This highly anticipated match between Valencia and Celta Vigo is finely balanced, with Valencia enjoying a 2-game winning run, including a 3-1 victory over Barcelona, while Celta Vigo is coming off a win against Sevilla. Valencia has a slight edge at home, with a 41% chance of winning, closely followed by a 30% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Celta Vigo winning. The model predicts a home win as the most likely result.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring in 13.9% of simulations. Valencia has scored an average of 1.55 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.18. Celta Vigo has averaged 1.1 goals away from home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.3.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (77.2%), Under 3.5 (75.2%), Over 1.5 (73.1% with a 5% edge), Home or Away (70.8%), and Over 3.5 cards (70.5%). Valencia has a 41% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Valencia’s unbeaten run in their last five fixtures ended in a goalless stalemate, while Celta Vigo, fresh from a draw, mirrored the result. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 43 %, yet the match finished 0-0, a draw that proved the model’s pick was wrong. The model’s selection of a home victory was therefore missed. All the suggested picks were settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.0 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.9 %, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.6 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure appears only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valencia win✗ Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.50
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.59
Pinnacle
2.56
Superbet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.14
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Celta Vigo win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 3.01
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.16
10Bet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valencia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.23
1.43
1.36
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.26
1.55
1.27
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
-
-
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.79
1.50
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.43
1.91
1.55
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.9%
@ 1.40+5.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
@ 2.86-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Under
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.92
10Bet
2.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.26+4.0%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.65-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
Betano
2.27
Under
1xBet
1.71
SBO
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 4.12+1.8%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.22-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.40
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.90+2.6%
No
48.2%
@ 1.84-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
No
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.66+5.8%
1-0
10.1%@ 6.69+3.3%
0-0 ✓
9.3%@ 7.78+3.5%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.10+3.9%
2-0
8.1%@ 10.63+3.8%
0-1
7.6%@ 7.72+1.7%
1-2
6.9%@ 10.40+2.6%
2-2
4.9%@ 14.31+1.7%
Valencia goals ↓
Celta Vigo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.6%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
8.9%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valencia goals (down), columns = Celta Vigo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Valencia is 0.13 points worse than Celta Vigo in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Valencia is 0.18 goals worse than Celta Vigo in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Valencia is 0.18 goals worse than Celta Vigo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Valencia is 2.8 percentage points worse than Celta Vigo in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valencia
For 4.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
For 3.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valencia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.7
4.5
5.0
4.2
24.2
25.1
23.4
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
12.0
9.7
2.8
3.3
2.3
20.8
21.0
20.7
vs Similar (40)
9.6
9.7
9.4
4.8
5.2
4.3
24.6
25.8
23.6
vs Weaker (4)
11.7
-
11.7
4.8
-
4.8
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
45%
43%
46%
68%
70%
67%
63%
74%
54%
% under line
55%
57%
54%
32%
30%
33%
37%
26%
46%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
7.7
8.3
4.5
4.7
4.3
24.7
23.7
25.5
vs Stronger (10)
7.9
8.0
7.8
5.7
6.0
5.4
22.7
20.2
25.2
vs Similar (37)
7.8
7.6
8.0
4.2
4.4
4.0
24.7
24.7
24.8
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
-
12.0
4.7
-
4.7
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
27%
23%
30%
62%
68%
57%
65%
64%
67%
% under line
73%
77%
70%
38%
32%
43%
35%
36%
33%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Racing Santander
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Espanyol
9.8
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Malaga
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Malaga
5.2
Sevilla
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Alaves
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.8
Real Betis
4.8
Levante
4.8
Elche
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Barcelona
4.4
Villarreal
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.7
Real Sociedad
26.6
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Espanyol
25.7
Athletic Club
25.4
Osasuna
25.3
Levante
24.8
Malaga
24.6
Celta Vigo
24.5
Villarreal
24.5
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
24.0
Real Betis
23.7
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.7%
@ 2.09-2.7%
Under 9.5
58.3%
@ 1.67+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.2%
@ 1.42+5.9%
Under 3.5
28.8%
@ 2.68-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.52
Unibet
2.50
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.5%
@ 1.41+13.6%
Under 21.5
21.5%
@ 2.60-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.60
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valencia or Draw✓ Hit
63.1%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.38
Edge
-5.4%
43%
29%
28%
covers Valencia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
SBO
1.40
Valencia or Celta Vigo✗ Miss
70.8%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.35
Edge
+0.7%
43%
29%
28%
covers Valencia + Celta Vigo
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw or Celta Vigo✓ Hit
66.0%
Avg Implied 61.4% · @ 1.54
Edge
+4.7%
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Celta Vigo
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.60
888Sport
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valencia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.3%
@ 1.33+0.9%
Under
28.7%
@ 3.15-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Valencia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 2.59-0.8%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.47+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.67
888Sport
2.63
BetVictor
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Valencia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 6.22-1.9%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.10+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.70
888Sport
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Valencia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 14.54-2.7%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
1xBet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.0%
@ 1.41+6.7%
Under
27.0%
@ 2.76-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.80
888Sport
2.75
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.6%
@ 2.99+6.3%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.36-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.26
Marathonbet
3.08
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 7.79+2.5%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.06-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Under
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Celta Vigo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 21.15-0.2%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.01+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
26.00
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valencia, so a minus line means Valencia give that many goals of a start and Celta Vigo receive them. At -1, Valencia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valencia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valencia)Actual: Celta Vigo
Valencia -2
5.1%
@ 11.28-2.8%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 6.70-3.3%
Celta Vigo +2
84.8%
@ 1.14+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.25
Away
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Valencia)Actual: Celta Vigo
Valencia -1
15.2%
@ 4.97-2.9%
Draw -1
18.8%
@ 3.86-4.6%
Celta Vigo +1
66.0%
@ 1.54+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.85
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Handicap +1 (Valencia)Actual: Valencia
Valencia +1
63.1%
@ 1.38-2.5%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 4.45-0.6%
Celta Vigo -1
17.1%
@ 6.45+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.35
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Valencia)Actual: Valencia
Valencia +2
82.9%
@ 1.07-1.1%
Draw +2
11.1%
@ 8.62+0.6%
Celta Vigo -2
6.0%
@ 16.25+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Away
Betfair
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valencia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.29
0.29
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
-
-
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.79
0.57
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.48+3.2%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 2.57-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.6%
@ 3.26+2.7%
Under 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.32-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.36
Betano
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 8.61-0.3%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
10.00
William Hil
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.60
Under
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.9%
@ 2.17+1.9%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.64-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Valencia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 6.89-2.9%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Valencia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 18.25-3.3%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.4%
@ 2.38+2.3%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.53-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.36
Under
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 8.20-1.6%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 21.75-2.5%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valencia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.14
1.07
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.78
1.18
0.91
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.00
0.93
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.83
1.18
0.91
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.3%
Under 1.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
Under 2.5
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.2%
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
-
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
1.22
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.5%
1.41
1xBet
1.41
-
-
-
-
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.22
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.9%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
+5.9%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.2%
1.42
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.37
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
1.35
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
1.39
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
+3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valencia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Umar Sadiq33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mouctar Diakhaby67%
Stole Dimitrievski33%
Ryunosuke Sato33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnaut Danjuma33%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Celta Vigo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Alonso33%
I. Radu25%
Sergio Carreira25%
Javi Rueda25%
Yoel Lago25%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
I. Moriba0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Valencia's squad is €38m less valuable than Celta Vigo's (€125m vs €163m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Valencia's attack is €17m less valuable than Celta Vigo's (€40m vs €57m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Valencia's midfield is €11m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€46m vs €35m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Valencia's defence is €32m less valuable than Celta Vigo's (€39m vs €71m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga