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Valbona vs Pogradeci Result & Analysis

Date: 25/01/2025
Time: 12:30
Final 2-3
Valbona
Valbona
Vs
38%
31%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valbona win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ValbonaValbona

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W12L04L11D34L11D01L00D24LH·KAS30/10A·LUS03/11A·BES10/11H·BUR24/11A·ERZ30/11H·VOR08/12A·FK 14/12H·FLA21/12A·APO11/01A·KOR20/01
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.450.671.670.731.27
vs Stronger (7)0.712.001.002.330.501.75
vs Similar (13)0.691.150.501.330.861.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L10W02L10W00D02L21W11D13L00DA·KOR30/10H·APO03/11A·KAS09/11H·LUS25/11A·BES02/12H·BUR09/12A·ERZ18/12H·VOR22/12A·FK 10/01H·FLA20/01
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.251.000.600.601.90
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.171.330.331.000.001.67
vs Weaker (14)1.071.211.290.430.862.00
Clean sheet %35% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valbona) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.9%
Valbona goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
01234
011%9.3%5.9%2.2%0.6%
111%14%7.2%2.7%0.7%
27.4%8.1%4.5%1.6%0.5%
33.0%3.3%1.8%0.7%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valbona goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vora
2.30
Flamurtari
2.27
Besa Kavajë
2.14
Burreli
1.71
Pogradeci
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.33
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
FK Kukesi
0.91
Valbona
0.48
Erzeni Shijak
0.33
Oriku
0.00
Luzi 2008
0.00
Valbona is 1.09 points worse than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (0.48 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flamurtari
1.88
Vora
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.18
Korabi Peshkopi
1.06
Burreli
1.06
Kastrioti Krujë
1.06
Pogradeci
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.88
Valbona
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
0.48
Oriku
0.00
Luzi 2008
0.00
Valbona is 0.12 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.57
Flamurtari
0.64
Burreli
0.68
Vora
0.73
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
1.00
Luzi 2008
1.00
Lushnja
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.44
Korabi Peshkopi
1.45
FK Kukesi
1.65
Valbona
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.91
Valbona is 0.79 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ValbonaValbona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W02L01L11D33D10W00D00D12LH·KAS30/10A·LUS03/11A·BES10/11H·BUR24/11A·ERZ30/11H·VOR08/12A·FK 14/12H·FLA21/12A·APO11/01A·KOR20/01
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.450.700.440.560.450.82
vs Stronger (7)0.431.141.001.000.001.25
vs Similar (13)0.460.460.170.330.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D10W00D00D21W00D02L00DA·KOR30/10H·APO03/11A·KAS09/11H·LUS25/11A·BES02/12H·BUR09/12A·ERZ18/12H·VOR22/12A·FK 10/01H·FLA20/01
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.350.400.100.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.000.330.000.330.000.33
vs Weaker (14)0.570.360.570.000.570.71
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Valbona) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valbona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ValbonaValbona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W03L00D01L01L01L00D12LH·KAS30/10A·LUS03/11A·BES10/11H·BUR24/11A·ERZ30/11H·VOR08/12A·FK 14/12H·FLA21/12A·APO11/01A·KOR20/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.750.221.110.270.45
vs Stronger (7)0.290.860.001.330.500.50
vs Similar (13)0.230.690.331.000.140.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W02L00D00D02L00D11D11D00DA·KOR30/10H·APO03/11A·KAS09/11H·LUS25/11A·BES02/12H·BUR09/12A·ERZ18/12H·VOR22/12A·FK 10/01H·FLA20/01
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.600.500.201.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.171.000.330.670.001.33
vs Weaker (14)0.500.860.710.430.291.29
Clean sheet %45% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valbona) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valbona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valbona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
VAL wins
0
Draws
1
POG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valbona vs Pogradeci · H/A from VAL
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24APogradeci Vs VAL1-0

ValbonaValbona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/01/25AKorabi Peshkopi Vs VAL4-2
11/01/25AApolonia Fier Vs VAL0-0
21/12/24HVAL Vs Flamurtari0-1
14/12/24AFK Kukesi Vs VAL1-1
08/12/24HVAL Vs Vora3-4
30/11/24AErzeni Shijak Vs VAL1-1
24/11/24HVAL Vs Burreli0-4
10/11/24ABesa Kavajë Vs VAL2-1
03/11/24ALushnja Vs VAL0-2
30/10/24HVAL Vs Kastrioti Krujë0-0

PogradeciPogradeci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/01/25HPOG Vs Flamurtari0-0
10/01/25AFK Kukesi Vs POG3-1
22/12/24HPOG Vs Vora1-1
18/12/24AErzeni Shijak Vs POG1-2
09/12/24HPOG Vs Burreli0-2
02/12/24ABesa Kavajë Vs POG0-0
25/11/24HPOG Vs Lushnja1-0
09/11/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs POG2-0
03/11/24HPOG Vs Apolonia Fier1-0
30/10/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs POG3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valbona
Valbona
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL0.60
HomeLDLLL0.56
AwayLDDDL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%11%9%
AVG goals2.152.332.00
Over 1.5 %60%56%64%
Over 2.5 %30%33%27%
Over 3.5 %15%22%9%
Scored0.700.670.73
Conceded1.451.671.27
BTTS40%33%45%
Clean Sheet25%22%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLD1.20
HomeWWLDD2.00
AwayLLDWL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%60%10%
AVG goals2.051.602.50
Over 1.5 %60%50%70%
Over 2.5 %35%10%60%
Over 3.5 %20%10%30%
Scored0.801.000.60
Conceded1.250.601.90
BTTS35%20%50%
Clean Sheet35%60%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VoraVora3376
73%
2.3
5524+31
2.4
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.70.7
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari3375
70%
2.3
6221+41
2.5
82%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.6
-
3Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3575
63%
2.1
5520+35
2.1
69%
37%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.60.6
-
4BurreliBurreli3458
47%
1.7
3623+13
1.7
53%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.7
-
5PogradeciPogradeci3555
46%
1.6
3535+0
2.0
54%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3446
32%
1.4
4633+13
2.3
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
7LushnjaLushnja3344
39%
1.3
3941-2
2.4
58%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
8Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3441
35%
1.2
3649-13
2.5
65%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.11.4
-
9Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3341
36%
1.2
3548-13
2.5
67%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3431
26%
0.9
3056-26
2.5
76%
56%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11ValbonaValbona3316
9%
0.5
2959-30
2.7
76%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
12Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3311
6%
0.3
1663-47
2.4
67%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
13Luzi 2008Luzi 200810
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
14OrikuOriku10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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