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Valmiera II vs Rēzekne FA Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Vs
84%
11%
5%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera II win✓ Hit
84.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
4.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W04L21W12L01L23L12L02L14L12LH·MĀR18/05A·OGR26/05H·SUP16/06A·RIG30/06A·SKA05/07A·JDF20/07A·LEE29/07A·RĪG03/08A·TUK09/08H·JFK18/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.631.691.311.241.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.191.381.431.291.001.44
vs Weaker (14)1.711.932.001.331.502.38
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L03L04L14L11D04L14L21W04L12LH·PRO12/05A·JDF19/05H·SMI25/05A·LEE15/06H·MĀR30/06A·RĪG06/07H·OGR21/07H·TUK26/07A·JFK11/08H·RIG17/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.673.131.002.360.383.81
vs Stronger (12)0.753.001.201.600.434.00
vs Similar (12)0.503.330.862.430.004.60
vs Weaker (6)0.833.001.004.000.752.50
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%2%07%116%220%320%416%520%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
75.5%
Under 2.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.7%
Under 3.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.7%
2-0 ✓
10.0%
4-0
8.7%
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.3%
4-1
6.3%
1-0
5.8%
5-0
5.6%
Valmiera II goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
01234
02.4%1.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
15.8%5.0%1.7%0.4%0.1%
210%7.3%2.7%0.7%0.1%
311%7.9%2.9%0.7%0.1%
48.7%6.3%2.3%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera II goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Valmiera II is 0.77 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 0.54).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Valmiera II is 0.88 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 0.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Valmiera II is 1.73 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 3.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L10W00D00D21W11D00D02L10WH·MĀR18/05A·OGR26/05H·SUP16/06A·RIG30/06A·SKA05/07A·JDF20/07A·LEE29/07A·RĪG03/08A·TUK09/08H·JFK18/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.770.770.590.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.560.710.570.330.56
vs Weaker (14)0.860.930.831.000.880.88
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L02L12L00D02L04L10W02L11DH·PRO12/05A·JDF19/05H·SMI25/05A·LEE15/06H·MĀR30/06A·RĪG06/07H·OGR21/07H·TUK26/07A·JFK11/08H·RIG17/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.370.501.290.121.44
vs Stronger (12)0.251.580.601.400.001.71
vs Similar (12)0.251.250.431.290.001.20
vs Weaker (6)0.501.170.501.000.501.25
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L11D12L01L02L01L02L12L02LH·MĀR18/05A·OGR26/05H·SUP16/06A·RIG30/06A·SKA05/07A·JDF20/07A·LEE29/07A·RĪG03/08A·TUK09/08H·JFK18/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.900.920.540.651.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.810.710.710.670.89
vs Weaker (14)0.861.001.170.330.621.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L02L02L11D02L10W11D02L01LH·PRO12/05A·JDF19/05H·SMI25/05A·LEE15/06H·MĀR30/06A·RĪG06/07H·OGR21/07H·TUK26/07A·JFK11/08H·RIG17/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.770.501.070.252.38
vs Stronger (12)0.501.420.600.200.432.29
vs Similar (12)0.252.080.431.140.003.40
vs Weaker (6)0.331.830.503.000.251.25
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.9%-------✓ Hit
Home win84.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.575.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
VI wins
0
Draws
2
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valmiera II vs Rēzekne FA · H/A from VI
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/24ARēzekne FA Vs VI1-0
27/08/23HVI Vs Rēzekne FA3-1
29/04/23ARēzekne FA Vs VI0-1
05/11/22HVI Vs Rēzekne FA4-0
23/07/22ARēzekne FA Vs VI4-0

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/24HVI Vs JFK Ventspils1-2
09/08/24ATukums II Vs VI4-1
03/08/24ARīgas FS II Vs VI2-0
29/07/24ALeevon / PPK Vs VI2-1
20/07/24AJDFS Alberts Vs VI3-2
05/07/24ASkanste Vs VI1-0
30/06/24ARiga FC II Vs VI2-1
16/06/24HVI Vs Super Nova2-1
26/05/24AOgre United Vs VI4-0
18/05/24HVI Vs Mārupe4-0

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24HRF Vs Riga FC II1-2
11/08/24AJFK Ventspils Vs RF4-0
26/07/24HRF Vs Tukums II2-1
21/07/24HRF Vs Ogre United1-4
06/07/24ARīgas FS II Vs RF4-0
30/06/24HRF Vs Mārupe1-1
15/06/24ALeevon / PPK Vs RF4-1
25/05/24HRF Vs Smiltene0-4
19/05/24AJDFS Alberts Vs RF3-0
12/05/24HRF Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.20
HomeWWWWL1.46
AwayLLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%27%
AVG goals3.323.123.50
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored1.681.831.54
Conceded1.641.291.96
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.56
HomeLDLWL0.81
AwayLLLLL0.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%23%4%
AVG goals3.783.424.17
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %70%69%71%
Over 3.5 %50%42%58%
Scored0.841.190.46
Conceded2.942.233.71
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet8%12%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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