Valencia vs Villarreal Result & Analysis

The clash between Valencia and Villarreal sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39% for Valencia, 31% for a draw and 30% for Villarreal, so the predicted outcome is a 1-0 victory for the hosts. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.5% chance. Valencia, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Villarreal on the road averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 82.8% (miss), Under 3.5 at 80.1%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.2%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 70.4% (miss). Valencia’s recent form shows a dip after two losses, while Villarreal is coming off a defeat, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.

The win extended Valencia’s recent run, turning a string of two straight defeats into a decisive victory. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 39%. Valencia finished 3-0, matching the actual result. The model’s selections performed largely as expected. “Over 19.5 fouls” hit with a 91.5% probability, “Over 2.5 cards” hit at 91.2%, “Under 3.5” hit at 80.1%, “Over 3.5 cards” hit at 80.0%, and “Over 8.5 corners” hit at 73.2%. “Over 21.5 fouls” missed at 82.8% and “Over 23.5 fouls” missed at 70.4%. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total was close, with the most likely score of 1-1 at 14.5%.