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Valmiera II vs JDFS Alberts Result & Analysis

Date: 08/10/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 2-3
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Vs
33%
27%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera II wināœ— Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts wināœ“ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W12L31W13L12L02L00D22DH·SMI23/07A·SAL29/07H·TUK04/08H·DIN12/08H·RĒZ27/08A·RIG03/09A·BEI09/09H·GRO16/09A·JFK23/09A·RÄŖG29/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.532.001.191.711.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.191.752.291.432.112.00
vs Weaker (14)1.501.291.781.001.001.80
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W11D31W41W20W04L01L11D03L22DH·JFK08/07H·SKA23/07A·PRO30/07A·SMI05/08A·SAL12/08H·DIN26/08A·BEI02/09H·RĒZ17/09A·RIG24/09H·GRO30/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.971.871.271.930.67
vs Stronger (26)1.850.851.851.151.850.54
vs Similar (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Weaker (2)4.001.503.003.005.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
Under 2.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
Valmiera II goals ↓
JDFS Alberts goals →
01234
06.9%7.4%6.4%3.2%1.2%
16.6%13%8.7%4.4%1.6%
25.3%8.0%6.0%3.0%1.1%
32.4%3.6%2.7%1.4%0.5%
40.8%1.2%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera II goals (down), columns = JDFS Alberts goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
RÄ«gas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo RÄ«ga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Valmiera II is 0.73 points worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.81).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
RÄ«gas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo RÄ«ga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Valmiera II is 1.15 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 2.31).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
RÄ«gas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo RÄ«ga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Valmiera II is 0.15 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.38).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D02L10W02L10W00D00D01LH·SMI23/07A·SAL29/07H·TUK04/08H·DIN12/08H·RĒZ27/08A·RIG03/09A·BEI09/09H·GRO16/09A·JFK23/09A·RÄŖG29/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.571.060.381.210.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.380.561.140.431.560.67
vs Weaker (14)0.860.571.000.330.601.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W20W21W10W02L01L01L03L12LH·JFK08/07H·SKA23/07A·PRO30/07A·SMI05/08A·SAL12/08H·DIN26/08A·BEI02/09H·RĒZ17/09A·RIG24/09H·GRO30/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.470.930.530.930.40
vs Stronger (26)0.850.380.850.540.850.23
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.000.000.003.00
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W10W21W11D02L02L00D21WH·SMI23/07A·SAL29/07H·TUK04/08H·DIN12/08H·RĒZ27/08A·RIG03/09A·BEI09/09H·GRO16/09A·JFK23/09A·RÄŖG29/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.940.810.501.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.811.191.141.000.561.33
vs Weaker (14)0.640.710.780.670.400.80
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D20W10W02L00D10W00D10WH·JFK08/07H·SKA23/07A·PRO30/07A·SMI05/08A·SAL12/08H·DIN26/08A·BEI02/09H·RĒZ17/09A·RIG24/09H·GRO30/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.500.930.731.000.27
vs Stronger (26)1.000.461.000.621.000.31
vs Similar (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.002.002.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.2%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
VI wins
0
Draws
2
JA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valmiera II vs JDFS Alberts · H/A from VI
DateH/AGameScore
04/06/23AJDFS Alberts Vs VI5-1
02/09/22AJDFS Alberts Vs VI1-0
30/04/22HVI Vs JDFS Alberts2-0

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/23ARÄ«gas FS II Vs VI2-2
23/09/23AJFK Ventspils Vs VI0-0
16/09/23HVI Vs Grobiņa0-2
09/09/23ABeitar Vs VI2-1
03/09/23ARiga FC II Vs VI3-1
27/08/23HVI Vs Rēzekne FA3-1
12/08/23HVI Vs Dinamo RÄ«ga1-2
04/08/23HVI Vs Tukums II1-0
29/07/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs VI1-1
23/07/23HVI Vs Smiltene0-0

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HJA Vs Grobiņa2-2
24/09/23ARiga FC II Vs JA3-0
17/09/23HJA Vs Rēzekne FA1-1
02/09/23ABeitar Vs JA1-0
26/08/23HJA Vs Dinamo RÄ«ga0-4
12/08/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs JA0-2
05/08/23ASmiltene Vs JA1-4
30/07/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JA1-3
23/07/23HJA Vs Skanste1-1
08/07/23HJA Vs JFK Ventspils2-1

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.60
HomeDWLWL1.83
AwayDLLDD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%57%42%
AVG goals3.873.783.96
Over 1.5 %79%83%75%
Over 2.5 %64%61%67%
Over 3.5 %55%57%54%
Scored2.402.702.12
Conceded1.471.091.83
BTTS51%48%54%
Clean Sheet32%39%25%
Corners---
Cards---
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.70
HomeWDLDD1.67
AwayWWWLL1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%42%55%
AVG goals2.872.792.95
Over 1.5 %74%79%68%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %30%25%36%
Scored1.761.751.77
Conceded1.111.041.18
BTTS52%62%41%
Clean Sheet30%29%32%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RÄ«gaDinamo RÄ«ga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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