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Valletta FC vs Balzan FC Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 14:15
Final 1-0
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Vs
18%
30%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valletta FC win✓ Hit
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC win✗ Miss
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D01L01L02L11D11D02L02L22DA·SIR28/01H·SLI03/02H·BIR09/02A·MOS17/02H·MAR25/02A·HAM02/03H·GZI10/03A·SAN16/03H·FLO06/04A·HIB14/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.000.601.131.400.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.741.040.601.130.920.92
vs Weaker (3)3.330.67--3.330.67
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-717L11D01L22D00D11D11D20W41W11DH·HAM27/01A·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02H·HIB24/02A·BIR02/03A·NAX08/03H·GUD17/03A·SIR06/04H·SLI14/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.270.691.441.571.07
vs Stronger (8)0.502.120.502.750.501.50
vs Similar (20)1.250.950.641.092.000.78
vs Weaker (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.2%
Under 1.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 3.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.0%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.6%
0-2
11.6%
1-2
8.7%
1-0 ✓
7.3%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
4.5%
Valletta FC goals ↓
Balzan FC goals →
01234
013%15%12%5.5%2.0%
17.3%13%8.7%4.1%1.5%
23.2%4.5%3.2%1.5%0.6%
30.8%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
40.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valletta FC goals (down), columns = Balzan FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Valletta FC is 0.27 points worse than Balzan FC in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Valletta FC and Balzan FC are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Valletta FC is 0.12 goals worse than Balzan FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valletta FCValletta FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D02L01L11D01L01L10WA·SIR28/01H·SLI03/02H·BIR09/02A·MOS17/02H·MAR25/02A·HAM02/03H·GZI10/03A·SAN16/03H·FLO06/04A·HIB14/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.200.730.600.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.220.560.200.730.250.33
vs Weaker (3)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L00D12L00D10W01L10W10W10WH·HAM27/01A·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02H·HIB24/02A·BIR02/03A·NAX08/03H·GUD17/03A·SIR06/04H·SLI14/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.440.500.500.36
vs Stronger (8)0.380.620.500.500.250.75
vs Similar (20)0.500.400.360.550.670.22
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valletta FCValletta FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D01L01L00D10W00D01L01L12LA·SIR28/01H·SLI03/02H·BIR09/02A·MOS17/02H·MAR25/02A·HAM02/03H·GZI10/03A·SAN16/03H·FLO06/04A·HIB14/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.400.400.800.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.520.480.400.400.670.58
vs Weaker (3)1.330.67--1.330.67
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L10W01L10W00D01L10W10W31W01LH·HAM27/01A·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02H·HIB24/02A·BIR02/03A·NAX08/03H·GUD17/03A·SIR06/04H·SLI14/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.250.941.070.71
vs Stronger (8)0.121.500.002.250.250.75
vs Similar (20)0.750.550.270.551.330.56
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Valletta FC's squad is €3m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Valletta FC and Balzan FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Valletta FC's midfield is €1m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€1m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Valletta FC's defence is €1m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
VF wins
2
Draws
0
BF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC · H/A from VF
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/23ABalzan FC Vs VF0-0
10/03/23HVF Vs Balzan FC0-0
29/10/22ABalzan FC Vs VF1-3

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24AHibernians Vs VF2-2
06/04/24HVF Vs Floriana0-2
16/03/24ASanta Lucía Vs VF2-0
10/03/24HVF Vs Gzira United1-1
02/03/24AHamrun Spartans Vs VF1-1
25/02/24HVF Vs Marsaxlokk0-2
17/02/24AMosta Vs VF1-0
09/02/24HVF Vs Birkirkara0-1
03/02/24HVF Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
28/01/24ASirens Vs VF0-3

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24HBF Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
06/04/24ASirens Vs BF1-4
17/03/24HBF Vs Gudja United2-0
08/03/24ANaxxar Lions Vs BF1-1
02/03/24ABirkirkara Vs BF1-1
24/02/24HBF Vs Hibernians0-0
18/02/24AFloriana Vs BF2-2
10/02/24HBF Vs Santa Lucía0-1
04/02/24AGzira United Vs BF1-1
27/01/24HBF Vs Hamrun Spartans1-7

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLD1.18
HomeDLLDL0.79
AwayWLDLD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%8%44%
AVG goals2.141.542.72
Over 1.5 %67%62%72%
Over 2.5 %33%12%52%
Over 3.5 %14%0%28%
Scored1.160.621.68
Conceded0.980.921.04
BTTS43%42%44%
Clean Sheet29%29%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.44
HomeLLDWD1.12
AwayDDDDW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%28%48%
AVG goals2.502.402.60
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.220.881.56
Conceded1.281.521.04
BTTS46%36%56%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners15.0015.5014.00
Cards6.677.505.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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