Ural vs KAMAZ Result & Analysis

Ural’s defensive record at home - conceding only 0.8 goals on average against similarly ranked opponents - sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 53% chance, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 15%. The expected total is 1.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Ural, with a 19.2% probability. Ural’s home form shows 1.5 goals scored per game, while KAMAZ, on the road, averages only 0.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls (99.8%), Under 23.5 fouls (99.2%), Under 21.5 fouls (97.4%), Under 19.5 fouls (93.0%), Under 3.5 (88.5%) which has hit, Under 5.5 cards (82.1%) which missed, Under 11.5 corners (77.9%), and Over 2.5 cards (72.5%) which has hit.

Ural extended their unbeaten run in the last five matches with a 2-1 victory over KAMAZ, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win at 53%. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was correct. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5 goals, at 88.5%, hit; Under 5.5 cards, at 82.1%, missed; Over 2.5 cards, at 72.5%, hit. The final score of 2-1 matched the most likely 1-0 and 2-0 outcomes in the probability table, while the total goals of two fell within the expected 1.8 range. Overall, the model’s call and most selections performed well.