This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.93
1.21
2.21
1.12
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
2.19
1.00
2.20
1.09
2.18
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.00
2.33
1.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.3%
Under 3.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
7.4%
1-0
7.0%
3-0
6.7%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
4.7%
Valerenga goals ↓
Aalesund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.0%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.0%
9.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.8%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.7%
7.4%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valerenga goals (down), columns = Aalesund goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valerenga
2.30
Bryne
1.93
Moss
1.81
Lyn
1.52
Egersund
1.52
Kongsvinger
1.45
Stabaek
1.40
Raufoss
1.37
Aalesund
1.33
Ranheim
1.30
Asane
1.23
Start
1.17
Sogndal
1.13
Mjondalen
1.07
Levanger
0.97
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Valerenga is 0.97 points better than Aalesund in terms of average points per game (2.30 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valerenga
2.73
Stabaek
1.90
Egersund
1.87
Lyn
1.84
Moss
1.84
Bryne
1.67
Ranheim
1.60
Kongsvinger
1.58
Levanger
1.57
Asane
1.53
Start
1.50
Aalesund
1.50
Mjondalen
1.27
Sogndal
1.13
Raufoss
1.13
Sandnes ULF
0.87
Valerenga is 1.23 goals better than Aalesund in terms of goals scored per game (2.73 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
0.97
Valerenga
1.03
Raufoss
1.17
Lyn
1.32
Sogndal
1.33
Moss
1.39
Ranheim
1.53
Aalesund
1.63
Kongsvinger
1.67
Mjondalen
1.67
Levanger
1.70
Asane
1.73
Egersund
1.87
Start
1.90
Stabaek
1.97
Sandnes ULF
2.67
Valerenga is 0.60 goals better than Aalesund in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valerenga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.00
0.33
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.31
0.67
0.44
0.71
0.14
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.43
1.50
0.17
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
73% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.64
0.79
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.90
0.60
0.70
0.73
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valerenga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valerenga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valerenga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valerenga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.60
1.47
0.73
1.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.81
0.67
1.00
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (14)
2.21
0.36
2.67
0.33
1.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.57
1.43
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.38
1.29
0.40
1.50
0.36
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.33
1.00
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valerenga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valerenga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valerenga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valerenga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lucas Haren41%
Carl Lange33%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Filip Thorvaldsen17%
Elias Sørensen10%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Henrik Bjørdal6%
Ivan Näsberg6%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Kolbeinn Finnsson0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Ambina Fidèle Brice0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Ole Christian Saeter0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aaron Kiil Olsen31%
Kolbeinn Finnsson29%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Ambina Fidèle Brice21%
Ivan Näsberg19%
Carl Lange17%
Ole Christian Saeter17%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad14%
Sebastian Jarl14%
Henrik Bjørdal12%
Hakon Sjatil12%
Magnus Westergaard11%
Kevin Tshiembe10%
Elias Sørensen10%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Lucas Haren6%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Petter Strand0%
Mohamed Ofkir0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kolbeinn Finnsson29%
Henrik Bjørdal25%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Ole Christian Saeter17%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Filip Thorvaldsen8%
Ambina Fidèle Brice7%
Lucas Haren6%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Carl Lange6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Ivan Näsberg0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Grundetjern33%
Filip Thorvaldsen25%
Elias Sørensen20%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Henrik Bjørdal12%
Lucas Haren12%
Carl Lange11%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Kolbeinn Finnsson0%
Ivan Näsberg0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Ambina Fidèle Brice0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Ole Christian Saeter0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
Gabriel Rajkovic0%
Aalesund · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcus Haagensen Reed38%
Kristian Lonebu31%
Mathias Christensen29%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch29%
Henrik Melland21%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl11%
Ivan Djantou9%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen6%
Uba Charles6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Hakon Butli Hammer0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Marius Andresen0%
Ulrik Syversen0%
Simen Haram0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson36%
Mathias Christensen29%
Marius Andresen27%
Marcus Haagensen Reed25%
Aleksander Kjelsen23%
Kristoffer Klaesson18%
Emil Engqvist18%
Philip Sandvik Aukland17%
Henrik Melland14%
Ólafur Guðmundsson13%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen12%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl11%
Ulrik Syversen11%
Elias Heggland Myrlid8%
Simen Haram8%
Hakon Butli Hammer6%
Uba Charles6%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch6%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Luca Podlech0%
Ivan Djantou0%
Kristian Lonebu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch24%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl22%
Uba Charles18%
Hakon Butli Hammer12%
Marcus Haagensen Reed12%
Mathias Christensen12%
Ulrik Syversen11%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson9%
Marius Andresen9%
Ivan Djantou9%
Henrik Melland7%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen6%
Kristian Lonebu6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Simen Haram0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcus Haagensen Reed38%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson27%
Henrik Melland14%
Mathias Christensen12%
Marius Andresen9%
Kristian Lonebu6%
Uba Charles6%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen0%
Hakon Butli Hammer0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Ulrik Syversen0%
Simen Haram0%
Ivan Djantou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (22)
€16m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Valerenga's squad is €3m more valuable than Aalesund's (€16m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (7)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Valerenga and Aalesund have a similar attack value (both €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (6)
€5m
AAL (8)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Valerenga and Aalesund have a similar midfield value (both €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (9)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Valerenga's defence is €1m more valuable than Aalesund's (€5m vs €4m).
Norway: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bryne
Moss
Kongsvinger
Lyn
Egersund
Stabaek
Raufoss
Ranheim
Asane
Start
Sogndal
Mjondalen
Levanger
Sandnes ULF