Barcelona are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 63% chance of a win, 22% for a draw and 15% for a Valencia victory. The 0-2 scoreline is the single most likely outcome, coming in at 10.8% probability, while the expected total of goals is 3.0, with 2.0 goals the most probable total. Valencia’s home form shows a modest 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded against stronger opposition, whereas Barcelona’s away form is robust, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 1.09 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 97.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.9%, Away +2 handicap at 93.7% and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.8%. Valencia’s recent form, two straight defeats, contrasts with Barcelona’s three-game winning streak, reinforcing the model’s confidence in an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valencia win
15.2%
Avg Implied 10.0% · @ 9.42
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
10.50
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.89
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.46
1xBet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.20
Dafabet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Barcelona win
62.2%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Dafabet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valencia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.33
1.33
1.25
1.25
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.00
3.12
0.75
1.86
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.33
1.67
0.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.79
0.92
3.46
0.77
2.00
1.09
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.2%
@ 1.09-5.6%
Under 1.5
19.8%
@ 6.54+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.36-12.5%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 3.02+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.0%
@ 1.96-14.8%
Under 3.5
66.0%
@ 1.86+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.08
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Both teams to score
Yes
53.0%
@ 1.67-2.9%
No
47.0%
@ 2.12+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
No
William Hil
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.8%@ 7.89+4.9%
1-1
10.8%@ 10.96+6.5%
1-2
9.9%@ 8.46+4.4%
0-1
9.7%@ 9.88+5.0%
0-3
7.3%@ 8.86+2.0%
1-3
6.7%@ 9.42+1.7%
0-0
6.3%@ 22.14+4.1%
2-2
4.5%@ 16.34+1.7%
Valencia goals ↓
Barcelona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
9.7%
11%
7.3%
3.7%
1
3.8%
11%
9.9%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.2%
4.5%
4.5%
3.1%
1.6%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valencia goals (down), columns = Barcelona goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Valencia is 1.18 points worse than Barcelona in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Valencia is 1.29 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Valencia is 0.50 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Valencia is 21.2 percentage points worse than Barcelona in terms of average possession (48% vs 69%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valencia
For 4.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
For 5.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valencia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.7
4.6
5.0
4.3
24.4
25.8
23.1
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
12.0
9.7
2.8
3.3
2.3
20.8
21.0
20.7
vs Similar (40)
9.3
9.3
9.4
4.8
5.2
4.5
24.9
26.5
23.2
vs Weaker (4)
11.7
-
11.7
4.8
-
4.8
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
45%
42%
48%
70%
71%
69%
63%
75%
52%
% under line
55%
58%
52%
30%
29%
31%
37%
25%
48%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.3
10.2
4.2
3.6
4.8
21.8
21.1
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
10.6
11.4
9.8
6.1
4.8
7.4
23.8
22.6
25.0
vs Weaker (40)
10.8
11.3
10.3
3.8
3.4
4.2
21.2
20.8
21.8
% over line
62%
60%
64%
52%
44%
60%
54%
48%
60%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
48%
56%
40%
46%
52%
40%
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.4%
@ 1.56-8.6%
Under 9.5
49.6%
@ 2.25+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Unibet
1.47
Under
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Pinnacle
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.5%
@ 1.75+15.5%
Under 3.5
30.5%
@ 2.05-15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.4%
Under 21.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valencia or Draw
37.7%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.59
Edge
+11.4%
15%
23%
62%
covers Valencia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Betano
3.70
Unibet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Valencia or Barcelona
77.5%
Avg Implied 84.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-6.9%
15%
23%
62%
covers Valencia + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw or Barcelona
84.7%
Avg Implied 89.2% · @ 1.06
Edge
-4.4%
15%
23%
62%
covers Draw + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.07
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valencia over/under 0.5
Over
60.4%
@ 1.57+1.2%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.28-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Valencia over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
@ 3.87-0.5%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.23+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
Pinnacle
3.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Valencia over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
@ 10.99-1.8%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Unibet
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Valencia over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
@ 23.50-2.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
@ 1.03-3.7%
Under
13.0%
@ 10.10+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Under
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.50
Barcelona over/under 1.5
Over
60.5%
@ 1.25-14.0%
Under
39.5%
@ 3.67+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.13
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
Barcelona over/under 2.5
Over
33.5%
@ 1.83-17.5%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.90+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Barcelona over/under 3.5
Over
15.1%
@ 3.16-14.5%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.33+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.16
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valencia, so a minus line means Valencia give that many goals of a start and Barcelona receive them. At -1, Valencia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valencia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valencia)
Valencia -2
1.3%
@ 56.00-0.4%
Draw -2
4.0%
@ 21.50-0.5%
Barcelona +2
94.7%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
51.00
Draw
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
20.00
Away
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Valencia)
Valencia -1
5.3%
@ 17.30+0.1%
Draw -1
10.0%
@ 9.39+0.3%
Barcelona +1
84.7%
@ 1.06-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Handicap +1 (Valencia)
Valencia +1
37.7%
@ 3.62+12.7%
Draw +1
23.1%
@ 4.08+0.9%
Barcelona -1
39.1%
@ 1.71-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.65
Handicap +2 (Valencia)
Valencia +2
60.9%
@ 2.01+16.1%
Draw +2
19.3%
@ 4.12-2.6%
Barcelona -2
19.8%
@ 2.70-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.07
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Away
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.64
Unibet
2.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valencia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.27
0.27
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.44
0.38
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.12
0.38
1.46
0.38
0.73
0.36
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.8%
@ 1.20-7.2%
Under 0.5
29.2%
@ 4.25+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.00-11.7%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.78+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.12
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.79
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 4.16-7.8%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.21+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.3%
@ 2.80-3.1%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.40+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.95
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.77
Marathonbet
2.76
10Bet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Valencia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
@ 10.20-2.3%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Valencia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
@ 15.00-5.5%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.6%
@ 1.36-14.8%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.96+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.9%
@ 2.70-10.5%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.42+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Under
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.8%
@ 6.33-8.8%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.08+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valencia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
1.00
1.07
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.92
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.47
1.69
0.38
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.67
0.54
2.00
0.38
1.27
0.73
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.10-4.9%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 6.14+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Under
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Betano
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.57-10.7%
Under 1.5
51.2%
@ 2.31+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Bet365
2.25
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.3%
@ 2.75-13.6%
Under 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.42+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Unibet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.4%
@ 2.23-2.3%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.60+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.27
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.56
Valencia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.9%
@ 7.14-3.1%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.60
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Valencia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.5%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.2%
@ 1.22-9.4%
Under
32.8%
@ 3.98+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.0%
@ 2.01-18.1%
Under
72.0%
@ 1.73+18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.0%
@ 4.13-12.4%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.19+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 7.5
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+6.2%
Away +2 handicap
94.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+0.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
+8.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+1.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Under 5.5
91.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
+8.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.06
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
+12.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
87.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-
-3.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.21
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
+7.8%
Over 2.5 cards
85.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
84.9%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+14.5%
Draw or Away
84.7%
1.06
BetVictor
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-4.4%
Away +1 handicap
84.7%
1.06
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
-0.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.0%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+12.6%
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-5.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.10
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.09
-4.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.42
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
+13.6%
Home or Away
77.5%
1.12
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-6.9%
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+0.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
1.42
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
+10.5%
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
1.47
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
+10.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.0%
1.73
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
-
+18.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-7.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valencia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Umar Sadiq33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mouctar Diakhaby67%
Stole Dimitrievski33%
Ryunosuke Sato33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnaut Danjuma33%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Raphinha100%
Fermín López67%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Lamine Yamal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavi Espart33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Raphinha0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Marc Bernal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Gordon67%
Xavi Espart67%
Raphinha33%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Pedri33%
Marc Bernal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Raphinha67%
Lamine Yamal67%
Anthony Gordon33%
Fermín López33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Valencia's squad is €1156m less valuable than Barcelona's (€125m vs €1282m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Valencia's attack is €550m less valuable than Barcelona's (€40m vs €590m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Valencia's midfield is €278m less valuable than Barcelona's (€46m vs €324m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Valencia's defence is €329m less valuable than Barcelona's (€39m vs €368m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga