In this high-scoring matchup, Valerenga's attacking prowess at home and Ham-Kam's defensive struggles away from home are key storylines. Valerenga has averaged 2.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home, while Ham-Kam has averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded away from home against stronger opponents.
Valerenga is heavily favored to win, with a 61% chance of a home win, followed by a 22% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of an away win. The model's selection is a home win.
A total of 3.3 goals are expected, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10% probability.
In terms of scoring against this opponent's strength tier, Valerenga has a strong home record, while Ham-Kam has struggled away from home.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 goals (84.5% probability) and Over 9.5 corners (71.3% probability), with an edge in the latter.
Valerenga has a 61% chance of winning, a 22% chance of drawing, and a 17% chance of losing. The model's selections are Over 1.5 goals (84.5%), Over 9.5 corners (71.3%), and Home win (61%).
The upset came early as Ham-Kam overturned a 0-3 defeat, ending their run of five matches with a win that echoed their recent form. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 61 % probability, yet the model’s pick was wrong. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the away triumph. The model’s selections delivered a mixed bag: Over 1.5 goals, hit at 84.5 %; Under 5.5 cards, hit at 80.7 %; Over 8.5 corners, missed at 79.0 %; Over 19.5 fouls, hit at 74.8 %; Over 2.5 cards, hit at 74.0 %; and Under 25.5 fouls, missed at 72.4 %. The match finished with a decisive away win, proving the model’s predictions were only partially accurate.
Valerenga| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.87 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 1.21 | 2.79 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.83 | 3.17 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 4.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.57 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 2.22 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.67 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Ham-Kam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.00 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 2.06 | 1.17 | 2.22 | 0.89 | 1.89 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Ham-Kam goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 10% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
Valerenga| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.7 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 23.9 | 23.0 | 24.9 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 12.5 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 25.2 | 23.0 | 27.5 |
| vs Similar (36) | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 23.7 | 22.8 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 11.8 | 18.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 23.2 | 24.0 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 70% | 81% | 59% | 48% | 44% | 52% | 65% | 57% | 73% |
| % under line | 30% | 19% | 41% | 52% | 56% | 48% | 35% | 43% | 27% |
Ham-Kam| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 22.9 | 23.4 | 22.5 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 10.9 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.4 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 23.9 | 24.8 | 23.1 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 57% | 55% | 59% | 30% | 26% | 33% | 55% | 64% | 45% |
| % under line | 43% | 45% | 41% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 45% | 36% | 55% |
Valerenga| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.94 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Ham-Kam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.57 | 1.20 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.58 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.11 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Valerenga| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.07 | 1.25 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 2.75 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 0.90 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Ham-Kam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.03 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.11 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.13 | +1.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 79.0% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.18 | - | +4.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/05/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/11/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/08/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/22 | H | 1-1 |
Valerenga| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 16/07/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-2 |
Ham-Kam| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 41 | 76% | 2.4 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 3.2 | 88% | 71% | 41% | 10.1 | 59% | 2.3 | 12% | 19.6 | 29% | 75 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 65% |
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 40 | 76% | 2.4 | 40 | 17 | +23 | 3.4 | 88% | 76% | 24% | 12.2 | 82% | 4.9 | 81% | 24.9 | 65% | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 34 | 59% | 2.0 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 3.2 | 82% | 53% | 47% | 9.6 | 41% | 2.8 | 33% | 23.1 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 27 | 47% | 1.6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 3.4 | 82% | 65% | 41% | 9.9 | 47% | 4.1 | 59% | 24.6 | 59% | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 59% |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 26 | 47% | 1.5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 2.6 | 88% | 47% | 29% | 10.5 | 65% | 4.6 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 6 | Brann | 17 | 25 | 47% | 1.5 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 3.7 | 94% | 88% | 47% | 11.9 | 71% | 3.8 | 65% | 24.1 | 65% | 25 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 59% |
| 7 | Rosenborg | 17 | 24 | 41% | 1.4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 2.8 | 94% | 53% | 24% | 12.4 | 71% | 4.0 | 62% | 26.3 | 76% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 17 | 23 | 41% | 1.4 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 2.6 | 76% | 53% | 29% | 9.9 | 65% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.5 | 59% | 15 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 22 | 35% | 1.3 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 2.5 | 71% | 53% | 18% | 10.3 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.7 | 59% | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 17 | 22 | 35% | 1.3 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 3.2 | 88% | 71% | 35% | 9.5 | 53% | 3.4 | 44% | 24.7 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 21 | 35% | 1.2 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 3.6 | 82% | 59% | 47% | 12.8 | 71% | 3.4 | 44% | 21.8 | 35% | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 17 | 19 | 29% | 1.1 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 2.7 | 82% | 53% | 29% | 9.1 | 59% | 3.8 | 59% | 21.9 | 47% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 17 | 18 | 29% | 1.1 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 2.2 | 65% | 47% | 18% | 12.2 | 88% | 3.8 | 56% | 24.7 | 76% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 17 | 15 | 24% | 0.9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 2.5 | 82% | 53% | 12% | 10.8 | 59% | 4.2 | 53% | 23.9 | 59% | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 15 | 12% | 0.9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 4.0 | 94% | 65% | 53% | 12.4 | 88% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.2 | 59% | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 43% |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 10 | 12% | 0.6 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 3.2 | 94% | 59% | 24% | 8.9 | 35% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.6 | 76% | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 42% |