This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.07
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
0.00
2.00
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.30
0.86
1.00
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.44
1.43
0.14
1.22
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.9%
@ 2.07+4.8%
Under 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.77-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
0-0 ✓
7.9%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
Valencia goals ↓
Real Sociedad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
7.6%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.5%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.0%
3.9%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valencia goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.26
Barcelona
1.92
Atletico Madrid
1.87
Sevilla
1.84
Real Betis
1.71
Real Sociedad
1.63
Villarreal
1.55
Athletic Club
1.45
Valencia
1.26
Osasuna
1.24
Celta Vigo
1.21
Rayo Vallecano
1.11
Espanyol
1.11
Elche
1.11
Getafe
1.03
Cadiz
1.03
Mallorca
1.03
Granada CF
1.00
Levante
0.92
Alaves
0.82
Valencia is 0.37 points worse than Real Sociedad in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Real Madrid
2.11
Barcelona
1.79
Atletico Madrid
1.71
Villarreal
1.66
Real Betis
1.63
Sevilla
1.39
Levante
1.34
Valencia
1.26
Granada CF
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Celta Vigo
1.13
Real Sociedad
1.05
Espanyol
1.05
Elche
1.05
Rayo Vallecano
1.03
Osasuna
0.97
Mallorca
0.95
Cadiz
0.92
Getafe
0.87
Alaves
0.82
Valencia is 0.21 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sevilla
0.79
Real Madrid
0.82
Athletic Club
0.95
Real Sociedad
0.97
Villarreal
0.97
Barcelona
1.00
Real Betis
1.05
Getafe
1.08
Celta Vigo
1.13
Atletico Madrid
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Cadiz
1.34
Osasuna
1.34
Elche
1.37
Espanyol
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Granada CF
1.61
Mallorca
1.66
Alaves
1.71
Levante
2.00
Valencia is 0.42 goals worse than Real Sociedad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valencia
For 5.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.1 · Against 14.2 · Total 32.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
For 4.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valencia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.5
9.4
6.1
6.2
5.9
29.0
29.2
28.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.2
7.0
10.7
5.3
5.0
5.5
28.7
27.5
29.5
vs Similar (31)
9.1
9.7
8.4
6.7
7.2
6.1
30.5
31.1
29.7
vs Weaker (9)
10.7
11.7
10.2
4.8
2.3
6.0
24.4
20.7
26.3
% over line
44%
40%
48%
82%
84%
80%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
56%
60%
52%
18%
16%
20%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.2
8.4
4.8
5.3
4.3
27.4
27.7
27.1
vs Stronger (8)
8.4
7.3
9.0
3.8
4.3
3.4
26.2
26.7
26.0
vs Similar (16)
9.2
9.0
9.7
6.2
6.7
5.3
28.7
29.2
27.8
vs Weaker (26)
7.7
7.8
7.6
4.3
4.4
4.1
27.0
26.8
27.2
% over line
32%
32%
32%
68%
76%
60%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
68%
68%
68%
32%
24%
40%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Espanyol
10.4
Athletic Club
10.4
Cadiz
9.8
Real Madrid
9.5
Real Betis
9.4
Valencia
9.4
Atletico Madrid
9.4
Villarreal
9.3
Alaves
9.2
Levante
9.1
Rayo Vallecano
8.8
Elche
8.8
Barcelona
8.8
Granada CF
8.8
Mallorca
8.7
Sevilla
8.5
Real Sociedad
8.3
Getafe
8.2
Osasuna
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Valencia
6.1
Getafe
5.8
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Mallorca
5.5
Granada CF
5.5
Celta Vigo
5.3
Espanyol
5.1
Cadiz
4.9
Levante
4.9
Sevilla
4.8
Real Sociedad
4.8
Atletico Madrid
4.8
Real Betis
4.7
Elche
4.7
Alaves
4.5
Villarreal
4.5
Athletic Club
4.5
Barcelona
4.4
Osasuna
4.2
Real Madrid
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rayo Vallecano
30.8
Mallorca
29.4
Valencia
29.0
Getafe
28.9
Celta Vigo
28.2
Alaves
27.6
Real Sociedad
27.4
Granada CF
26.9
Elche
26.8
Espanyol
26.6
Real Betis
26.4
Barcelona
26.4
Levante
25.7
Atletico Madrid
25.6
Villarreal
25.3
Sevilla
25.3
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
24.7
Real Madrid
24.3
Cadiz
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.8%
Under 9.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.1%
Under 3.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.1%
Under 21.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valencia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.73
0.33
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.80
0.73
0.27
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.67
0.27
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.71
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.12
0.71
0.00
0.22
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valencia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.13
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.33
2.00
2.33
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
0.91
0.55
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.40
0.40
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.80
0.14
0.43
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.31
0.71
0.14
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valencia · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Umar Sadiq33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mouctar Diakhaby67%
Stole Dimitrievski33%
Ryunosuke Sato33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnaut Danjuma33%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Real Sociedad · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić33%
Ander Barrenetxea33%
Orri Óskarsson33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Zubeldia67%
Jon Aramburu67%
Sergio Gómez33%
Yangel Herrera33%
Beñat Turrientes33%
Carlos Soler0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Orri Óskarsson33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (26)
€48m
CAD (29)
€27m
GC (18)
€17m
Valencia's squad is €122m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€125m vs €247m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
CAD (12)
€11m
GC (5)
€6m
Valencia's attack is €70m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€40m vs €110m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
CAD (5)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
Valencia's midfield is €12m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€46m vs €58m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
CAD (12)
€12m
GC (10)
€9m
Valencia's defence is €40m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€39m vs €79m).
Spain: La Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Real Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Real Betis
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Osasuna
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Espanyol
Getafe
Cadiz
Mallorca
Granada CF
Levante
Alaves