - | - | - | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (36) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.3 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 44% | 38% | 50% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 56% | 62% | 50% | - | - | - |
Ural| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
FC UFA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Ural| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
FC UFA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.29 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 82.2% | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | +5.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | - | - | - | +2.6% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/09/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/05/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/08/24 | A | 0-2 |
Ural| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-3 |
FC UFA| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |