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Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk Result & Analysis

Date: 20/04/2023
Time: 18:30
Final 1-1
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Vs
26%
38%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valletta FC winâś— Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk winâś— Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D33D11D01L00D21W00D51W01L21WH·FLO29/01A·SIR01/02H·BIR05/02A·HAM11/02H·MOS19/02A·GZI05/03H·BAL10/03A·ZEB01/04H·SAN10/04A·GUD14/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.440.880.500.502.311.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.240.900.300.502.091.27
vs Weaker (4)2.500.751.500.503.501.00
Clean sheet %36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L00D11D10W11D11D31W12L23L15LH·GZI22/01A·BAL29/01H·ZEB05/02A·SAN12/02H·GUD18/02A·BIR05/03A·HIB11/03H·PIE02/04A·SIR08/04H·FLO14/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.081.480.922.001.250.92
vs Stronger (4)0.502.000.503.000.501.00
vs Similar (17)1.061.531.002.001.121.00
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.001.002.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%15%23%30%22%030%127%213%35%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.0%
Under 1.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
7.5%
Under 3.5
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
30.7%
No
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
22.0%
0-1
16.7%
1-1 âś“
14.0%
1-0
13.4%
0-2
7.8%
1-2
5.5%
2-0
5.2%
2-1
4.5%
Valletta FC goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
022%17%7.8%2.2%0.5%
113%14%5.5%1.6%0.3%
25.2%4.5%1.9%0.6%0.1%
31.2%1.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%
40.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valletta FC goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa LucĂ­a
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.46
Valletta FC is 0.46 points better than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.96).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa LucĂ­a
0.77
Valletta FC is 0.35 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa LucĂ­a
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
PietĂ  Hotspurs
2.50
Valletta FC is 0.58 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.46).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valletta FCValletta FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W11D01L00D10W00D20W01L20WH·FLO29/01A·SIR01/02H·BIR05/02A·HAM11/02H·MOS19/02A·GZI05/03H·BAL10/03A·ZEB01/04H·SAN10/04A·GUD14/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.360.170.420.920.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.480.380.200.400.730.36
vs Weaker (4)1.000.250.000.502.000.00
Clean sheet %64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W00D11D00D20W11D22D04LH·GZI22/01A·BAL29/01H·ZEB05/02A·SAN12/02H·GUD18/02A·BIR05/03A·HIB11/03H·PIE02/04A·SIR08/04H·FLO14/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.560.620.770.670.33
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.002.000.500.50
vs Similar (17)0.650.470.670.560.620.38
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %68% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valletta FCValletta FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L00D00D00D11D00D31W00D01LH·FLO29/01A·SIR01/02H·BIR05/02A·HAM11/02H·MOS19/02A·GZI05/03H·BAL10/03A·ZEB01/04H·SAN10/04A·GUD14/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.520.330.081.380.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.760.520.100.101.360.91
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.500.001.501.00
Clean sheet %68% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L10W00D11D11D01L01L11DH·GZI22/01A·BAL29/01H·ZEB05/02A·SAN12/02H·GUD18/02A·BIR05/03A·HIB11/03H·PIE02/04A·SIR08/04H·FLO14/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.440.920.311.230.580.58
vs Stronger (4)0.250.750.501.000.000.50
vs Similar (17)0.411.060.331.440.500.62
vs Weaker (4)0.750.500.000.501.500.50
Clean sheet %28% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.592.5%-------âś“ Hit
Under 2.579.0%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
VF wins
0
Draws
0
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from VF
DateH/AGameScore
11/12/22AMarsaxlokk Vs VF1-2

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/23AGudja United Vs VF1-2
10/04/23HVF Vs Santa LucĂ­a0-1
01/04/23AZebbug Rangers Vs VF1-5
10/03/23HVF Vs Balzan FC0-0
05/03/23AGzira United Vs VF1-2
19/02/23HVF Vs Mosta0-0
11/02/23AHamrun Spartans Vs VF1-0
05/02/23HVF Vs Birkirkara1-1
01/02/23ASirens Vs VF3-3
29/01/23HVF Vs Floriana0-0

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/23HMAR Vs Floriana1-5
08/04/23ASirens Vs MAR3-2
02/04/23HMAR Vs PietĂ  Hotspurs1-2
11/03/23AHibernians Vs MAR1-3
05/03/23ABirkirkara Vs MAR1-1
18/02/23HMAR Vs Gudja United1-1
12/02/23ASanta LucĂ­a Vs MAR0-1
05/02/23HMAR Vs Zebbug Rangers1-1
29/01/23ABalzan FC Vs MAR0-0
22/01/23HMAR Vs Gzira United0-3

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.44
HomeDDDDL0.92
AwayDLWWW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%8%62%
AVG goals2.321.003.54
Over 1.5 %60%33%85%
Over 2.5 %44%8%77%
Over 3.5 %24%0%46%
Scored1.440.502.31
Conceded0.880.501.23
BTTS40%25%54%
Clean Sheet36%50%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL0.96
HomeLDDLL0.54
AwayDWDWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%8%33%
AVG goals2.562.922.17
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %52%62%42%
Over 3.5 %20%23%17%
Scored1.080.921.25
Conceded1.482.000.92
BTTS68%77%58%
Clean Sheet20%8%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucĂ­aSanta LucĂ­a2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14PietĂ  HotspursPietĂ  Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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