Van and BKMA face a finely balanced contest, each with a 37% chance of victory and a 27% chance of a draw, leaving the model’s pick a home win. The match is expected to see three goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 24% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Van’s home form shows an average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while BKMA’s away form averages 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Under 5.5 (92.0%), Under 4.5 (82.1%), Away +2 handicap (82.0%), and Home +2 handicap (81.9%). Van’s recent run of LDLLL, ending with a 0-4 loss to Shirak, contrasts with BKMA’s last five of WLLLD, capped by a 3-0 win over Gandzasar.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Van win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA win
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.87
1.27
1.73
0.60
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.31
1.20
1.80
0.38
2.62
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.53
1.30
1.70
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.53
0.93
1.27
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
2.19
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.38
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
0.86
0.43
1.57
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
6.8%
1-0
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
6.0%
Van goals ↓
BKMA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.8%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.5%
13%
8.6%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.2%
6.2%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.6%
3.9%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Van goals (down), columns = BKMA goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Van is 0.63 points worse than BKMA in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Van is 0.47 goals worse than BKMA in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Van is 1.80 goals worse than BKMA in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Van or Draw
62.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Van + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van or BKMA
73.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Van + BKMA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BKMA
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Draw + BKMA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Van over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Van, so a minus line means Van give that many goals of a start and BKMA receive them. At -1, Van must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Van win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Van)
Van -2
6.3%
Draw -2
10.6%
BKMA +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Van)
Van -1
17.0%
Draw -1
18.2%
BKMA +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Van)
Van +1
62.1%
Draw +1
19.1%
BKMA -1
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Van)
Van +2
81.1%
Draw +2
11.6%
BKMA -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.08
0.40
0.40
0.12
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.94
0.50
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.27
0.53
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.88
0.12
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.43
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
Under 0.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.1%
Under 1.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.0%
Under 2.5
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Van over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.80
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.80
0.70
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.31
0.88
1.25
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.43
0.14
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.1%
Under 1.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Van over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Van and BKMA have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Van and BKMA have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Van and BKMA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Van and BKMA have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik