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Valbona vs Apolonia Fier Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
Valbona
Valbona
Vs
36%
32%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valbona win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier win✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ValbonaValbona

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D10W12L12L02LA·LUS23/05H·BES24/08A·BUR31/08H·ERZ11/09A·VOR16/09H·FK 22/09A·FLA28/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.290.671.330.251.25
vs Stronger (3)0.332.000.002.000.502.00
vs Similar (4)0.500.751.001.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L43W00D01L22D21W01L13L12LH·BES04/05A·BUR08/05A·VOR12/05A·FLA15/05A·VOR24/08H·KAS31/08A·FK 11/09H·LUS15/09A·FLA22/09H·BES28/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.201.531.070.731.33
vs Stronger (12)1.081.331.751.000.751.50
vs Similar (18)1.171.111.451.090.711.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valbona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
11.1%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.7%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
6.2%
Valbona goals ↓
Apolonia Fier goals →
01234
012%10%6.2%2.2%0.6%
111%15%7.2%2.6%0.7%
27.2%7.7%4.1%1.5%0.4%
32.8%3.0%1.6%0.6%0.2%
40.8%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valbona goals (down), columns = Apolonia Fier goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vora
2.30
Flamurtari
2.27
Besa Kavajë
2.14
Burreli
1.71
Pogradeci
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.33
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
FK Kukesi
0.91
Valbona
0.48
Erzeni Shijak
0.33
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Valbona is 0.87 points worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of average points per game (0.48 vs 1.35).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flamurtari
1.88
Vora
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.18
Korabi Peshkopi
1.06
Burreli
1.06
Kastrioti Krujë
1.06
Pogradeci
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.88
Valbona
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
0.48
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Valbona is 0.47 goals worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.57
Flamurtari
0.64
Burreli
0.68
Vora
0.73
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Luzi 2008
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
1.00
Lushnja
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.44
Korabi Peshkopi
1.45
FK Kukesi
1.65
Valbona
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.91
Valbona is 0.82 goals worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ValbonaValbona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D00D00D01L10W01LA·LUS23/05H·BES24/08A·BUR31/08H·ERZ11/09A·VOR16/09H·FK 22/09A·FLA28/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.140.430.330.000.000.75
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (4)0.250.250.500.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L00D01L22D10W01L01L11DH·BES04/05A·BUR08/05A·VOR12/05A·FLA15/05A·VOR24/08H·KAS31/08A·FK 11/09H·LUS15/09A·FLA22/09H·BES28/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.470.670.470.200.47
vs Stronger (12)0.330.500.750.250.120.62
vs Similar (18)0.500.440.640.550.290.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Valbona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valbona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ValbonaValbona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D10W11D02L01LA·LUS23/05H·BES24/08A·BUR31/08H·ERZ11/09A·VOR16/09H·FK 22/09A·FLA28/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.290.860.331.330.250.50
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.002.000.501.00
vs Similar (4)0.250.500.501.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L31W00D00D00D11D00D12L01LH·BES04/05A·BUR08/05A·VOR12/05A·FLA15/05A·VOR24/08H·KAS31/08A·FK 11/09H·LUS15/09A·FLA22/09H·BES28/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.870.600.530.87
vs Stronger (12)0.750.831.000.750.620.88
vs Similar (18)0.670.670.820.550.430.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Valbona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valbona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
VAL wins
0
Draws
0
AF wins

Head-to-head

Valbona vs Apolonia Fier · H/A from VAL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ValbonaValbona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24AFlamurtari Vs VAL2-0
22/09/24HVAL Vs FK Kukesi1-2
16/09/24AVora Vs VAL2-1
11/09/24HVAL Vs Erzeni Shijak1-0
31/08/24ABurreli Vs VAL0-0
24/08/24HVAL Vs Besa Kavajë0-2
23/05/23ALushnja Vs VAL1-0

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24HAF Vs Besa Kavajë1-2
22/09/24AFlamurtari Vs AF3-1
15/09/24HAF Vs Lushnja0-1
11/09/24AFK Kukesi Vs AF1-2
31/08/24HAF Vs Kastrioti Krujë2-2
24/08/24AVora Vs AF1-0
15/05/24AFlamurtari Vs AF0-0
12/05/24AVora Vs AF3-4
08/05/24ABurreli Vs AF2-1
04/05/24HAF Vs Besa Kavajë0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valbona
Valbona
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL0.57
HomeLWL1.00
AwayLDLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%33%0%
AVG goals1.712.001.50
Over 1.5 %57%67%50%
Over 2.5 %29%33%25%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.430.670.25
Conceded1.291.331.25
BTTS29%33%25%
Clean Sheet29%33%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.42
HomeWLDLL1.88
AwayWDLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%54%23%
AVG goals2.462.582.35
Over 1.5 %64%71%58%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.341.671.04
Conceded1.120.921.31
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet26%21%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VoraVora3376
73%
2.3
5524+31
2.4
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.70.7
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari3375
70%
2.3
6221+41
2.5
82%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.6
-
3Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3575
63%
2.1
5520+35
2.1
69%
37%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.60.6
-
4BurreliBurreli3458
47%
1.7
3623+13
1.7
53%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.7
-
5PogradeciPogradeci3555
46%
1.6
3535+0
2.0
54%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3446
32%
1.4
4633+13
2.3
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
7LushnjaLushnja3344
39%
1.3
3941-2
2.4
58%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
8Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3441
35%
1.2
3649-13
2.5
65%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.11.4
-
9Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3341
36%
1.2
3548-13
2.5
67%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3431
26%
0.9
3056-26
2.5
76%
56%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11ValbonaValbona3316
9%
0.5
2959-30
2.7
76%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
12Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3311
6%
0.3
1663-47
2.4
67%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
13Luzi 2008Luzi 200810
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
14OrikuOriku10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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